A clear top two, but No.3 seed up for grabs in AFL’s wide-open race: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

A clear top two seeds have emerged after a month of footy but figuring out the No.3 seed, right now at least, is nearly impossible. So who’s the interim titleholder?

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. MELBOURNE (3-1, 149.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

Our top two seeds flip, thanks to the Magpies’ risk-taking flaws being exposed by the Lions, and yet another dominant Demons performances. Make that three 50-point wins in four weeks for the 2021 premiers, who look to be back near their best even without Max Gawn in the side. They should be at least 7-2 by the time he’s ready to return, with the Bombers, Tigers, Kangaroos, Suns and Hawks over the next five weeks, but it’s not like Melbourne has looked particularly troubled by his absence. Their ball movement in particular has been praiseworthy. And if you’re not ahead of this team at the final break, look out, because the Demons are unbeaten in fourth quarters – their 22 goals in those terms is the most of any team in any quarter this year.

Next game: Essendon at Adelaide Oval, Saturday twilight

2. COLLINGWOOD (3-1, 122.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

We wrote last week about an apparent lack of weaknesses in this group. And in terms of talent across the ground we’ll stick with that. But even during their blistering start to the season many experts pointed out their daring ball movement and high pressing made them vulnerable defensively – it’s just that nobody had exploited it yet. Brisbane did, and proved you can win a shootout against Craig McRae’s men, who weren’t exactly helped by the absence of Darcy Cameron in the ruck; but that also wasn’t the main problem because they still won the scoring from stoppages battle. The Pies are still in our clear top two but the way their first loss came about was more concerning than the way the Demons’ did (a significant early-game injury plus the opposition scoring from forward stoppages way, way more than usual).

Next game: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval, Sunday twilight

3. ST KILDA (4-0, 160.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

Do we think the Saints are the third-most likely team to win the flag? No. But we have to give them respect for not just being unbeaten, but winning well; we respect big victories more than just victories. We’re only a month in so you can’t read too much into this, but their percentage is the best in the AFL, which certainly isn’t a bad thing. Their attack is working shockingly well for being without Tim Membrey and Max King, and they may regain the former this week for their first true test of the season against Collingwood. They don’t need to win to prove they’re a legit finals contender, but it’d help. Heck if they look as good against the Magpies as they’ve looked against their first four opponents, we have to consider them an actual top four threat. We’re expecting a valiant loss though.

Next game: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Sunday twilight

4. CARLTON (3-0-1, 114.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

Many would have the Blues as their third seed right now, but while the results are good, the performances themselves are a lot more questionable. Undoubtedly they’ve got some good ins this week, led by Sam Walsh, and he’s particularly important to a midfield that is really underperforming. You don’t want to rely on scoring from stoppages like Carlton did last year, because scoring from turnover is more sustainable, but you want to at least be OK at it. And right now the Blues are last in the AFL. (Yes, the team with the reigning Brownlow Medal-winning midfielder.) The Crows will be a fascinating test because they can certainly score on you, whereas the Blues are the lowest-scoring team in the top eight. They’ll need to pick up the pace on Thursday night.

Next game: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Thursday night

5. SYDNEY SWANS (2-2, 126.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

Make it two wobbles in two weeks – just two very different types of wobbles. The Swans looked to be well on their way against the Power at two different points of the match, and heck, until the final moments of the arc of Ollie Florent’s shot on goal it looked like they’d conjured up a miracle win. (That ball movement to set up the kick was incredible – very reminiscent of Collingwood vs Essendon last year which ended in the Jamie Elliott goal. Shame close games involve so much luc-wait let’s not use that word…) In the short term, the concussions for the McCartins are more concerning than Buddy’s absence for this Friday night against the Tigers. (Long-term, too, given we were already concerned about Paddy returning to footy before he joined the Swans.) It should be a damn good game, but no matter the result we’re not too worried about John Longmire’s men. We’ve written it before and we’ll write it again – the Swans will be thereabouts all year. They’re a contender, just maybe not a tippy-top one.

Next game: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Friday night

6. BRISBANE LIONS (2-2, 93.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

We’ve sort of split the difference with this Brisbane ranking. The home Lions would rank third; the away Lions would be down around 12th. We’ve seen teams play differently at home and away for years but it’s been a remarkably stark difference for Chris Fagan’s men this year. You can’t put that all down to being used to the humidity and ground itself – there has to be a way to unlock the obvious talent in this group more consistently. They haven’t won more than two games in a row since May last year; with the Kangaroos and Giants over the next fortnight, this needs to be when they end that anti-streak.

Next game: North Melbourne at Adelaide Hills, Saturday early

7. GEELONG (1-3, 109.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

That win over Hawthorn was perhaps the most confusing result possible. How do you come away worried for a team after an 82-point win? Well, you see how they played in the first half, when the exact same problems around the ground persisted – a languid game style, poor contested work and out-of-character mistakes. Then came the second half, and one of the most dominant third quarters in VFL-AFL history. It was exactly what the Cats needed but are we supposed to believe they’re going to consistently be that team from the second half from now on? The premiers need to rebuild trust, and cleanly taking care of business against the Eagles is the next step.

Next game: West Coast Eagles at Adelaide Oval, Sunday early

8. RICHMOND (1-2-1, 104.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

The Tigers just feel kind of awkward right now. They don’t have a clear and obvious game plan, as they did during their recent dynasty. The narrative around them is that the midfield is struggling but that’s wrong – they’ve won the clearances in three of their four games; it’s more about the kicking, which let them down badly in three of the four quarters against the Bulldogs. (Unsurprisingly in the one term they kicked well, they were dominant.) And from a list perspective, they’re trying to awkwardly straddle the line between two worlds – building for the future and remaining competitive with what’s left of their premiership core. Almost all of their key players are either 25 and under, or 29 and older – they’re a doughnut, with a hole in the middle where the prime-aged stars should be. With Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis sidelined for at least a month each, a top-four finish suddenly seems quite unlikely, but we’re not jumping off them as a finals contender yet. After all we’ve seen them dig out of an early season hole before.

Next game: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval, Friday night

9. ADELAIDE CROWS (2-2, 105.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

We felt a bit silly putting the Crows as low as we did last week, and even sillier after watching them comprehensively pick apart Fremantle on the weekend. This team is good, and a legitimate finals contender. Their ball movement is electric, despite not having a dominant midfield, and because they’re using the footy so well it’s allowing their powerful forward line to fire. They were the first team to kick 100 points against the Dockers since 2021, and they’re currently No.1 in the AFL for scores per inside 50 at 50.7 per cent. And keep in mind the Crows are still young – per the excellent The Shinboner blog, only the Bombers, Dockers, Suns and Hawks have given a larger proportion of their minutes this season to players aged 22 and under. They’re not perfect but they’re coming, and Thursday night is the perfect opportunity on the national stage to show the footy world September is attainable.

Next game: Carlton at Adelaide Oval, Thursday night

10. PORT ADELAIDE (2-2, 88.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

Please don’t look at the drop in their ranking and get angry at us (you probably already did on social media without reading this… but then you’re not reading this… hmm). Clearly the win over Sydney was big, and it means they’re going to get out of a very tricky first five weeks with at least a couple of wins, and likely three given they’re favoured against the Bulldogs. That’s a great base to begin a finals campaign. It’s just that the middle of the pack is so jumbled right now, with so many candidates for the eight with still so many questions, and we had to vault Adelaide up… and so Port are 10th. We still believe in them. If they beat the Dogs, they’ve got a very kind patch of games against West Coast, St Kilda (away), Essendon and North Melbourne (away). Put it all together and they could certainly be 6-3 by the time they host Melbourne in what would be a big Friday night encounter.

Next game: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, Saturday night

11. WESTERN BULLDOGS (2-2, 76.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

It may look harsh to have the Bulldogs dropping a position despite a very solid win against Richmond, but that’s more about us just believing in Adelaide and Port Adelaide (and yeah the Dogs should be above Richmond based on head-to-head, but Richmond should be above Adelaide, etc). The last two weeks have us back believing the Dogs can be the team we expected to see pre-season – solid, and able to compete with some of the better teams, but broadly speaking a mid-table side with flaws. Having said that let’s make sure to give Tim English his praise – he’s second overall in the AFL Player Ratings and was arguably the best player on the ground against the Tigers.

Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday night

12. ESSENDON (3-1, 126.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

Play time is over. The Bombers are St Kilda light so far this season – looking genuinely improved, but against a relatively easy slate of opponents. Now the fixture picks up and it’s time to see whether their flaws will be exposed. Their defence remains iffy, though their actual back six is performing well when the ball gets inside 50. It’s just that teams with strong ball movement are probably going to carve them up. And Melbourne has very strong ball movement. And then comes Collingwood. And then Geelong (who might be properly up and running by then). And then Port Adelaide and Brisbane away… yeah… this might be about to go sour. Or we’re wrong and Essendon is actually good! Those are the two options here, effectively. We look forward to learning the answer.

Next game: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Saturday twilight

13. FREMANTLE (1-3, 95.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

Unless something drastically changes we can’t see the Dockers playing finals. It’s just a numbers game at some point. Coming into the year with a first month of Saints, Roos, Eagles and Crows – four non-finalists from 2022 – you would’ve expected Fremantle to be 3-1 at minimum, if not 4-0. Instead they’ve gone 1-3 and looked awful doing it. If they don’t beat the Suns they’re going to have to win 12 of their last 18 matches to make the eight, and what possible reason have they given us to believe they can do that?

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at Norwood Oval, Friday twilight

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (1-3, 71.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

We found Jonathan Brown’s comments on Monday night, suggesting hard standards aren’t being driven at the Suns because officials have felt like they need to “walk on eggshells” around players, rather interesting. He wasn’t just shooting from the hip – Brown now lives on the Gold Coast and spent time inside the club during the off-season, plus he obviously knows people inside the AFL industry. So we wonder if that helps explain a couple of performances this year where the Suns have looked less than energetic and committed. There have been enough positive signs on talent alone – Matt Rowell the standard – that this group should be better than this, even though they’re still very young. Lose to the similarly dour Dockers and it’s hard to see Gold Coast taking a step forwards from 2022 to 2023, which will be a real problem for Stuart Dew as the club brings in a new chairman – Bob East – replacing Dew backer Tony Cochrane.

Next game: Fremantle at Norwood Oval, Friday twilight

15. GWS GIANTS (1-3, 92.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

The problem for the Giants is that while they keep being competitive – 13-point losers to Essendon, 10 to Carlton, 19 to GWS – they’re not actually winning these winnable games. They’ve got one more this week against the Hawks, who are likely to be without young star Will Day, but then over seven rounds the Giants play six 2022 finalists plus current ladder leaders St Kilda. So they’d better get that second win on the board now while they can, because a reasonably positive year could suddenly look a whole lot more negative.

Next game: Hawthorn at Norwood Oval, Sunday afternoon

16. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-2, 89.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

We were tempted to push the Kangaroos up even higher after their Good Friday performance, which was certainly competitive, and in many ways even good. They tried their best but the match-up against Curnow and McKay with their lack of fit tall defenders was an issue, and remarkably the Blues kicked five goals in the second half from kick-ins – that is incredibly uncommon. In fact on expected score North should’ve beaten Carlton. We think that’s a bit skewed by how the latter stages of the game played out but they were definitely in the mix.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Hills, Saturday early

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-3, 77.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

A competitive half against the best team in the competition right now is pretty much all we could reasonably expect from the current version of West Coast, so Sunday was solid (if still understandably disappointing with the way it blew out after the long break). But now we must pose a question – should the Eagles be happy with their Round 5 fixture, because they don’t have to play Geelong in Geelong, or annoyed they’re not getting them in Perth? Given the fact they’ve lost by 85, 92 and 97 points in their last three visits to GMHBA Stadium we’re going to say happy. Plus, the Eagles have a 9-4 record all time at Adelaide Oval.

Next game: Geelong Cats at Adelaide Oval, Sunday early

18. HAWTHORN (1-3, 52.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

Well, the first half was fun. And while it may have been down to Geelong being particularly bad than Hawthorn being particularly good, it was still a promising two quarters of footy from the young midfield. Being without Will Day for two winnable games – GWS and then Adelaide down in Tassie – is less than ideal, though we wouldn’t be shocked if the Hawks challenged his dangerous tackle ban. After all he might be their best player very soon.

Next game: GWS Giants at Norwood Oval, Sunday afternoon