By Nick Berney
Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 – 1:25pm: GRAINSHAKER VODKA MAIDEN PLATE (1400 METRES)
12. Vienna Princess was restrained from a wide-draw first-up at Doomben and had too much to do. Further, she wasn’t suited to settling worse than midfield in an even tempo and had to make a long wide sustained run.
Warwick Farm will host an eight-race meeting on Monday.Credit:Getty
The filly ran on well, clocking one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting in 11.37 and maintaining a strong finishing speed to the line. The Chris Waller-trained galloper will be fitter for that after only having one soft trial before that event and is suited up in distance. In addition, second-up last prep, she produced her career peak on rain-affected ground and that figure lines up well against her opposition. Each-way.
Dangers: 1. Atlantic Ocean raced well in his first-career prep and brings strong form lines to this. The colt has trialled well and has a favourable race setup here. Moreover, he maps well, is on an upwards ratings spiral and is a key late market watch. 11. Showsumgrit’s last start at Canterbury had merit in a high-rating race relative to the day, albeit starting at $101. She is a knockout chance who brings a fitness edge, and the step up to 1400m is ideal. 6. Showcourt returns as a gelding and has always promised ability. The three-year-old has started a respectable price against Fireburn/Sejardan in stronger grade and can undoubtedly win. 4. Okataina is wound up for this and will give a sight.
How to play it: Vienna Princess E/W. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 2 – 2:00pm: COOLMORE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Leaning towards 4. Plymstock, who resumes and has trialled well in a recent heat at Warwick Farm behind subsequent winner Economics. Further, he closed off well under light riding and ran strong closing splits relative to the morning. The three-year-old’s career peak figures have both come fresh, and although drawn awkwardly, she receives James McDonald for the first time and may get the track pattern to suit.
Dangers: 7. Spicy Hotpot went out an impressive winner before spelling last prep and looks to have come back improved. The Mark Newnham-trained galloper is wound up for this after two impressive trials and can have the last shot. 3. Master Showman is coming out of a high-rating race, and the blinkers go back on. Expect an aggressive ride early to use his fitness edge. 1. Shalailed brings the best last start figure and will be fitter from his first-up run.
How to play it: Plymstock WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 – 2:35pm: RANVET HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
Forget 1. Kallos last start in the Listed Chautauqua Stakes (1200m) where he was specked $13-$10 late in the trade but pulled up with a slow recovery rate and had excuses. The four-year-old has since returned to the trials and wasn’t extended in a strong time/form heat. Further, the Godolphin runner has elite form lines throughout his career, maps favourably to absorb the anticipated fast tempo, and his class will take him a long way.
Dangers: 4. Remlaps Gem resumes and has trialled well in solid time at Scone. The six-year-old has a fantastic record and brings multiple winning figures to this event. Moreover, he will roll forward with his natural gate speed and will take some catching. 6. Nasturtium had the pace/bias against last and battled on ok in stronger grade. Some query back in distance, but he is a key late market watch. 5. Washington Towers, a knockout chance, gets in well at the weights after the claim for Ellen Hennessy and is proven on rain-affected ground.
How to play it: Kallos WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 – 3:10pm: FUJITSU GENERAL HANDICAP (2200 METRES)
7. Left Reeling had every chance last start when winning at Newcastle 17 days ago, but she did it in style and ran a fast time. Moreover, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the decisive margins throughout confirm the quality.
To further the merit of her performance, she clocked one of the fastest final 400m splits of the entire meeting in 24.64. The four-year-old mare has a strong platform for this event, a solid starting price profile and is suited to the rain-affected ground. In addition, she is a consistent type and brings the clear best last start figure. Hard to beat.
Dangers: Import 1. Iowa comes through the same race as Left Reeling, and he ran on well in his Australian debut. The five-year-old will be fitter for that effort and is suited over a further distance. Additionally, he has overseas figures that line up well here and is a key late market watch. 8. Lord Desanimaux is rock-hard fit and drops in grade. He can bounce back with a favourable map and won at this track two starts ago. 2. Inuwashi had excuses last start and add 9. Microna to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Left Reeling WIN. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 5 – 3:50pm: THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Nothing has gone right for 2. Party For One this preparation and expecting significant improvement here. The four-year-old mare was unsuited by the slow tempo last start at Canterbury 12 days ago and never saw a clear passage after being checked/blocked for most of the straight. The blinkers go back on, and she produced her career peak figure last time this gear change was utilised. Further, she has strong form lines around the likes of Mr Mozart/Espiona, can be within striking distance due to the small field, and the rise to 1400m is ideal. In addition, it’s worth noting that the trainer/jockey combination has a 19.5% strike rate at a profit on turnover of 57.5%.
Dangers: 6. Short Shorts had all favours winning first-up at this track but was brave when challenged. The mare maps to get a similar run to last start and will take some catching. 3. Sunrise Ruby was solid last start in the Listed Mona Lisa Stakes (1350m) at Wyong, and the 31 days between runs suits her profile. 1. Shihonka has raced wide her last two runs and is a key late market watch.
How to play it: Party For One WIN. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 6 – 4:30PM VINERY STALLIONS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
8. Sindacato, who represents value, had no luck at Randwick last start in a stronger grade after racing wide throughout, and he battled on ok. Prior to his first-up run, he trialled well and went through the line full of energy and wasn’t extended.
The seven-year-old brings solid form lines from past preparations and started a respective price against the likes of Taksu and Bankers Choice. Further, this is now his third preparation under the guidance of Chris Waller and expecting improvement from him with a significant barrier change. In addition, he maps to have all favours and can rate to win. Each-way.
Dangers: 2. Democracy Manifest is a consistent type and returned one of his career peak figures first-up and ran time. Moreover, he clocked one of the fastest 400m-200m splits of the meeting in 10.84. He has to stretch out to the 1400m for the first time, but he gets his chance here. Add 13. Redwood Shadow and 3. Easy Campese to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Sindacato E/W. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 7 – 5:10pm: FURPHY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
5. Shadow Devil had too much to do first-up at this track/distance 19 days ago and was outstanding in defeat, savaging the line into second place. The four-year-old got too far back in a big field and had to make a long-wide sustained run. Moreover, he clocked the fastest final 600m sectional of the entire meeting in 32.88. To further the merit of his performance, the race rated highly relative to the day after adjustments. The Mark Newnham-trained galloper can be within striking distance with the smaller field, has a solid starting price profile compared to his main dangers, and Josh Parr rides for the first time. Expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 6. Stromboli comes through the same race as Shadow Devil, and he meets that galloper 3.5kg better off at the weights after the claim for apprentice Zac Lloyd. He receives a significant barrier change, maps to lead to control the pace and will take some catching. 1. I Am Lethal brings superior form lines to this event and can undoubtedly win just some queries on a testing surface. 9. Showtime Lady resumes and first-up last prep she produced her career peak figure that lines up well here.
How to play it: Shadow Devil WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 8 – 5:50pm: TAB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
9. Money From The Sky had too much to do first-up at Kembla after getting too far back in a farcical tempo and was mathematically out of the race. The four-year-old made significant ground in the final straight and clocked the entire meeting’s fastest final 400m split in 22.52. Additionally, he maintained a strong finishing speed running into second place and beating the rest easily. Second-up last campaign, he produced his career peak figure on rain-affected ground over 1600m and gets a similar setup in this event. The Mark Newnham-trained runner receives Josh Parr, and although he maps to settle worse than midfield, expect him to be savaging the line with a more genuine anticipated tempo. Each-way.
Dangers: Key market watch on the Chris Waller import 7. Estadio Mestalla, who was a dominant winner overseas before arriving in Australia. The gelding has had 334 days off the scene but resumes with two jump-outs under his belt. 10. Super has been racing more consistently as of late and maps to have all favours. 2. Kokoro, who is in career-best form, has the ability but some query on a testing track. Add Pharoahs Reign to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Money From The Sky E/W. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Best Bet: Race 4 # 7 – Left Reeling
Next Best: Race 7 # 5 – Shadow Devil
Best Value: Race 8 # 9 – Money From The Sky
