View our interactives to find out what gives the world No.1 the edge over up-and-comers Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Ben Shelton.
Novak Djokovic is still ahead of Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton and Jannik Sinner.Credit: Marija Ercegovac
Novak Djokovic is 16 years older and five centimetres taller than Carlos Alcaraz. He’s won 22 more grand slam singles titles, appeared in 36 major singles finals to Alcaraz’s two, and has earned $US180 million ($264.4 million) on tour compared with the young Spaniard’s $US22.5 million ($33 million).
Alcaraz could win two grand slam titles a year for the next decade, and he’d still trail Djokovic on that score, while Jannik Sinner – the young Italian viewed as next in line to challenge Djokovic and Alcaraz for supremacy – is yet to make a final of one of the sport’s feted four events.
Remarkably, there is still a gap between world No.1 Djokovic and the tyros seeking to wrest the crown finally from him.
Here, in Melbourne, the only opponent to have seen off the Serb over the past five years has been the Australian government, which refused to let him play in 2022’s no-vax Novak drama.
Novak Djokovic playing in the Australian Open final against Stefanos Tsitsipas last year.Credit: AP
Simon Rea, who coached Nick Kyrgios in the Australian’s less tempestuous early days on tour, investigated the question of what, if anything, separates Djokovic – now the most successful male in the sport (based on major titles) – from the pack chasing him. Generation Next is led by world No.2 Alcaraz, plus Sinner (four). For good measure, Rea counted big-serving American Ben Shelton (ranked 16 in the world) in his analysis.
Rea, senior manager of game analysis for Tennis Australia, broke down Djokovic’s game, pinpointing where the indefatigable Novak held an edge – deploying seldom-seen data in an in-depth comparison with the up-and-comers.
How the young guns measure up for speed and spin
One could argue that neither Djokovic nor Alcaraz should be at the apex of men’s tennis, given that Djokovic is 10 years older than Bjorn Borg when the phlegmatic Swede retired from tennis, while Alcaraz is just 20.
Alcaraz has already surpassed Djokovic on one measure – he had two grand slam titles in the bag by the age of 20 and four months. Djokovic didn’t claim the first of his 24 majors, the 2008 Australian Open, until he was a few months older (Roger Federer did not win a major until he was nearly 22). In this extreme precocity, Alcaraz more resembles his Spanish compatriot Rafael Nadal, the only player to have a head-to-head lead over Djokovic in majors (11-7, but Djokovic leads Nadal 30-29 overall).
On other key measures, such as hitting with speed and spin, Djokovic more or less matches it with Alcaraz and Sinner.
His topspin forehand, indeed, was recorded as faster (130.7 km/h) than that pair, although his forehand was found to be less heavily spun (2843 rotations a minute) compared with that of Alcaraz (3085), whose game was built on a base of Spanish clay.
On return of serve, the old Djoker is again around the same level as the next-generation duo. Here, Djokovic ranks fourth for points won on return of second serves, just behind Sinner (first) and Alcaraz (third) in 2023. On deciding sets won in 2023, Djokovic ranks sixth, splitting Sinner (second) and Alcaraz (eighth).
So, how does Djokovic stay ahead of the pack?
Rea’s analysis found that in the clutch moments, the Serb is nonpareil. The following charts show that his edge lies in the following areas: on his own second serve, in tie-breaks and in winning the big points, especially over five sets.
“There’s one or two areas in which I think they’ve got a fair margin still to peg back [from Djokovic],” Rea said. “I think you can make the case that he’s getting better.”
It’s all about the second serve
Djokovic has never owned a serve as potent as that of the great American Pete Sampras, although his average velocity of 194.5 km/h on his first serve is more than respectable – about the same as Sinner and slightly quicker than Alcaraz. Shelton, for what it’s worth, has a thunderbolt serve (203.2 km/h on first serve) but doesn’t have the same proficiency at the baseline.
On the key measure of points won on second serve – when nerves are tested and the returner is up on his toes and dangerous – Djokovic is the best on tour, period, to purloin American punctuation.
John Newcombe’s maxim that “you’re only as good as your second serve” is supported by the rankings for second serve points won in 2023: 1. Djokovic, 2. Sinner, 3. Alcaraz.
Rea reckons Djokovic’s serve has been underrated, and we should bear in mind, too, how that metronomic serve is fortified with follow-up shots. Djokovic, revealingly, doesn’t rely on his forehand for his third shot (64 per cent) as much as his competitors (Alcaraz 79 per cent, Sinner 69, Shelton 75). By not running around to hit forehands as often, he creates more options (and space).
When up against the tour’s top 20, Djokovic remains a notch ahead on the second serve. He won 58 per cent of his second-serve points against the top 20-ranked men during 2023. Alcaraz and Sinner managed about 54 per cent versus the top 20 – a clear edge to Djokovic.
Now look at where the four players stand to return their opponents’ second serve. Alcaraz is the most aggressive of the quartet, meeting 99 per cent of second serves inside the baseline to Djokovic’s 86 per cent. Shelton gives himself more time, taking most returns more than two metres behind the baseline. But as you can see from the graphic (further down) showing how the four players perform in clutch moments, Sinner is No.1 on the tour for points won returning second serves.
The next chart shows that the contrast between the four players is less stark when we look at where on the court they hit their groundstrokes.
The key to Djokovic’s dominance, though, is that he can defend with the best on the tour across five sets, and win the points that count most.
He’s (almost) unbreakable in tie-breakers
If you’re watching Djokovic at a major event and vainly barracking against him – as millions of Federer-philes and Nadalites invariably did – you’re right to dread him levelling at 6-6.
Djokovic won a staggering 78 per cent of his tie-breakers during 2023, to lead the tour in that crucial test of a player’s nerves and control. “What happens in the biggest points matters most,” said Rea.
That’s why Alcaraz’s dazzling Wimbledon success last year, when he overcame Djokovic in a classic five-set final, was such a breakthrough for the young Spaniard. The match turned on the second-set tie-breaker, when Alcaraz was staring at a two-set deficit.
If there’s a match that has defined Djokovic’s relentless ways, it’s probably the 2019 Wimbledon final, which Federer won on nearly every statistical category, except that Djokovic won three sets in tie-breakers, taking the fifth 13-12 after saving multiple match points.
The famous 2019 Wimbledon final.Credit: AP
To overcome Djokovic in Melbourne, where he’s not lost since 2018, is of another order to beating him in say, Basel or Dubai, over best of three. “What he asks you to do is to repeat that over five sets in grand slam tennis,” said Rea.
Alcaraz achieved that at Wimbledon in 2023. Sinner’s only career victory over Djokovic was in the Davis Cup semi-final over best of three this year. “Sinner’s coming with a rush,” said Rea, who had the 22-year-old Italian “marginally” ahead of Alcaraz, as a prospective threat to Djokovic in this event, based on momentum and form.
As the game gets more physical, so does he
This chart, showing how much ground Djokovic has covered in his past four Australian Opens, backs up the argument that he is getting better as the game becomes more physical.
Djokovic ran further to win the 2023 Australian Open than he did in 2019, 2020 and 2021 – the distance gradually climbing over those four victories from 13 kilometres to 16 kilometres last year.
For a point of comparison, he spent much less time on court than Nadal in 2022, when Rafa won exhausting five-setters in the quarter-finals and again in that goosebump-inducing comeback (from two sets down) over Daniil Medvedev in the final. Yet Djokovic, who lost only one set in Melbourne last year, still covered more territory than Nadal 12 months earlier (with fewer sprints).
Why was Djokovic running further, even without losing sets? “The game inarguably is becoming more physical year-on-year,” explained Rea.
Rea estimates Djokovic covers about 650 metres a set, and Sinner closer to 700. Of course, the Serb’s cumulative distance covered at the Open is greater than any other player because he always makes the final.
What the data shows, though, is that what sets Djokovic apart isn’t simply what he does, but when he does it. “The games of Alcaraz and Sinner stack up very similarly to Novak’s from a data perspective,” said Rea, noting the fine margins at the end of grand slam events.
“Novak, incredibly, still manages to separate himself when all else is even with his sublime performance on the points that matter most.”
Watch all the Australian Open action live on Nine, 9Gem, 9Now and Stan Sport from Sunday, January 14.
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