There is no shortage of mouth-watering positional battles in the Grand Final, with the winner of the individual match-ups set to have a huge impact on who takes home the NRL trophy.
From Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses in the halves and Dylan Edwards and Clint Gutherson at the back to Reagan Campbell-Gillard and James Fisher-Harris up front, the stage is set for an epic encounter between the Panthers and the Eels.
Read on for foxsports.com.au’s analysis of where the Grand Final will be won and lost.
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How the Eels plan to slow down Cleary | 04:02
BACK FIVE
The battle of the fullbacks will be a key match-up with both Clint Gutherson and Dylan Edwards basing their games on extreme effort and energy. Edwards has been in sparkling form all season, while Gutherson’s form has mirrored his team in that it has been up and down all year, but he is peaking at the right time. The tries that these two No.1’s save could prove more crucial to the result than the ones they set up or score. Edwards, who typically flys under the radar in such a star-studded team, was lauded by his teammates this year.
“This year, you just see what he is doing, it is just mind-blowing what he does week in week out, no matter how sore his body is,” Liam Martin told foxsports.com.au this week.
“On both sides of the ball, he is a freak of an athlete, his aerobic capacity to do what he does is unbelievable,” Mitch Kenny added
The battle of the wingers will also be crucial to the result. Brian To’o was arguably the best player on the field in the preliminary final against Souths and got his team back in the contest with a number of brilliant charges and a freak long-range try. His work out of yardage will be crucial for the Panthers. Charlie Staines was targeted by Souths and was met with heavy defence every time he touched the ball and the Eels may opt to put him under similar pressure to find a chink in Penrith’s armour. However, Staines weathered the storm against Souths and finished the game strongly and he has a proven record as a finisher. Maika Sivo played a pivotal role in his side’s preliminary final win and came up with a number of brilliant plays in attack and defence to help his side to a comeback victory. His ability to save a try could prove crucial against a brilliant Panthers backline, but he will need to continue to finish his opportunities because the Eels need points to beat Penrith. Waqa Blake woeful recent form under the high ball is the biggest question mark over the Eels’ backline. Nathan Cleary is set to pepper Blake with bombs in the decider and how he handles them could have a huge impact on the result. The Panthers have a devastating centre partnership of Stephen Crichton, who plucked an intercept to win the title last season, while Izack Tago has had a breakout year since replacing Paul Momirovski. Both players are solid defenders and are capable of breaking the game open with their running game. Will Penisini has also had a breakout year for the Eels and offers real strike and some X-factor on the edge for Parramatta. Bailey Simonsson has played more wing in his career to date, but stepped up in place of the injured Tom Opacic in the preliminary final. However, his defence will be severely tested by the Panthers halves and centres on the edge. It will be interesting to see if Simonsson switches in and out with Blake to ease the pressure on him and to share the load of catching Cleary’s brilliant spiralling kicks.
Verdict: Panthers
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HALVES
There will be $3.7 million worth of halves talent on the paddock on Sunday and it will go a long way to determing the winner. Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai have been the benchmark halves paring in the NRL for the last three seasons, while Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown are arguably third in 2022 behind Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes. Both halves parings are strikingly similar in that they complement each other perfectly. Cleary and Moses take on the bulk of the kicking and organising duties for their sides, while they are also excellent support players with the ability to take on the line. Luai and Brown also mirror each other with their strength being their running game and ability to test the defence, both on the edges and up the middle of the field from broken play. Cleary has the edge with the variety in his kicking game and his bombs will be a huge test for the Eels’ back three. Cleary and Luai also have the ability to put the ball on a dime with their short kicking game, so Gutherson will have to be on red alert at the back. Given the strength of Penrith’s defensive wall and Edwards’ work rate at the back, Moses will need to get creative to find some try-scoring opportunities with his kicking game, but look for Brown and Shaun Lane to pounce on some kicks form their halfback if he can get it right. The battle of the halves could depend on how well each sides’ defence pressures the playmakers with their kicking games, but on paper it is a very even contest. The game could come down to a moment of brilliance and all four halves are capable of producing one.
Verdict: Panthers.
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FORWARDS
Strap in because this will be brutal. James Fisher-Harris is arguably the best prop in the game and gets the Panthers’ sets off to a great start each time, while Moses Leota is in the best form of his career. Leota’s crunching tackle on Latrell Mitchell effectively took him out of the preliminary final and put the Eels on notice. The Eels build their power game on the twin towers of Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo up front and will be relying on them to get their side off to a flyer because chasing points against the Panthers is the hardest task in the NRL. Campbell-Gillard was exceptional in the preliminary final scoring two barge over tries, but the Panthers are unlikely giving away any cheap points through the middle. Campbell-Gillard will be motivated to get one over his old team, especially given the reported feud with his old teammates. Paulo is a real point of difference with his offloading game and he is capable of setting up or scoring tries with his unique skill-set. The battle of the hookers will be one of the keys to victory for both sides. Api Koroisau has been the form hooker all year and the masterstroke of playing him off the bench has given the Panthers real spark late in the first half at the back end of the season. It remains to be seen if Cleary will use the ploy again in the grand final, but whenever Koroisau comes on he will be hugely effective around the ruck for the Panthers and take the pressure off his halves. Reed Mahoney has been one of the Eels’ best all season and his kicking game takes some of the focus off Moses. He will be motivated to win a premiership before moving on to the Bulldogs next season. Viliame Kikau is not a noted metre eater, but his ability to provide brilliant moments on both sides of the ball can change the course of the grand final. Liam Martin can be exploited in terms of his defence, but he is a workhorse and pest that can get under the Eels’ skin. Isaiah Papali’i is the energiser bunny of the Eels’ pack and has the ability to break the grand final open with his running game, while his defence on the edge will be crucial. Shaun Lane was man-of-the-match in the preliminary final and his effort plays inspire his teammates to follow his lead, which will be crucial in the pressure-cooker of a decider. The tall back-rower attracted plenty of praise for his performance in the preliminary final against the Cowboys.
“And if you want to pick out who showed that way it was Shaun Lane. “His second half was the best 40 minutes of his career. It was so impactful,” Cooper Cronk said. “There was an intercept that got the Eels in a good position for RCG to score. He came up with a couple of offloads. One out the back to Brown and a try assist for Sivo.
“So he took it upon himself and the rest of the team followed.”
Isaah Yeo is the best lock in the game and takes so much pressure off his spine with his silky ball playing. However, his ability to tuck the ball under the arm and straighten the attack will be crucial, while he tackles anything that moves through the ruck. Ryan Matterson will likely be shifted to the bench to start the game, but can have a huge impact when he comes on, provided the Eels can get a good start to the game.
Verdict: Parramatta in a tight one
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BENCH
Mitch Kenny will likely start the game at dummhalf and while he doesn’t challenge the line as much as Koroisau his slick service will give good early ball to his halves. However, his lack of a running game gives the Eels an opportunity to exploit the Panthers around the ruck and put some pressure on early. Jakob Arthur will play limited minutes unless injuries strike, but has been picked to cover the spine and could give Mahoney a breather at dummyhalf. But carrying a player on the bench in what is shaping as a brutal forwards battle is a massive risk. Scott Sorensen is a workhorse off the bench and offers real spark and energy on both sides of the ball when he come son. Nathan Brown has been picked after 12 weeks out for a reason. Put simply to terrorise Nathan Clearry. “No doubt he is there to go after Nathan,” Matty Johns said this week on the Matty Johns Show.
Gorden Tallis agreed. “Kicking game, put him (Cleary) on the ground, Queensland did it in the State of Origin, and I know it is a different game, but I think he can do a job,” he said.
Spencer Leniu is a firebrand, whose job is to intimidate and give the Eels’ front-rowers a breather when he comes on. The Panthers hardly miss a beat when Leniu enters the fray and it is his job to maintain the rage when the starters get a spell. Oregon Kaufusi is a big body and will be crucial to give Campbell-Gillard and Paulo a break in each half. Like Arthur, Jaeman Salmon will play limited minutes unless injuries strike, but his versatility gives the Panthers options if there are any surprises. Marata Niukore is expected to start for Matterson and will be crucial to sure up the ruck defence and set the platform for when the Eels’ bench come onto the field. The Eels can’t afford to let the Panthers get off to a flyer because on the balance of their benches, they could be too hard to catch.
Verdict: Panthers
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COACH
Ivan Cleary has the experience of three grand finals as a head coach having lost to Manly while at the Warriors in 2011 and coached the Panthers to back-to-back grand finals in 2020 and 2021, winning the title last year. Cleary has kept the bulk of his 2021 Grand Final side together, with just four new faces on Sunday, so his team know what to expect in the decider. His ploy to play Koroisau off the bench has proved a masterstroke in recent weeks and with the Eels not having a back-up hooker it could have a huge impact on the 2022 title game. Whether it be suspensions to key players, send-offs or injuries, Cleary has found a way to keep his side motivated and winning on their way to the minor premiership and a third straight grand final. Now he is 80 minutes away from coaching just the second team to back-to-back titles in the NRL era after Trent Robinson’s Roosters in 2018 and 2019. Brad Arthur is coming into his first grand final in his ninth season at the club and like all of his team bar Matterson is experiencing grand final week for the first time. The Eels have lacked consistency this season, but that counts for little in a grand final where the best team on the day takes home the season’s ultimate prize. The Eels have proven giant killers in 2022 beating the Panthers and Storm twice each and that will give them plenty of confidence they can get the job done. Arthur has shown he can make a tough call, by bringing back Brown after 12 weeks out and he has stuck to his guns with his son on the bench. Arthur is backing his selections to get the job done as they have already twice this year. But a grand final against Cleary’s team, who have been the best side for the last three years will be a massive challenge. How each coach manages their bench, particularly if injuries strike could make or break their title chances.
Verdict: Panthers
