There are still six races to run in this Formula 1 season, but already Max Verstappen has his first match point.
The Dutchman’s hold over the campaign grew slowly and quietly such that it was hard to notice it at first, but his dominance is now so loud and suffocating that it’s impossible to ignore.
The permutations are as follows.
Verstappen leads Charles Leclerc by 116 points. He needs to extend that to 138 points at the end of this weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix to make his advantage unassailable.
Watch every practice, qualifying and race of the 2022 FIA Formula One World Championship™ live on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
It’s a long shot. Verstappen would have to win with Leclerc no higher than ninth to seal the deal. But if he doesn’t get it done this Sunday, he needs to only maintain a lead of at least 112 points to secure the silverware in Japan seven days later.
Sergio Perez is also still in mathematical contention, but a Verstappen victory with the Mexican fourth or lower will eliminate him.
If he gets it done this weekend with five rounds to go, he’ll be equal second with Nigel Mansell in the record books for number of races remaining when the title is won. Only Michael Schumacher has had a more dominant season, winning it with six to spare in 2002.
He’s also only two victories away from equalling the current record of 13 wins in a single season, held jointly by Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel, and four more consecutive wins would equal Vettel’s benchmark of nine on the trot.
You’d have got long odds on any one of these things happening this year when Verstappen ground to a miserable halt at the Australian Grand Prix all those months ago.
All of this is to say that Verstappen has had a very good season to date — and it’s all the more impressive having come off a monumental dogfight with Lewis Hamilton last season in which he could easily have walked away with nothing.
There are three key elements to his new-found dominance: confidence, car and opposition.
VERSTAPPEN IS DRIVING WITH A NEW LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
There were hints that Verstappen was preparing for a record-breaking season when this year’s cars built under the all-new technical regulations first hit the track.
Bigger, heavier and generating downforce in a different way, extracting the best from them has required a different driving approach.
It would’ve been tempting to believe this could have caught out Verstappen, whose driving style has often been thought to be a bit of a blunt instrument — busy, harrying, always on the edge. Drive fast, ask questions later.
But trackside observers at testing noted that even from the first days the Dutchman had completely revolutionised his driving style — smooth, early on the brakes and with a high minimum speed on the apex to try to keep the car in its happy place longer.
Such a change speaks not only to his superb driving instincts but also a mental change between seasons, having finally had the chance to depressurise from the brawl that was his 2021 title triumph.
“I think in many respects [winning the title] has released him,” Red Bull Racing boss Christian Horner told GPFans. “That expectation of needing to win your first world championship, he’s achieved that. He has that on his CV now. Anything that he adds to that is a bonus.
“He’s just become more rounded, more experienced and has handled the pressure incredibly well, which is remarkable for a 24-year-old. I think it’s just generally he’s continuing to evolve.”
You might be inclined to argue that some of that is coming from a lack of pressure given this season barely resembles the crucible of 2021, and there are some supporting examples for that.
He didn’t mince words about his reliability situation after retiring from the Australian Grand Prix, his second DNF in the first three rounds, and then there were his radio blow-ups during the Spanish Grand Prix when his DRS was malfunctioning — all heat-of-the-moment stuff but nonetheless revealing.
But it’s equally clear that his approach all season has been revised, particularly from those moments when he’s racing Leclerc, even at the start of the season when another tight title campaign was forecast.
Whether it’s a fundamental change to his temperament or that his pressure threshold has been raised by last season, it’s clear the Verstappen behind the wheel in 2022 is a more mature, more advanced version than the firebrand of seasons past.
RED BULL RACING IS WINNING THE DEVELOPMENT BATTLE
But you don’t win a championship without championship-contending machinery, and with Verstappen at the helm Red Bull Racing has pulled off an almighty development push in the last 12 months to find itself with the undisputedly fastest car on the grid at this crucial late stage of the season.
It wasn’t always like this of course. While the RB18 has been quick all year, for most of the season up until the break it was the Ferrari that had the upper hand.
The challenge was laid down, and Milton Keynes met and overcame it.
The car’s dominance has been underlined by some outstanding recovery drives from Verstappen, in particular from 10th, 14th and seventh on the grid in Hungary, Belgium and Italy, three of the last five races.
“We’ve honed this car,” Horner said. “I think we’ve managed to understand the car pretty well. The car’s very efficient in the high-speed but lower drag circuits.”
Efficiency — the development of the aerodynamic package to produce downforce without adding more drag — has obviously been key given Verstappen’s last five wins have come on a varied group of tracks.
But quieter gains have come from RBR’s push to cut weight.
The RB18 reportedly started well over the already high minimum weight of 798 kilograms. Every kilo saved is essentially free lap time, and as upgraded lighter parts have come on tap, the car has naturally sped up. There’s even a persistent rumour the team will bring a lightweight chassis to this weekend’s race, though it’s been keen to play down that suggestion.
The drop in weight is important not just for speed but for Verstappen’s driving style. The Dutchman prefers a lively car with good front-end feeling and a lighter rear end, which combined allows him to attack corners more aggressively. An oversteering car is also typically thought to have a higher performance ceiling.
The aerodynamics of these heavier cars are naturally predisposed to be more sluggish, particularly at slow speed, which translates to understeer.
However, by paring back the weight, the team has more easily accessed set-up options that make the car pointier again, which has allowed Verstappen to better express his abilities.
The tell here is how far Sergio Perez has fallen away from his teammate over the course of this season. Perez has always preferred a car that understeers, and early in the year, when the RB18 was biased in that direction, he was more often closer and occasionally beat Verstappen, who struggled to get the most from the car.
More recently, however, the car has naturally moved away from Perez as it’s got faster, so much so that the Mexican’s dark-horse title tilt is likely to end as quickly as Leclerc’s campaign.
THERE’S NO AGGRO
That covers the driver himself and the car. The only part missing in describing Verstappen’s potentially record-breaking season is the opponent — or the general lack of one.
That’s no slight against Leclerc, who has thrown everything at the Dutchman but finds himself fighting a losing battle in a Ferrari car that’s slipping further off the pace as the year progresses, not to mention the strategy blunders, unreliability and other mistakes that put him on the back foot early.
Instead it’s regard for the fact Verstappen and Leclerc occupy a similar space in Formula 1 at the moment reputationally. Though Verstappen started the season as the reigning champion, all year it’s felt as though they go into battle as equals with an equal amount to gain and lose.
The same can’t be said for his battle with Hamilton last season.
The dynamics of that fight were unique. Hamilton was the established seven-time champion heading towards his career twilight with a chance to set the all-time record for titles.
Verstappen was the heir apparent willing to do whatever it took to accelerate his rise by slaying the leader.
Their clash was spectacular, but you don’t endure a battle like that without taking on significant damage.
MORE MOTORSPORT
PIT TALK: Piastri cops extraordinary spray from jilted boss
DRIVER MARKET: Just three seats remain as Alfa Romeo locks in Zhou for 2023
PIASTRI ON RICCIARDO: Oscar reveals classy phone call as Aussie opens up on messy F1 switch
Verstappen and Hamilton were clearly inside each other’s heads, and there are still echoes of the psychological impact reverberating today.
When Hamilton was asked whether he was impressed by Verstappen’s performances this year, the Briton couldn’t bring himself to say the Dutchman’s name.
“It’s more that I’m impressed with [chief technical officer] Adrian Newey and his team,” he said, per ESPN. “They’ve done a fantastic job.”
Horner seized on it as another example of the unnecessary aggro between the rivals last season.
“There is perhaps a different respect with Charles,” he told the F1 Nation podcast. “They raced each other as kids and there is mutual respect.
“I have never once heard Lewis recognise Max’s ability so, of course there was just a little more needle to it. You could see that and sense that between those two drivers.”
It’s a little disingenuous considering Horner’s role in generating tension last year, and Verstappen played a major role in setting the tone by being more ready to more often drive at the very limit of the regulations and sometimes beyond, but the point stands.
Without a clash of last year’s titanic proportions, Verstappen has been able to more readily access the best of himself. Combined with a class-of-the-field car he’s helped finesse into its sweet spot and his own growing confidence, the Dutchman has entered a new phase of his Formula 1 career not only as a double champion in waiting but a new bar for the field to reach for.
It’s up to everyone else to figure out how to match that in time for next season.
