The final round of regular-season games is upon the National Women’s Soccer League, and there is almost nothing set about the playoff picture. Some of the most ridiculous potential scenarios that were at least mathematically possible a week ago (a six-way tie for first?) can no longer happen, but much still needs to be decided in the league’s most competitive season yet.
Unfortunately, it will not play out in six simultaneous matches on a “Decision Day” like in MLS and most leagues around the world. Instead, the four-team fight for the final two playoff spots will be a three-day chess match in which the first move affects everything that follows.
Meanwhile, three teams — the Portland Thorns, OL Reign and the Kansas City Current — are still in the hunt for the NWSL Shield, awarded to the team that finishes the regular season on top of that table. The Shield comes with a $10,000-per player bonus, which is significant for a league with a $35,000 minimum salary.
Six of 12 teams in the decade-old league make the playoffs, with the top two earning byes to the semifinals. Seed No. 3 will host No. 6 and No. 4 will host No. 5 in the first round, which takes place on Oct. 16 after an international break. The semifinals are the following weekend, followed by the NWSL Championship on Oct. 29 at Audi Field in Washington, D.C.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake this weekend, day by day, as well as outcome predictions from FiveThirtyEight simulations.
Friday, Sept. 30
North Carolina Courage at San Diego Wave
San Diego’s scenario:Already clinched playoff berth; playing for positioning
North Carolina’s scenario: Will clinch playoff berth with a win; with a draw or loss needs help with any other result
What’s old is new again: the North Carolina Courage will dictate how the entire weekend plays out.
It’s a win-and-in game for the Courage, who spent 12 straight weeks of the season in last place — a combination of poor results and scheduling problems that left them with several games in hand. Luckily for the Courage, those makeup games came right as they abandoned their yearslong commitment to the 4-2-2-2 box formation for a more stable 4-2-3-1.
They’ve climbed six spots in the table over the past five weeks and now control their own playoff fate. The highest they can finish is fifth, so they will be on the road in the first round if they make the postseason.
A draw in this game would eliminate Angel City FC from playoff contention by all logic, even if not mathematically. The Courage would be three points clear of Angel City in that scenario and they would maintain a plus-13 goal difference, the first tiebreaker. Angel City’s goal difference is minus-2. They would then be rooting for Angel City on Sunday, when the Los Angeles side visits Chicago. A Red Stars win would be enough, in that scenario, to eliminate North Carolina.
If the Courage lose in San Diego on Friday, their only path in is for Sunday’s Red Stars-Angel City FC game to end in a draw. Either of those teams would leapfrog North Carolina with a victory in that scenario.
The San Diego Wave, meanwhile, backed their way into the playoffs on Saturday with a 2-2 draw in Orlando, a gutsy two-goal comeback with Alex Morgan on the sidelines as a precaution (knee). Down 2-0 at halftime, the Wave were staring at the prospect of heading into Friday’s finale against the red-hot Courage knowing that a loss, combined with other results, could boot them from the playoffs altogether. Abby Dahlkemper left Saturday’s game early due to an injury that head coach Casey Stoney later said could be serious, and Taylor Kornieck rolled her ankle in the final minutes, after scoring the equalizer.
