West Coast isn’t the only club on trade watch ahead of the first round of the AFL draft, with Hawthorn, Melbourne and even North Melbourne continuing to explore moves inside the top 10.
The first round of this year’s national draft will take place at Marvel Stadium on Monday night, with as many as 29 selections – should there be seven bids – to take place.
And sources spoken to by foxfooty.com.au on Monday morning are expecting the draft order to change significantly throughout the night, not just because of academy and father-son bids, but also due to an array of potential trades.
Watch the 2023 AFL Draft from 7pm AEDT on Monday November 20 and Tuesday October 21, live and exclusive on Fox Footy and Kayo Sports. Join now and start streaming instantly >
West Coast seems destined to take Tongala and Bendigo Pioneers sensation Harley Reid with Pick 1, with recently-retired Eagles superstar Nic Naitanui tipped to present Reid with his Eagles jumper after jetting into Melbourne.
North Melbourne is expected to take Launceston midfielder Colby McKercher and Gippsland Power forward Zane Duursma – unless the Roos opt for key defender Daniel Curtin, who has North coach Alastair Clarkson in his fan club – with their two picks. Suns academy prospect Jed Walter is expected to receive a bid from the Kangaroos either before or after McKercher is taken.
If the Roos overlook Curtin, Hawthorn will then consider taking him or exciting Eastern Ranges small forward Nick Watson, who kicked a competition-high 14 goals for Vic Metro at this year’s national carnival.
Curtin, a 197cm prospect who won WA’s MVP award this year, was one of several prospects interviewed by the Hawks last week. But Watson has been heavily linked to Hawthorn’s selection for a while.
Melbourne, which holds Pick 6, also has a strong interest in Watson and even attempted to move up the draft order to get him, offering the Hawks Pick 6 and a future first-rounder in exchange for Pick 4. That offer is still on the table, but hasn’t persuaded the Hawks yet — which has rival clubs thinking the Hawks are more likely to pick Watson over Curtin because if they slid back to Pick 6, Curtin would highly likely still be on the board.
Should the Hawks select Watson, Curtin would then slide to the Demons’ selection, as the Western Bulldogs seem set on selecting Tasmanian ball magnet Ryley Sanders with their first pick – a selection the Dogs last month traded three first-rounders for in order to get up the draft order. Melbourne would then take Eastern Ranges winger Caleb Windsor, who the Dees have really warmed to in recent weeks.
Which leads us to Pick 7. It belongs to the GWS Giants and it looms as the most intriguing pick of the night, with an array of clubs set to throw offers at the clubs.
In an ideal world, the Giants would love it if Windsor slipped to their pick. And if he did, there’s little chance the Giants would entertain a trade. But the Demons seem set on Windsor with the preceding pick, granted the top of the draft order stays the same.
In that case, Sydney (Pick 12) and Essendon (Pick 9) have explored the possibility of moving up the order by offering their respective future first-round selections. But if the Giants are to trade down in this year’s draft, they’re more likely to deal with Adelaide, which is keen to turn Picks 10, 14 and 20 into two selections.
In one scenario, the Giants would send Picks 7 and 16 to the Crows, who would then trade Picks 10, 14 and a future second-rounder to the Giants, who are keen to have a strong 2024 draft hand. If Adelaide got its hands on Pick 7, it’d likely consider taking Curtin after doing late work on him.
But the Giants’ Pick 7 also has interest from West Coast, while sources wouldn’t be surprised if North Melbourne also made a play for the selection.
The Eagles’ future first-rounder is on the table in exchange for Pick 7, which is when the Eagles would pounce on Curtin – WA’s top draft prospect who’s been linked to West Coast all season. If they struck a deal with the Giants, it’d mean they’d select Reid and Curtin on the same night.
The Eagles are arguably the furthest AFL club away from the premiership window. And after claiming the wooden spoon in 2023, there’s a good chance their first 2024 selection ends up being at the very pointy end of the draft. That would surely appeal to the Giants, who were one point away from an AFL Grand Final this year and are unlikely to have a natural pick early in next year’s draft.
The top of the 2024 pool, too, is full of midfield stars. The Giants in future years will be looking for young gun midfielders, which for them are easier to pick up via the draft than the trade period.
The potential of turning the loss of Jacob Hopper to Richmond in 2022 into Pick 1 in the 2024 draft would be tantalising.
But could the Kangaroos also make a play for the Giants’ pick and Curtin?
Clarkson is a big Curtin fan, having kept in close contact with the West Australian since last month’s draft combine and even spending two-and-a-half hours at his house on the weekend while in Perth for a wedding. It’s ramped up speculation the Roos could take Curtin with Picks 2 or 3.
Roos list boss Brady Rawlings and recruiting manager Will Thursfield will make the final call, which most rival clubs believe will still be McKercher and Duursma. Yet they also wouldn’t be shocked if the Roos explored a way to get Curtin by acquiring a third top-10 pick.
In one scenario put to foxfooty.com.au, North Melbourne could send its future first-round pick, as well as a couple of their selections in the teens – the Roos currently hold Picks 15, 17 and 18 – to the Giants, which would see Pick 7/Curtin land at Arden St. North has already been linked to a play for the Swans’ Pick 12 using some of those teens selections, but adding in their future first in an attempt to score another top-10 pick would be on another level.
From a Giants perspective, the deal would still land them a potentially early 2024 draft selection, as well as more picks and greater flexibility in the teens considering they’re likely to use three picks at the draft.
The other Pick 7 trade watch surrounds Hawthorn, with sources of the opinion the Hawks are eyeing a way to get a second pick to select another player they like inside the top 10 after taking Watson.
As well as interviewing Curtin last week, the Hawks also caught up with Murray Bushrangers defender Connor O’Sullivan, as well as Dandenong Stringrays gun Harry DeMattia. Could the Hawks aim to trade back in and get Curtin or O’Sullivan at the Giants’ pick before matching a bid on Will McCabe later in the first round? Or could they even make a play for DeMattia later in the first round?
Those are the questions being asked by recruiters ahead of the draft.
Then there’s the prospect the Giants hold Pick 7 and take a player, which would likely be Tasmanian utility James Leake, with O’Sullivan to also be in the mix. Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney would then all consider O’Sullivan if he slipped past Pick 7, with Northern Knights forward Nate Caddy expected to land at one of Geelong or Essendon and Murray Bushrangers forward-midfielder Darcy Wilson in Adelaide’s mix.
Subiaco forward Koltyn Tholstrup is the hot tip to be taken by Melbourne at Pick 11. If he or O’Sullivan slip to Sydney’s Pick 12, the Swans would likely hold and take one of them. If not, the Swans could trade down with the Kangaroos or take Northern Knights ruck Will Green.
Rivals believe St Kilda is eyeing off outside run at Pick 13, with Wilson, DeMattia and Swan Districts’ Riley Hardeman likely to be in their mix.
Adelaide has been strongly linked to Sandringham Dragons bolter Charlie Edwards at its second pick, but could also pull the trigger early on local South Adelaide product Taylor Goad – an emerging 206cm ruck with a high ceiling – considering interest from Collingwood and, to a lesser extent, the Kangaroos with the selections before the Crows’ third pick.
Suns quartet hoping to say at Suns | 00:46
Should it hold its three teens selections, North Melbourne is targeting a couple of talls – a ruck and either a key forward or back – as well as some outside run. Hardeman and DeMattia continue to be linked to the Roos, while they’ll also weigh up Edwards if he’s still on the board. Gippsland Power’s Wil Dawson and Western Jets’ Logan Morris are among the talls linked to the Roos, while Green, Peel Thunder’s Mitch Edwards and Goad are the rucks understood to be chances.
What Collingwood does at Pick 19 will likely be dependent on who the Roos choose.
The Magpies could go tall at this selection, especially if one of Goad, Green or Mitch Edwards is still on the board, while Morris would be in the mix and 203cm forward-ruck Archer Reid could enter the draft mix for the first time. DeMattia, should he somehow slip that far, and Tassie defender Arie Schoenmaker have also been linked to Collingwood.
But rival recruiters believe the Pies have done a lot of late work on Lance Collard, who has other clubs like Fremantle and Richmond possibly prepared to trade up the order to get him. St Kilda also has some interest in Collard.
Expect a few trades at the start of the night, too, involving the Gold Coast Suns as they look to bank more points to match bids on their academy quartet.
When Walter receives a bid – now most likely from North at Pick 3 – the Suns are set to strike a trade with Brisbane for Pick 24, while the Saints could also help them out with a trade for Pick 27.
We’re on trade watch.
