The journey towards that one day in September can finally be plotted out; but some teams will have a harder road than others, thanks to the unbalanced 23-game fixture.
Last year Sydney, the Western Bulldogs and Geelong copped three of the hardest fixtures according to Foxfooty.com.au’s analysis – the latter two missed the finals, and the Swans would have if not for the goal review blunder against Adelaide.
At the other end of the spectrum Essendon, Adelaide and Carlton were tipped to have three of the easiest fixtures, and combined they won eight and a half more games in 2023 than they did in 2022.
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Scroll down to see your AFL club’s 2024 fixture plus full analysis of the pros, cons and a grade, with a higher grade meaning an easier draw.
HOW DO WE ANALYSE EVERY CLUB’S FIXTURE?
We don’t know exactly when every game will be played, but we do know who plays who, the rounds, and the teams everyone plays twice (their double-up opponents).
The best way to measure the quality of an opponent is their percentage, rather than their pure win-loss record, so we’ll be looking at how tough each side’s double-up opponents are below.
While this is not perfect, it works very well. Five of the seven hardest predicted fixtures last year ended up among the seven hardest; three of the four easiest predicted fixtures last year ended up among the four easiest.
HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE DOES A HARD FIXTURE MAKE?
As a rough estimate, the team with the easiest fixture is expected to win between 1 and 1.5 more games than the team with the hardest fixture.
That’s not saying the easiest fixture gives you an extra guaranteed win; it’s an accumulation of advantages.
It’s things like avoiding the toughest road trips, getting longer breaks than your next opponent, and being given easier double-up games. All of them add up and over the course of a season, the weight of probabilities suggest the team with the easy fixture will cash in at some point.
FULL FIXTURE: Round-by-round with every team, every time
WINNERS AND LOSERS: Who cashed in on weighted fixture as double-ups revealed
AFL 2024 CLUB-BY-CLUB FIXTURE ANALYSIS
ADELAIDE CROWS
Games played against…
Top eight: 11
Top four (after finals): 5
Bottom 10: 12
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 15
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 104.72% (sixth-hardest)
Analysis: Nothing can make up for the pain of missing the finals because of a goal review blunder, but the AFL has tried to soothe the Crows’ pain with cash – in the form of lucrative primetime fixtures. Adelaide should be an entertaining watch so we’re not complaining but it’s still wild to see a non-finalist from last season given six Thursday and Friday night games across the first 16 rounds, five at home, plus a big standalone Saturday night home clash against the Swans during the byes. In terms of difficulty, they’re smack-bang in the middle of a few teams, so don’t read too much into them having the sixth-hardest compared to say, Melbourne having the ninth-easiest (the teams are divided by one percentage point). If the Crows are finals-quality, they’ll get the chances to show it to the whole country, and everyone will be talking about them.
Grade: B+
BRISBANE LIONS
Games played against…
Top eight: 11
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 12
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda
Bye weeks: Round 2, Round 12
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 112.6% (hardest)
Analysis: On the plus side, the three other preliminary finalists all have to come and play at the Gabba next year. On the negative side, that’s because they play two of 2023’s preliminary finalists twice, plus two games against Melbourne, plus two against finalist St Kilda, plus two against near-finalist Adelaide… there’s no other way to put it, this is a brutal set of double-ups. Combine that with a bizarre mix of home and away trips, which will see the Lions fly to WA twice and SA three times across the course of the season, and this is a damn tricky draw. They’ve still got the best home ground advantage in the comp, and if they’re winning at least eight or nine games at the Gabba, that’s a huge headstart for making the top four again. But that’s going to happen every year no matter what – in terms of what the AFL actually controls, the Lions have copped the short straw. At the extremes a tough fixture can make a team lose one extra game (via an accumulation of disadvantages) and they may be that team.
Grade: D-
Lions punch ticket to AFLW Prelim | 01:58
CARLTON
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond
Bye weeks: Round 2, Round 14
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 104.08% (eighth-hardest)
Analysis: We’ve certainly seen harder draws for a preliminary finalist, so no real complaints in that department. The bigger story for the Blues is how they’ve become the AFL’s primetime darling, with a remarkable eight Thursday and Friday games across the first 16 rounds – plus the King’s Birthday Eve clash against Essendon which they’re trying to turn into a tradition. You certainly won’t see them exiled to the 1:10pm Sunday slot any time soon. And three of their opening four games are against members of last year’s bottom six, so they shouldn’t get off to a slow start like we saw in 2023. Six of their last seven games are in Melbourne, the only exception being what should be a simple trip to face West Coast, so they should finish well, too. Plenty to like.
Grade: B
COLLINGWOOD
Games played against…
Top eight: 11
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 12
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney Swans
Bye weeks: Round 5, Round 15
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 106.92% (fourth-hardest)
Analysis: Quite a tricky start to their premiership defence, with three interstate trips in the opening five rounds – what are they, a non-Victorian club?! – facing GWS, Brisbane and a Hawthorn side that upset them late last year. Unsurprisingly they land a heap of primetime fixtures (since that happens even when they don’t win the flag), including five Friday nights in the opening 16 rounds plus Easter Thursday, Anzac Day and King’s Birthday. Their double-ups are about as difficult as you’d expect for the premiers, but getting the Bombers and Hawks twice isn’t too scary.
Grade: C
‘Hilarious’ Cox hits back at May antics | 01:52
ESSENDON
Games played against…
Top eight: 11
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 12
Bottom four: 6
Who they play twice: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, St Kilda, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 14
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 101.05% (eighth-easiest)
Analysis: The Goldilocks porridge of draws – not too hot, not too cold, just right. They only cop one top-six team twice (Collingwood) in contrast to getting two bottom-four teams twice. Despite a disappointing end to the 2023 season they still enjoy plenty of primetime love with four Friday night games confirmed thus far, plus the King’s Birthday Eve clash with Carlton and of course Anzac Day. They travel every second week over the first couple of months which isn’t how Victorian teams are normally treated, but that balances out with a remarkable run that includes just one interstate trip between Rounds 9 and 23.
Grade: C
FREMANTLE
Games played against…
Top eight: 11
Top four: 4
Bottom 10: 12
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 13
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 100.53% (seventh-easiest)
Analysis: To be honest we expected their fixture to be a little easier after finishing just 14th, but perhaps the AFL believes the Dockers can bounce back, because they’ve still got a bit of primetime love. That includes Friday night home games against Adelaide (the second Good Friday game), Sydney and Collingwood, the latter being Lachie Schultz’ return to Optus Stadium. They also save a bit of travel by getting both Brisbane and Gold Coast to head west without a return trip, and they combine two Adelaide Oval visits across Rounds 4 and 5. But still, double-ups against the Demons and Power – who finished top four in the home and away season but aren’t counted as that because of their straight sets finals exits – plus Sydney and the Bulldogs won’t be easy.
Grade: C
Geelong & North keep season alive | 01:46
GEELONG
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 6
Who they play twice: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 14
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 99.72% (fifth-easiest)
Analysis: After years of tricky draws reflecting their ladder position, the Cats finally enjoy the ‘benefits’ of mediocrity, playing just two of last year’s finalists twice (neither who actually finished in the top four in the home and away season). They travel everywhere, including games in Hobart and Darwin, the latter their only Thursday night fixture to go with three Friday night match-ups. You have to be happy copping two of last year’s bottom three as two of your double-ups, too. Throw in the excitement of a finally-fully-built GMHBA Stadium and the Cats should be optimistic of a turnaround in 2024.
Grade: B
GOLD COAST SUNS
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 6
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast Eagles
Bye weeks: Round 3, Round 14
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 89.67% (easiest)
Analysis: Pretty much the only problem you could have with this draw is having to play a pair of top-four teams twice, but the Suns are always gonna get Brisbane twice, and it’s worth noting the Giants didn’t clinch a finals spot until the last game of the home and away season so they’re not a ‘true’ top four team. Otherwise it’s all set up for Damien Hardwick to lead a charge up the ladder in his first season at the helm, with just one true away game in the first six rounds to help ease his way into the new digs. Just the one primetime game, a Thursday night clash in the top end with Geelong, but they’ll get more in the back half of the season (when the floating fixture is confirmed) if they’re contending for the eight. Have to be very happy.
Grade: A
Suns would love to lock in Dusty | 02:06
GWS GIANTS
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 6
Who they play twice: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs
Bye weeks: Round 3, Round 12
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 104.5% (seventh-hardest)
Analysis: It’s a fixture that better reflects finishing seventh in the home and away season than going a point away from beating Collingwood in that prelim. They play two of last year’s bottom four twice, to go along with two of last year’s fellow preliminary finalists, plus rivals Sydney and the Bulldogs who they’re always competitive with. If they can knock off the premiers in Opening Round they should be 3-0, with the Kangaroos and Eagles to come after that. Is it strange they didn’t get more primetime love though given how they became everyone’s adopted side in the 2023 finals? The aforementioned Collingwood game plus their Anzac Night clash with Brisbane in the nation’s capital are the clear highlights.
Grade: C+
HAWTHORN
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 6
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 4
Who they play twice: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Richmond
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 15
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 104.77% (fifth-hardest)
Analysis: This is weird, right? The Hawks were undoubtedly impressive in the second half of last season but they still finished 16th, yet they cop two of last year’s preliminary finalists as double-up opponents, plus Adelaide and Geelong who were better than their ladder positions said in 2023. That means a rare trip to GMHBA Stadium, their first in front of fans since 2006. Weirdly they have to make three trips to Adelaide, and there’s absolutely no primetime love here as the AFL waits and sees what Sam Mitchell can squeeze out of this still-building group. This certainly could’ve been easier.
Grade: D+
MELBOURNE
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 6
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs
Bye weeks: Round 6, Round 14
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 103.53% (ninth-easiest)
Analysis: The Thursday night kings! The Demons will play a league-high four games on a Thursday night, as well as the Anzac Eve clash against Richmond on a Wednesday, across the first 15 rounds of the season. Intriguingly, though, they don’t feature on a Friday night. The Dees play 14 games at the MCG – of which 10 of them will be home matches – and only play at Marvel Stadium once: Against the Western Bulldogs in Round 21. A top-six finish in 2023 means they’ve got a tough double-up group that includes Brisbane, Collingwood and Port Adelaide – although they’ve drawn the Eagles twice. Of those top-six clubs, you could argue the Dees have the best run.
Grade: B
Thousands pay tribute to Ron Barassi | 03:06
NORTH MELBOURNE
Games played against…
Top eight: 9
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 14
Bottom four: 6
Who they play twice: Carlton, Geelong, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 12
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 93.25% (second-easiest)
Analysis: Ticks everywhere for the Roos. They face the three other 2023 bottom-four teams – Hawthorn, Gold Coast and West Coast – twice during the year. Also a good result to get consecutive Friday twilight games, hosting Carlton again on Good Friday before a Gather Round clash with Brisbane at Norwood Oval. As well as the Blues, Marvel Stadium home games against Collingwood and Richmond will also be good for the club’s piggybank. Outside of five trips to Tasmania – of which four will be home games – they only have five interstate trips for the season. Can’t realistically ask for a whole lot more than this as the Roos try and avoid a fifth consecutive bottom-two finish.
Grade: B+
PORT ADELAIDE
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 4
Who they play twice: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Fremantle, Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 13
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 108.9% (second-hardest)
Analysis: One of the toughest fixtures in terms of opponents, with two meetings against each of Adelaide, Melbourne and Carlton. The Power are also fixtured to play in every Australian state, while they have a four-game stretch against Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide near the end of the season. But they won’t have to travel too much early in the year, with six of their first eight games to be at Adelaide Oval thanks to Gather Round and a home Crows Showdown. They’ve also got five primetime matches across the first 15 rounds. A mixed bag but it’ll be harder to make the top four with this fixture than it was with last year’s, when they were coming off an 11th-place finish.
Grade: C-
RICHMOND
Games played against…
Top eight: 11
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 12
Bottom four: 6
Who they play twice: Carlton, Fremantle, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, St Kilda
Bye weeks: Round 6, Round 15
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 100.4% (sixth-easiest)
Analysis: Not as much primetime love for the Tigers to start the season. The only other primetime slot besides the traditional Round 1 Thursday clash against Carlton is a trip to Adelaide to face the Crows. However that doesn’t include the traditional Anzac Eve clash against Melbourne, which next year lands on a Wednesday night. The Tigers also have two five-day breaks early in the year: Between Opening Round and Round 1 then between Rounds 12 and 13. They’ll also host a match at Marvel Stadium – against Marvel Stadium tenants St Kilda – in Round 22, while they’ll travel to GMHBA Stadium to face Geelong for premiership points for the first time since 2017. Then there’s three trips to Adelaide (including Gather Round), two to Perth and two to Queensland. On the bright side, they have two hat-tricks of MCG clashes (Round 1-3 and 7-9) early in the year before five straight games in Melbourne to end the season – and three of those games are against bottom-four teams from 2023.
Grade: C-
Rance returns in leadership role | 01:52
ST KILDA
Games played against…
Top eight: 9
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 14
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast Eagles
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 15
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 97.45% (fourth-easiest)
Analysis: A good result for the Saints. They showed good promise in 2023 to finish sixth and make the finals, yet because they lost an elimination final weren’t grouped in the ‘top six’ bracket for the 2024 fixture. Two tricky games against the Lions are balanced out by getting to play lowly West Coast twice. They also have a Friday night blockbuster against Collingwood as one of four prime time matches before the bye, with a home game against the Western Bulldogs and interstate trips to face Port Adelaide and Brisbane. The Pies clash is just one of two games at the MCG for the season, but eight of their final nine home and away games will be at Marvel Stadium.
Grade: B+
Swans fly high over Suns in elimination | 02:40
SYDNEY SWANS
Games played against…
Top eight: 9
Top four: 6
Bottom 10: 14
Bottom four: 4
Who they play twice: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS Giants, Western Bulldogs
Bye weeks: Round 5, Round 12
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 107.67% (third-hardest)
Analysis: Despite starting the season on Opening Round and facing Collingwood on a Friday night in Round 1, a tough fixture for the Swans on a couple of fronts. They play the likes of Adelaide, Collingwood and the Giants twice, while they don’t have back-to-back home games at any point, whereas all other seven interstate teams have at least one back-to-back at home. The Demons and Pies will be tough opponents across the first two rounds, while a tricky run home looms with their final six games against Brisbane (Gabba), Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Collingwood, Essendon (Marvel Stadium) and Adelaide. Many believe the Swans will surge again in 2024 but they’ll have to do it despite this draw.
Grade: C-
WEST COAST EAGLES
Games played against…
Top eight: 10
Top four: 4
Bottom 10: 13
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Essendon, Fremantle, Gold Coast Suns, Melbourne, North Melbourne, St Kilda
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 14
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 97.1% (third-easiest)
Analysis: Naturally, after finishing 18th the year before, your next fixture will be a little easier. They have double-ups against Fremantle and North Melbourne – and overall five games against the three other bottom-four teams from last season – but have been dealt the Demons twice. The Eagles are one of just two teams without a primetime clash, but they have been slotted to play six of nine games in Perth between Rounds 5 and 13, while they won’t have to travel to New South Wales. They’ll also host Brisbane at Optus Stadium for the first time since the venue opened.
Grade: B-
Bontempelli backs Beveridge in review | 01:07
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Games played against…
Top eight: 11
Top four: 5
Bottom 10: 12
Bottom four: 5
Who they play twice: Fremantle, Geelong, GWS Giants, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Sydney Swans
Bye weeks: Opening Round, Round 15
Average percentage of double-up opponents: 103.85% (ninth-hardest)
Analysis: They get their fair share of primetime footy, with three Friday and two Thursday games scheduled across the first 15 rounds. Dogs fans, though, might be a little disappointed their first home game for the season is in Ballarat against the Suns in Round 2. Looks like it’s going to be a tough block in the middle of the season, with consecutive games against the Giants, Swans, Magpies and Lions between Rounds 10 and 13. It’s a block that could define their season. A tough run home with the Power, Blues, Cats, Swans, Demons and Crows between Rounds 17 and 22. But if they’re good enough to be a flag contender this year, they’ll be taking a few scalps.
Grade: C
