With 18 teams each playing 23 games in a 24-round season, all clubs are hit with ‘double-up’ match-ups, where certain sides play games against each other twice during the year.
The AFL uses a ‘weighted rule’ to determine who plays each other twice, breaking the 18 teams into three groups: the top six teams from the previous year’s ladder (based on finals results), the middle six and bottom six.
Teams then play teams that finished in their bracket on the ladder more often – though this rule is not as concrete as it was in the past.
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For example, preliminary finalists GWS and top-four finisher Port Adelaide both play a 2-2-2 split between the three brackets – as do Fremantle (14th last year) and Hawthorn (16th).
This year it’s a tale of two cities in one state, with Damien Hardwick’s Gold Coast handed the easiest draw in the AFL, but Chris Fagan’s Brisbane copping the hardest.
Scroll down to see Foxfooty.com.au’s winners and losers from the 2024 AFL fixture.
‘Hilarious’ Cox hits back at May antics | 01:52
2024 AFL FIXTURE BRACKETS (Based on 2023 ladder & finals)
Top six: Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, GWS Giants, Melbourne, Port Adelaide
Middle six: St Kilda, Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Crows, Essendon, Geelong
Bottom six: Richmond, Fremantle, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, West Coast Eagles
EVERY TEAM’S 2024 DOUBLE-UPS
Adelaide Crows: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans (2x top 6, 3x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)
Brisbane Lions: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda (3x top 6, 2x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)
Carlton: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond (3x top 6, 1x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Collingwood: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Sydney Swans (3x top 6, 2x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)
Essendon: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, St Kilda, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles (1x top 6, 3x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Fremantle: Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Geelong: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs (1x top 6, 3x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Gold Coast Suns: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast Eagles (2x top 6, 1x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)
GWS Giants: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Hawthorn: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Richmond (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Melbourne: Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs (3x top 6, 1x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
North Melbourne: Carlton, Geelong, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, West Coast Eagles, Western Bulldogs (1x top 6, 2x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)
Port Adelaide: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Fremantle, Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Richmond: Carlton, Fremantle, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, St Kilda (2x top 6, 1x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)
St Kilda: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast Eagles (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
Sydney Swans: Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS Giants, Western Bulldogs (2x top 6, 3x middle 6, 1x bottom 6)
West Coast Eagles: Essendon, Fremantle, Gold Coast Suns, Melbourne, North Melbourne, St Kilda (1x top 6, 2x middle 6, 3x bottom 6)
Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, GWS Giants, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Sydney Swans (2x top 6, 2x middle 6, 2x bottom 6)
AFL 2024 fixture difficulty (from easiest to hardest)
Based on the 2023 percentage of the teams they play twice in 2024
1. Gold Coast Suns
2. North Melbourne
3. West Coast Eagles
4. St Kilda
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
7. Fremantle
8. Essendon
9. Melbourne
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Carlton
12. GWS Giants
13. Adelaide Crows
14. Hawthorn
15. Collingwood
16. Sydney Swans
17. Port Adelaide
18. Brisbane Lions
WINNERS
Gold Coast Suns
The 2024 season is perfectly set up for Damien Hardwick to lead the Suns into their first finals series, with the easiest fixture in the AFL, by our metrics.
After sliding back into the bottom four last season, Gold Coast gets double-ups against three members of the bottom six bracket – a pair of meetings with Hardwick’s old side Richmond, who most expect to slide in 2024, plus the Suns are the only team to play both North Melbourne and West Coast twice.
While the Suns don’t earn a lot of primetime love, with just one Thursday night game against Geelong in Round 10, they ease into the year with just one true away game in the first six rounds (away to the Bulldogs in Round 2, plus Gather Round).
Many of their toughest games come after the byes, when they face all four members of last year’s top four. But they all have to come to Heritage Bank Stadium, where the Suns have become a tricky opponent, going 5-4 there last season, including wins over Brisbane and St Kilda.
Suns quartet hoping to say at Suns | 00:46
Geelong
The Cats are used to copping a brutal draw, because of their consistent top four finishes, but after sliding all the way down to 12th they’re poised to bounce back up.
Purely on the percentage of their opponents, the Cats have the fifth-easiest draw, but they play just one top-six team twice – Carlton, who they’ve beaten in 12 of their last 15 meetings.
At the other end of the spectrum the 2022 premiers get double-ups against North Melbourne and Hawthorn, who they beat by a combined 144 points in just two games last season.
Three games against middle six sides Adelaide, St Kilda and the Bulldogs won’t be easy, but those are teams the Cats are competing directly against to rise into the eight, so they were going to have to be better than them either way.
Their nine games at GMHBA Stadium mean visits from Adelaide, GWS, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, West Coast and the Bulldogs.
Also of note
The best draw of 2023’s finalists belongs to St Kilda, the fourth-easiest in terms of double-up opponent quality, though that’s impacted heavily by getting to play West Coast twice (with their awful percentage being an outlier).
With two games against Brisbane and Port Adelaide, and a difficult start to the season at the Cattery followed by an MCG blockbuster against Collingwood, there are reasons to be pleased here, but reasons to be concerned too.
Strangely Melbourne gets two games against wooden spooners West Coast while Carlton gets two cracks at the Kangaroos.
Geelong & North keep season alive | 01:46
LOSERS
Brisbane Lions
Did the AFL fixture department’s recording of the Grand Final cut out after the Charlie Cameron goal, making them think the Lions won the flag?
Chris Fagan’s side cops a brutal 2024 draw, the hardest in the AFL on our metrics, with double-ups against four finalists (Collingwood, GWS, Melbourne and St Kilda) plus one should’ve-been-a-finalist (Adelaide).
Their ‘easy’ double-up against Gold Coast may not be so easy with Damien Hardwick expected by most analysts to finally get the Suns going, and even under an interim coach back in Round 20 this past season, their in-state rivals managed to produce a boilover win.
But it’s not just the opponents – it’s the locations. Brisbane plays Fremantle, Port Adelaide and West Coast once; but all three of those games are away trips, meaning they’ll fly to WA twice and SA three times, once you include the return game with Adelaide and Gather Round.
Hawthorn
Despite finishing 16th last season, the Hawks cop the fifth-hardest draw on our numbers, including a more difficult set of double-up opponents than top-six sides GWS, Carlton or Melbourne received.
While Sam Mitchell’s men do get to face the Kangaroos and a likely-sliding Richmond twice, they also cop a pair of games against Collingwood and GWS, plus a likely-to-rise Adelaide and an always-dangerous Geelong (who thrashed them last year).
That double-up against the Cats, combined with both sides’ decline, means Hawthorn makes its first trip to GMHBA Stadium (with an actual crowd allowed to attend) since 2006.
Also of note
Joining Brisbane and Port Adelaide on the podium of toughest fixtures is Sydney, primarily because they don’t have a double-up against any of last year’s bottom four.
It’s also slightly strange to see bottom-six sides Fremantle and Richmond needing to play two top-six sides twice, as they fall victim to the AFL’s relaxation of the rules around how many members of each bracket each team plays. (When teams had five double-ups each, bottom six teams would play a maximum of one top six team, and vice versa.)
Swans fly high over Suns in elimination | 02:40
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2023?
This type of analysis will never be perfect – but for a second straight year, the AFL effectively got what it wanted, with better teams copping harder fixtures and vice versa.
Sydney, the Bulldogs, Collingwood, Geelong, Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Brisbane were supposed to have the hardest set of double-up games in 2023.
Five of those teams ended up copping one of the hardest fixtures, as intended; only Fremantle and the Bulldogs’ draws were easier than anticipated… and those teams slid backwards anyway.
The Swans, who had the hardest 2023 set of double-ups based on 2022’s numbers, ended up going 5-6 with a draw against the teams they played twice – showing the impact of a tricky fixture, as they went 7-4 against the other 11 teams.
At the other end of the spectrum, Essendon, North Melbourne and West Coast were supposed to face the three easiest fixtures, and in reality copped the fourth-easiest, easiest and third-easiest respectively. St Kilda surprisingly landed the second-easiest set of double-ups (and used that advantage to surprisingly play finals).
The point is – this data is useful. There are always changes from year to year, but for the most part, if the numbers say a team’s fixture will be easy or hard, that’ll happen in reality too.
