Australia has a brutal call to make ahead of their World Cup semi-final against South Africa on Thursday.
Australia has come into the final on a seven-match winning streak, despite dropping matches to India and South Africa in their opening two matches of the World Cup.
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But after romping into the semis where, weather permitting, Australia will face the Proteas, there’s a huge question to be answered, with Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Starc expected to come back into the side.
Starc will return in the place of Sean Abbott after being rested against Bangladesh, while Maxwell averages 79.4 for the tournament at a strike rate of 152.69, including the fastest World Cup hundred in history — off 40 balls against the Netherlands — as well as becoming the first Aussie man to hit a double hundred — 201 not out against Afghanistan.
The issue comes with who should be left out with Marnus Labuschagne and Marcus Stoinis in the crosshairs.
Labuschagne has played ever match of the tournament and has 286 runs at an average of 35.75, including two half-centuries, but a strike rate of 77.07, much lower than everyone else in the top order.
Stoinis has only scored 87 runs in five innings at 21.75 but has been batting late in the innings.
And while he only has four wickets at 35.75 and an economy rate of 7.52 runs per over, the Eden Gardens pitch has proven to be difficult to bat on, particularly second during the World Cup.
The team batting first has won three of the four games during the current World Cup, while the team batting first averages 274 runs, compared to the team batting second, who have averaged 167.
One of those results include South Africa’s biggest loss of the tournament, where India defeated the Proteas by 243 runs.
So the question is, who should be left out?
Former Aussie captains Tim Paine and Shane Watson have echoed the comments of Ricky Ponting saying it should be Stoinis who’s the unlucky player to miss out.
“I wouldn’t definitely play Stonis,” Paine said on SEN’s Whateley on Monday. “Without seeing the wicket, I find it really hard to make a call.
“But the only way I’m playing Marcus Stoinis ahead of Marnus is if we use him in a new ball role. If we don’t, I’m taking the batting every day of the week.
“If we lose the toss at Eden Gardens, it looks like that wicket has worn and it has been difficult to bat on.
“The reason I would have had Marnus Labuschagne in our World Cup squad is because of this moment. If it spins, you need skill. If we’re chasing in the second innings and they’ve got three spinners, we need a guy who averages 60 in Test cricket.
“He’s got the ability to handle that type of bowling and that type of pressure.
“If Stoinis isn’t going to use the new ball for a couple of overs and he’s only bowled something like 19 overs for the World Cup, then I’m going to go with Marnus ahead of him and bring Maxwell in.”
Shane Watson, who captained Australia in a single Test in 2013, as well as nine ODIs and a T20I, said that Stoinis hadn’t showed enough to retain his place.
“ (Labuschagne) is someone who has done a very good job for Australia throughout this World Cup, and as well Marcus Stoinis hasn’t set this World Cup alight yet,” Watson said.
“What we’ve seen in this World Cup, is if Australia end up batting second in a semi-final, that period with those two new balls swinging around, you do need your best technically equipped batters who can handle that moving ball.
“Marnus Labuschagne, with the Test skills, he’s got the ability to be able to handle a moving ball. There is a chance that Australia will have to bat second under lights, and he’s done a very good job of that throughout this tournament.”
It comes after Ponting said although Australia would have dropped Labuschagne before Steve Smith’s bout of vertigo, he’d proven his worth to the side.
“If you actually look at the numbers through this series, he hasn’t done a bad job, second leading run scorer (fourth after the group stages) … and I know the most important phase for Australia through this tournament they haven’t got right yet is their middle order batting,” Ponting said on Fox Cricket.
“They haven’t got that right and they need to fix that quickly.
“If you’re going to win the World Cup, you’re going to have to fix those overs 11 to 40, because so far in the tournament they’ve lost 12 more wickets in that period of time in the tournament than what India have through the whole tournament — India have only lost 20 wickets through that phase.
“I probably would (retain Labuschagne). I mean even today we’ve seen Australia have gone to Mitchell Marsh’s bowling before they used Stoinis.”
It seems pretty clear to the former skippers.
But coach Andrew McDonald said the decision would be made on the day.
“We’ve seen what Stoin’s been able to do with four players out after the first 10 (overs),” McDonald said.
“His ability to bowl a heavy ball, bring energy to the crease, and he’s got some different defensive skills as well. We feel as though he can complement at certain stages the frontline bowling.”
Ultimately the call could be taken out of Australia’s hands as the weather could intervene.
The India Meteorological Department issued a warning on Monday that a “cyclonic circulation” had entered the south Andaman Sea from the Gulf of Thailand.
The current forecast suggests a 60 per cent chance of rain on Thursday with that figure increasing to 90 per cent on Friday — which is the reserve day for the semi-final.
If the match is washed out, South Africa will move into the final after finishing second on the ladder, thanks to a superior run-rate.
