There are reasons in the form of Ellsberg that make him arguably the best value favourite of the day in the Shannon Stakes at Rosehill.
The Spill The Beans five-year-old is consistent and honest, and should go through the million-dollar earnings barrier on Saturday. But his form is littered with near misses that could have taken him to another level.
Free-rolling Ellsberg will be out to dominate the Shannon Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. Credit:Getty
“He is one of those horses that might be just under the top level, and when you look at his form he could have won a couple more races,” co-trainer Sterling Alexiou said.
“If you look at his run in the Theo Marks, he just got in behind horses and had no luck. It was the first time he hadn’t won first-up, but it was more like a barrier trial because he got held up behind them and never got his chance.”
The free-rolling Ellsberg has won six times in 20 starts and there are another couple where he could be considered an unlucky runner-up.
He races best when he gets the lead and takes horses out of their comfort zones, which makes barrier one a bit of concern in the Shannon. However, he still looks the leader and, jockey Tim Clark will no doubt push forward.
He is the $3.30 top pick in Shannon betting but, if he finds the front and gets control, those odds would shorten dramatically.
“He is going to have to kick up to hold the front, but if he does, I think he goes well enough that they will find him hard to beat,” Alexiou said. “His work the other morning was as good as he goes.
“I know his form says he hasn’t won second-up, but he probably should have won a Silver Eagle, when he was nailed late, and last time in he just ran into a superior wet-tracker on a very heavy track.
“We know what we are going to get from him because he doesn’t really run a bad one, and if he gets into his rhythm he will run the 1500m right out.”
It took Just Folk to beat him in a photo finish second-up in the Ajax Stakes on a heavy track in the autumn, and another near miss was in the Villiers Stakes last year when Brutality got him late on a soft track.
“He will like the conditions on Saturday and, when you look at it, his record could be a lot better,” Alexiou said. “He is a horse you can always feel a bit confident with.
“If he gets some luck go his way, I think this is an ideal race for him.”
Alexiou and training partner Gerald Ryan will saddle Brosnan, which was third in the group 1 JJ Atkins Stakes, in the Golden Rose, where he is an $81 outsider from a wide draw. He is looking to get out further in trip, but a hard 1400m under testing conditions could bring him into the race.
“He is probably the right price considering he has 17,” Alexiou said. “We are just going have to let him fold into the field and find the line late.
“His best chance probably is if they go very hard, because I think he is a very good miler.”
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