The AFL season is over for 10 of the 18 clubs.
Some teams ended the year on a high, while there are big concerns over others ahead of a 2024 campaign.
Fox Footy experts David King and Leigh Montagna on Sunday night assessed all 10 eliminated teams on First Crack, while also revealing where the clubs sat in the ‘core four’ stats at season’s end.
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Walker kicks NINE in Crows big win | 01:20
ADELAIDE CROWS
Ball movement: 3rd
Defending ball movement: 6th
Clearance differential: 7th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 5th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 4th
Leigh Montagna says: “I think they’re obviously the hard luck story of the year with the inaccuracies, close losses and bad luck … and the (missed goal) review. I see them like the Carlton of this year, they can use the bad luck, near misses and adversity they went through to build some resilience and take a big leap next year. They’re not lacking for much, I think they’re the big spiker next year.”
David King says: “They’ve been inconsistent in game. (But) the more football I see (Josh) Rachele) and (Izak) Rankine play together … they’re so exciting, they’re going to take that town by storm. They’re one team I can see spiking onto the four. Not just limping into the eight and being an also ran first week, I think they’ve got higher aspirations than that, they’re a destination club now. It’s about now your off-field departments taking over and getting some talent and stacking some talent. If they can, you can (by their profile), (Matthew Nicks) can clearly coach with what he’s got at the moment. It’s amazing that they’re not in the finals given their profile.”
Geelong Cats Press Conference | 02:31
GEELONG CATS
Ball movement: 7th
Defending ball movement: 8th
Clearance differential: 8th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 4th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 6th
David King says: “I’m confused by Brandan Parfitt, why does he ever leave this team? A bit like Adam Treloar, (the Cats should) throw their arm around him, tell him they love him, bring him in … I think they’ve got some real concerns, but they’ve come off a premiership, so of course you’re going to have problems. You can’t keep maxing out every year. The responsibility shifts now from Dangerfield to the next level of midfielder, whether that’s Atkins or Guthrie coming back – what’s underneath that? Is Holmes a top-liner?”
Dogs great still unconvinced | 01:04
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Ball movement: 13th
Defending ball movement: 7th
Clearance differential: 9th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 8th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 10th
Leigh Montagna says: “I don’t know where it leaves them. They’ve got a lot of questions internally to ask themselves about their personnel, their system, how to get the best out of the group … I think they over where they hover – that’s been their lot for the last four or five years now. We know about their core six, but they’ve got a middle tier that I think are inconsistent with their effort. Some weeks they produce and some weeks they don’t. And I think they’ve got a really poor bottom six that just aren’t sometimes up to AFL standard. I know we talk about their top-end talent, but they’ve got gaps in their list that needs addressing.
David King says: “I think it would’ve been a false read if they’d made the finals this year. They haven’t been good enough, both on or off the field – and that’s the honest truth. I think they’ve got to throw their arms around Adam Treloar. He’s a really important player for them – only Bont has more score involvements at the Dogs than him, only Bont and Libba win more clearances and contested possessions – he was brilliant again on the weekend … He’s the sort of player they can’t lose. The more you look at this list and they’ve got the big four out of contract next year, they’ve got to sell a reason for those guys to stay that’s not financial, because the money would be better elsewhere. Will Naughton definitely stay? Will Jamarra stay? Bailey Smith, is he already gone or is he staying – what’s happening there? That’s been weird for quite some time. And then Tim English is the same discussion. They’re going to get significant offers elsewhere, but if they want to have success do they stay or do they leave? Are they heading towards success again with Luke Beveridge or aren’t they?”
Richmond Press Conference | 05:54
RICHMOND
Ball movement: 11th
Defending ball movement: 11th
Clearance differential: 12th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 12th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 12th
Leigh Montagna says: “I’m still bullish on them, I think they can spike next year and absolutely play finals. I still look at their list, they’ve got stacks of talent, and just a new coach and a new voice, whoever that is, tinker with their game plan a little bit. I think they can finish top six.”
David King says: “I think (Andrew) McQualter had to win (against Port) to be a viable option. I just don’t know if he’s done enough over the last four weeks to stamp himself as a senior coach at Richmond.”
Dockers end disappointing season on high | 00:57
FREMANTLE
Ball movement: 13th
Defending ball movement: 13th
Clearance differential: 6th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 14th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 13th
Leigh Montagna says: “What might surprise a few, Fremantle were actually slightly younger (than Hawthorn). They’re on similar paths, I think we saw from that game Fremantle is well ahead of where Hawthorn is at … they’ve progressed a bit further, the games they’ve got into (Josh) Tracy and (Joe) Amiss in the forward line I think is going to be a huge key for them going forward … the year before their identity was their defence and contest. They just lost that elite edge defensively, so that’s probably something they’re going to have to try and find back with their DNA. No doubt they’ve got to get a bit quicker with their ball off turnover and being able to punish teams when they win the footy back.”
Mitchell endorses Newman for Tigers job | 01:19
HAWTHORN
Ball movement: 10th
Defending ball movement: 16th
Clearance differential: 15th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 10th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 14th
Leigh Montagna says: “I think they need to start building their defensive profile. It’s four years in a row now they’re bottom four for defence. It’s almost a bit of, if (James) Sicily’s not there, what does their defensive system look like. (They need) another key defender, and as much as it’s personnel, they’ve got to start to build that brand. Everyone has loved their offence and their flair … and they’ve challenged the best teams, but to be consistently good, that without the footy profile has got to improve next year.”
David King says: “(Their defence) did (improve) from Round 17 or Round 18 onwards, the last six or seven weeks of the season. If you break the season in half, I think there’s massive gains for what Sam Mitchell has been able to do. He’s got those three or four midfielders coming through that are going to drive them for a decade, what an asset that is.”
‘A double 50?!’: Rowell sparks spotfires | 00:44
GOLD COAST SUNS
Ball movement: 13th
Defending ball movement: 14th
Clearance differential: 11th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 13th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 15th
David King says: “Couldn’t be more excited about this group, I’m in love with the list, I think we all are. When you have a deep look at what’s coming in the next 12 months or so, it’s hard not to think Damien Hardwick will have this group, in a new plan, matching what the list possesses – significant and elite talent. (Noah Anderson) in my opinion under Hardwick will win a Brownlow, simple as that. He’s playing unbelievable football, his vision is ridiculous, I don’t know he sees these targets, let alone hits them … he averages close to 30 (disposals), a great mix of inside and out. And then he has the ability to do a bit of dancing in tight and put his teammates in a great space. He’s already an elite performer, I just think he’ll break into the top five or six in the competition next year with a rigid plan and some role players covering for him on occasion. Dustin Martin had the game set up for him by ‘Dimma’, this will be the same. The absolute weapons get a great run with Damien, this guy will play more attacking footy than defensive footy in the next 12 months, look out.”
‘Footy’s gotten too hard for Essendon’ | 01:43
ESSENDON
Ball movement: 5th
Defending ball movement: 15th
Clearance differential: 16th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 16th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 16th
Leigh Montagna says: “It was sort of building, they’re last six to eight weeks were pretty poor, particularly defensively. It just leaves me thinking their profile looks exactly the same as the past four or five years. Their offence is fine, they can move the ball from their back half, they’re one of the better kicking teams in the comp. But they just can’t defend. I’m concerned with even with Brad Scott having a full pre-season, nothing has changed yet.
David King says: “I’m concerned about the system. There’s too many seagulls – too many want the easy chip … It’s a massive problem. Without the footy they’re 15th again. This is strategy. I won’t hear the wash and the spin that others want to go with, because it was the same when they were sitting fifth on the table: Really good with the ball, but ordinary without it. You can’t be ordinary without it and expect to be a finals team and pushing up the ladder. If that stays the same next year, it’ll be another wasted 12 months like this was.”
North upset Suns as Larkey boots nine! | 01:55
NORTH MELBOURNE
Ball movement: 17th
Defending ball movement: 17th
Clearance differential: 17th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 17th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 17th
Leigh Montagna says: “They get the pep in the step (after the Round 24 win over Gold Coast) and can look forward to next pre-season and make some strides. I think they’ve got a heap of work to do with, not their personnel, but their system. If they can do that and Clarko can start to build that, they can get the wheels rolling.”
David King says: “It’s amazing what Nick Larkey has done do this football club, we’ve always said he’s the most important magnet for the rebuild. I thought we’d have a look at the percentage goals for his team – it’s almost 30 per cent – the highest in the league. I know the All-Australian discussion is a different one and it’s skewed by how you personally see these guys and their impact on games of football … but that’s extraordinary what he’s doing, it really is extraordinary, in a team that’s underperforming, he’s fighting 2 v 1 and 3 v 1 on occasion. He’s not getting quality coming in, he’s had coach after coach after coach. And to perform like that this year when the club needed him most, he has to be in the All-Australian team, he had to be recognised and rewarded … he’s had a better year in my opinion than Tex (Walker).”
West Coast bid farewell to club legends | 02:56
WEST COAST EAGLES
Ball movement: 18th
Defending ball movement: 18th
Clearance differential: 18th
Post-clearance contested possession differential: 18th
Overall ‘core four’ ranking: 18th
Leigh Montagna says: “You take a look at the last six weeks of the season and the West Coast Eagles won more quarters than Richmond, Essendon, the Gold Coast Suns and Geelong … so they made some progress. It helps when they had some senior players that were fit and available out there. I’ve got no doubt they’ll be much more competitive next year.”
David King says: “The assessments on West Coast with Jeremy McGovern versus without are poles apart. I don’t know whether they continue with Adam Simpson or not and I don’t know whether they’ll make a public announcement on that decision for a little while – maybe let the dust settle – but I don’t think it matters either way. You’re going to get a similar result out of this squad next year, regardless of who’s coaching in my opinion, so why not stick with the guy that you’re financially committed to anyway? I don’t see the value in it (changing coaches), unless you feel the message is tired – and you only know that if you’re in-house and hear it directly from the players’ mouths. There’s got to be some honesty had internally over there and I’m sure they’re seeking that in the next couple of days.”
