Hidden loser in finals-altering AFL blunder; boilover may gift North top TWO picks: Talking Pts

The staggering blunder in Adelaide on Saturday night ruined the Crows’ season – but potentially others’, too.

Plus how West Coast’s stunning upset could hand their rivals the top two picks, the “utter crap” surrounding Adam Simpson and the Pies’ very real problems.

The big issues from Round 23 of the 2023 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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HIDDEN LOSER IN FINALS-ALTERING AFL BLUNDER

So let’s get one thing straight: Adelaide could’ve still won on Saturday night.

Yes, they wasted some chances. Yes, there are always umpiring decisions which are questionable, and they go both ways.

But to suggest the Crows weren’t robbed, after a goal umpiring decision that was unfortunately wrong on two fronts – whether it touched the post, and whether it needed to be checked – is absurd.

While they weren’t guaranteed to win while leading by a kick with a minute left and a centre bounce to come, they certainly would’ve been favoured, after a pretty dominant quarter with an enormous crowd behind them.

And, more to the point, it was something completely out of their control that was very clearly mishandled, in a very rare way. So the Crows were robbed; by a human error, and errors can happen. But an error nonetheless, and a robbery nonetheless.

(Perhaps it wouldn’t have gotten to a human error if the system was set up properly, meaning all scores had to be reviewed – even if it meant bringing the play back – but that’s a matter for another time.)

This wasn’t just some rinky-dink midseason game between two nonentities. This was a virtual elimination final, for the Crows at least, and its impacts are quite staggering.

The combination of results on Saturday night eliminated both Adelaide and Geelong from the finals race – and they didn’t have to. Especially when the Bulldogs shockingly lost to West Coast the next day.

It’s as simple as this: there are nine teams realistically still in the finals race. If Adelaide had won, there would be 12 teams alive – adding the Crows, Cats and Essendon (who would go from mathematical hopes to a kinda realistic one).

AFL ladder after Round 23 with an Adelaide win

1st to 6th as is

7. GWS (48 pts) [Actually 8th]

8. Sydney (46) [Actually 7th]

9. Adelaide (44) [Actually 13th]

10. Bulldogs (44) [Actually 9th]

11. Essendon (44) [Actually 10th]

12. Geelong (42) [Actually 11th]

13. Richmond (42) [Actually 12th]

14th-18th as is

We would be heading into an enormous Round 24. Sydney would need to beat a top-four bound Melbourne to hold its spot – otherwise Adelaide (by beating West Coast), Essendon (by beating Collingwood) or the Bulldogs vs Geelong winner could’ve knocked them out.

Yes, Geelong – despite being 12th on the ladder in this alternate reality – could’ve made it. They might’ve needed West Coast to beat Adelaide, but their season would have been alive when the ball was bounced to begin their clash with the Dogs.

GWS would kinda be safer, yet would still be at risk from the three teams below them – the Crows or Bulldogs still having a hope of reaching as high as seventh.

And, perhaps most importantly, in this reality the Swans would not be locked into September. In our reality, they are.

If Sydney loses to Melbourne next week, there is a very, very real possibility they will be taking a spot in the finals they should not have. Whichever team it is that misses out is losing money (for making it this year, and for the extra future members they might gather from a finals appearance) and a shot at a premiership.

And while it’s the Crows who are the biggest losers out of all this – if they end up in a position where one more win would’ve gotten them into September – it’ll feel painful for whoever finishes ninth, potentially the Bulldogs or GWS, since they’ll be looking up at the Swans going ‘that should be us’.

Something simply must change so this error cannot happen again.

Of course, it’s unlikely we’ll get this specific scenario again – and the future won’t change the past either way.

NORTH NOW ‘SMOKING THE PIPE’ AS PATH TO MIND-BLOWING DRAFT HAND EMERGES

Maybe we should’ve taken more notice of Eagles list boss Rohan O’Brien earlier this month, when he suggested: “We may not even end up with it (Pick 1).”

A series of dramatic Round 23 results blew up an already nuts finals race – in particular West Coast’s shock defeat of the Western Bulldogs, which secured September berths for both St Kilda and Sydney.

But just as intriguing on Sunday was the fact the Eagles – who’d occupied 18th spot for 13 consecutive rounds – leapfrogged fellow cellar dwellers North Melbourne on the AFL ladder.

Subsequently – or consequently, depending on your viewpoint – the Kangaroos now hold Pick 1 with one home and away round left.

“Put tanking to bed forever,” Melbourne legend Garry Lyon told Fox Footy. “The No.1 pick has just wandered off from the West Coast Eagles right now and it’s in North Melbourne’s hands.

“Well done to the West Coast Eagles. You wonder where it’s been.

“Now the Kangaroos are sitting back smoking the pipe.”

The ladder flip is a dramatic late twist ahead of one of the more intriguing first rounds of a draft in many years.

As West Coast sat on the bottom of the ladder for months, the footy industry was bubbling with speculation around how willing star Bendigo Pioneers prospect Harley Reid – rated by most AFL recruiters as this year’s No. 1 draft prospect – would be to start his career in an Eagles jumper. And, subsequently, how willing West Coast would be to trade its first pick, with rival clubs suggesting the Eagles might be prepared to slide down the order but only if they could ‘guarantee’ top WA prospect Daniel Curtin would still be available at their new pick.

The sense among scouts spoken to by foxfooty.com.au has always that been Reid will be taken with Pick 1. Which club holds the pick come draft night, though, has remained less certain.

Now North Melbourne holds the first pick in the draft, as well as Port Adelaide’s first-rounder as a result of last year’s mega deal involving Jason Horne-Francis.

There are several layers to this significant development.

Firstly, it mightn’t be the only top-10 pick North will hold come late November. In fact there’s a scenario in which the club could have the first two picks in the draft.

It’s widely expected the Roos will lose key defender Ben McKay via free agency and, subsequently, be handed a compensation selection. Where that selection lands, though, would depend on the rival club offer McKay would sign.

If it was worthy of ‘Band 1’ compensation, the compo pick would be after North’s natural first-rounder. So, after the Round 23 results, that would be Pick 2.

Bonkers.

But complicating the AFL’s compensation call – and its secret herbs and spices free agency formula – is that North Melbourne is in the process of applying for a priority draft assistance this year, given it’s won just 11 of its past 81 games.

The Roos last year received one future second and one future third-round pick – which they had to trade – as part of an assistance package. But the more likely outcome, according to draft sources spoken to by foxfooty.com.au, is the AFL will allow North to pre-list star Tasmanian midfield prospect Ryley Sanders, who the Kangaroos are hoping will be added to their Next Generation Academy after he recently his certificate of Aboriginality this year. Sanders, who kicked one goal from 35 disposals for Sandringham in the Coates Talent League on Saturday, is widely considered a prospect worthy of a top-10 selection.

So with North now holding Pick 1 instead of Pick 2 – plus the prospect of pre-listing a top-10 talent like Sanders – the McKay compensation pick could be an end-of-first-round or early second-round selection. After all, handing North Pick 2 instead of Pick 3 for losing McKay would be a far harder sell for the AFL.

But if the Kangaroos do ultimately get their hands on the first two picks of the draft, could they spoil West Coast’s plans and pinch Curtin from the WA-based club?

North Melbourne last month indicated it was keen to draft a key defender this year, with list boss Brady Rawlings telling members he was “aware we haven’t picked very tall over recent seasons”. And rival clubs, prior to this weekend, said they could see the Kangaroos taking Curtin with a top pick.

So could the Roos take Reid with Pick 1 and Curtin with Pick 2 – or Pick 3, if they put in a bid for star Suns academy prospect Jed Walter – and make West Coast ‘pay’ for its Round 23 win?

The AFL, last year, confirmed North Melbourne’s assistance package in mid-September. According to Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph, the league in the past has made decisions on priority picks deep in the finals series.

There’s still a long way to go.

But as it stands, there’s a way the Roos end up with Picks 1 and 2 and Sanders – and Reid would almost certainly remain in Victoria.

‘UTTER CRAP’: AFL LEGEND LIVID AMID EAGLES’ REPORTED TREATMENT OF COACH

Amid ample speculation about his coaching future, Adam Simpson’s immediate reaction to West Coast’s shock upset win over the Western Bulldogs was perfect.“We tried to tank that in the last three minutes – it didn’t work,” he joked to Fox Footy’s Ben Dixon. “I kept on saying kick it the other way and play an equalised game!”

Simpson travelled to Melbourne besieged and under the most pressure of any AFL coach. But against all the odds and circumstances, he produced one of his finest performances – in possibly his penultimate game in charge.

Simpson led his side from the bench for the entire contest, spending the game mostly on his feet or crouching beside his players as he conversed with everyone who came from the ground and gave orders from as close to the boundary line as he could get.

At the full-time siren, he was the happiest and most relieved man in footy.

“To respond they way they did … it’s been a heavy couple of weeks. Really proud of the players,” Simpson said.

“There’s pride in their club – you accept the criticism and the only way you can respond is on the field.”

There’s a chance Sunday’s seven-point win over the Bulldogs could’ve been his second-last – or last – game in charge of West Coast following growing speculation the Eagles’ board is contemplating sacking the 2018 premiership coach.

The question is whether the post-season meeting to decide his future will be brought forward to this week to give Simpson a farewell game against Crows, or be held post-season.It’s a significant shift, considering the plan seemed to be for Simpson to be the designated survivor among the Eagles rebuild.

SEN’s Sam Edmund reported when some assistant coaches and other football department staff were informed their contracts wouldn’t be renewed, Simpson was told he didn’t have any authority to help proceed with finding replacements.

The report left Hawthorn legend Luke Hodge stunned, considering the Eagles were very poor from Rounds 3 to 15. Hodge said the Eagles have “ buckled to the pressure of the media or they’ve dragged ‘Simmo’ along”.

“(Since Round 15), they’ve won a game, they’ve lost by a point to Essendon, they’ve lost by eight points to St Kilda – that seems like there’s been an improvement from the first half of the year,” Hodge told SEN’s Crunch Time.

“Is it the media hype that’s getting to them? Or what is it? Because you can’t change your mind after having such a dismal first half of the year – and we’ve all heard the injuries and excuses and we all understand that – but how can they change and now go (to Simpson) ‘you can’t pick your assistant coaches’ … how can they have such a big change of heart?”

“He’s said from the start: ‘I want to coach this team, I’ve got two years and I’m committing to this time. They’re saying ‘we’ve backed you, we’ve backed you’. They’ve either lied the whole way or the media has got to them and they’ve buckled.

“If they’re going to sack him either this week or next week and it hasn’t come from him saying to them ‘I’ve had enough’, that is utter crap from them.

“Clubs tell players to be respectful, to treat the club with respect. Why aren’t clubs doing that to coaches? Over the last little bit, we’ve had that many coaches be disrespected by clubs … Respect the coach the way that you want the coaches and the players to respect your club and your sponsors and your members. Show the coach a little bit of respect the other way.”

‘DREAMING!’: DEBATE ERUPTS OVER DUSTY TRADE WORTH AS LEGEND FACES BIG CALL

The Gold Coast Suns this week will unveil one of their most significant signings in club history.

And, naturally, speculation about whether Damien Hardwick will be joined at the Suns by Dustin Martin will only intensify.

But for several pundits, a Martin move north makes little sense.

The Suns in the coming days are set to unveil triple premiership coach Hardwick as their new coach on a five-year deal.

Meanwhile at Richmond, Hardwick, Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin have all departed – and Martin has one year left on his seven-year deal.

The triple North Smith Medallist was breathtaking in Riewoldt and Cotching’s farewell game on Saturday, booting three goals from 31 dispossals, 11 contested possessions, seven marks, seven inside 50s and five intercepts in a reminder of just how brilliant he still is.

Hardwick was asked about a potential Martin trade last week – and baulked at the question.

Martin, 32, has been renowned for his loyalty to people and club during his time at Richmond. He played his 288th game against North Melbourne on Saturday, leaving him half a season away from joining Kevin Bartlett, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Shane Edwards and Francis Bourke in the Tigers 300-game club.

But the reality is with a booming list and a reinvigorated Hardwick at the helm, the Suns are more likely to play finals and challenge for a flag than Richmond in the short term.

And a Suns move is perhaps Martin’s best in-career chance for a change of scenery and lifestyle.

Asked what the Tigers might want for Martin in a potential trade with the Suns, four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis told Fox Footy on Friday night: “At the end of the day, it’s probably up to Dusty if he wants to go. You’re losing two legends this weekend, so how much do you want to clean out? There might be an attractive offer to go up with Damien Hardwick to Queensland.

“If it happens, I think an early second-rounder would be something that you’d cop.”

When it was suggested the Tigers should ask for the Suns’ first selection (currently Pick 4), a shocked Lewis said: “You reckon a first-round pick? Dreaming!”

But as triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown pointed out, Martin’s back-loaded deal – believed to be worth around $1.4 million next year – might be a sticking point for the Suns.

“I think the issue would be the salary. I’m not sure whether Gold Coast have a huge amount of room and I don’t think Richmond supporters would be happy if they were paying some of Dusty’s salary to play elsewhere,” Brown told Fox Footy.

Brown’s sentiment was echoed by Hawthorn legend Luke Hodge, who said he couldn’t see Martin joining the Suns unless the “Richmond are paying 90 per cent of his salary”.

“We’ve seen in the past that if you overpay people, it’s not going to work for you,” Hodge told SEN’s Crunch Time.

“We just said how good that list is … The Academy kids – they’ll miss finals – so they’re going to get three top-15 picks this year.

“I don’t see the point in going and spending a lot of salary cap room for a bloke who’s 33 and he’s going to pay forward. Develop young forwards at a quarter of the price.

“If you want people to put eyes on Gold Coast, rather than get a Dusty Martin, you’ve got a bloke who’s living there who’s kicked 1000 goals – go and get him as an ambassador to come to games and do that stuff, if you want to bring eyes to the Gold Coast Suns. Don’t go and pay someone that’s in your salary cap, which is going to take away more players when they go and re-sign or lose some up and coming kids.”

Despite a possible bottom-four finish this year, there’s genuine optimism around the Suns’ list, which will only be boosted by a host of star academy graduates – key forward Jed Walter, ruck Ethan Read and midfielder Jake Rogers – via this year’s draft. They’ve also worked hard off the field to get their salary cap under control after a lot of trade pain – and at some stage you’d think they’d have to pay overs again considering the challenge of attracting star players to the area.

But should Martin – a player coming towards the end of his career – be that player?

For what it’s worth, Richmond has little interest in moving Martin on.

“The speculation just goes on and on,” Tigers chief executive Brendon Gale told ABC Sport on Saturday.

“Firstly, Dustin is contracted, I will say that. Secondly, he is a really important part of our club for a bunch of reasons. Three, despite some of the challenges and despite our form and our inability to get the ball in the front half (this season), he is a very good player.

“I just think he has looked back maybe the last couple of years with Edwards and Riewoldt and Cotchin and sees the importance of legacy and history and what that means.

“He has the opportunity to play 300 games next year. He knows what that means at our football club. I just can’t see a scenario where he is not at Richmond.”

MAGPIES’ VERY REAL PROBLEMS, AND BIG RISKS, AT WORST POSSIBLE TIME

Collingwood may be top of the table with one round to play, but it is far from smooth sailing for the premiership favourites.

The Pies’ 24-point loss to the Brisbane Lions on Friday night marked a third defeat in four matches, with injury and a drop in output a feature of the last month.

While the malaise has been somewhat eased by the fact the club has all-but locked away a top-two spot, they are not showing the form that most eventual premiers do at this time of the year.

Still, hints of frustration could be gleaned from coach Craig McRae, who is managing a slump he had yet to encounter in his largely successful stint at the helm so far.

Availability of players, or lack thereof, has been an issue for the Pies in recent weeks, with Jordan De Goey, Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore and Bobby Hill all missing from Friday night’s side with injury.

With a home Qualifying Final virtually assured heading into Friday night’s game against a spluttering Essendon side, the age-old question of resting players was put to McRae.

“We’re here to improve ourselves, we’re here to put our best team out there that’s available,” he said.

“Why would you take a risk on someone next week if they weren’t quite right? I’m not sure anyone would do that.”

McRae has bristled at any suggestion the club would rest players who are fit to play and his frustrations were evident throughout Friday night’s press conference.

“He was circumspect the way he was answering then. He’s feeling a bit of pressure at the moment because, let‘s be honest for the bulk of the season – and no one is going to be the best team of the season as long as Collingwood have so far – I think we can all agree they’re no longer the best team in the comp,” Hawthorn champion Dermott Brereton told Fox Footy Live.

“Craig McRae was coached by Leigh Matthews – and coaches take on so much of the coach that had the biggest influence on their career. Leigh Matthews won’t give you a break before finals. McRae might change a little bit for his own style, but he’s going into finals and it’ll be ‘rip in’.

“Given his druthers, I don’t think he would like to rest people for the sake of getting them cherry ripe. I just reckon he leaves them out because they’re injured and they’re not capable through injury. As a Leigh Matthews disciple, he doesn’t strike me as someone who says: ‘You could run at 80 per cent this week, you get cherry ripe.’

“So I reckon he’s feeling a bit of pressure now that he’s no longer the best team. I hope for their sake and the Magpies supporters’ sake they get back because for such a brilliant season, I hope they can recapture that pinnacle form they had six weeks ago.”

Illustrating the delicacy of the balancing act facing McRae were comments in that press conference that De Goey would’ve played on Friday night if it were a final.

Given that, he is likely to be available for selection against Essendon, so under McRae’s mindset he would be wanting to play the star midfield-forward.

Still, McRae hinted he was well aware of the change in fortunes that could come once September is underway.

“In two weeks’ time, it’s a different game,” he said. “The whole competition starts again. It doesn’t really matter where you qualify, it all starts again.

“The challenge for us is not to be there already. Then you get there and you haven’t got the energy … then you get there and there’s a switch and you click it? That’s not reality.

“You want certain parts of your game going well; it doesn’t have to be all humming along … I think that doesn’t necessarily need to be the case.”

Darcy Moore is set to be at full fitness for the final and Hill was only sore, with scans clearing him of any damage, so the big guns will begin to return for the Pies when it matters most.

Still, McRae’s former coach Leigh Matthews once referenced Predator’s “If it bleeds, we can kill it” line in preparing his Brisbane Lions for an Essendon powerhouse in the early 2000s.

The Pies have bled plenty in recent weeks, setting the stage for a fascinating September.