GF replay in week one as Dogs fall over? AFL finals equation for all 13 contenders with 2 rounds left

The finish line is within sight.

With two rounds left in the 2023 season, the ladder predictor has gone into overdrive, with just 18 games to decide those who remain in the race for premiership glory.

Whether it’s trying to lock up a top four spot, or just trying to get into September, The Run Home reveals what the 13 remaining contenders need over the next fortnight.

Watch every match of every round of the 2023 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE on Kayo Sports. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >

PREDICTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwood vs Melbourne at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Carlton vs Adelaide Crows at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Geelong vs Sydney Swans at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (19-4)

2. Port Adelaide (17-6)

3. Brisbane Lions (16-7)

4. Melbourne (15-8)

5. Carlton (14-8-1)

6. Geelong (12-10-1)

7. Sydney Swans (12-10-1)

8. Adelaide Crows (12-11)

9. Western Bulldogs (12-11)

10. St Kilda (12-11)

11. GWS Giants (12-11)

12. Essendon (11-12)

13. Richmond (10-12-1)

14. Gold Coast Suns (10-13)

15. Fremantle (9-14)

16. Hawthorn (8-15)

17. North Melbourne (2-21)

18. West Coast Eagles (2-21)

KEY TALKING POINTS

– Collingwood is effectively locked into the top two, and will finish 1st with one more win (or one more Lions loss);

– Brisbane is in the box seat for the other home qualifying final but probably still needs to beat the Magpies next week, with Port Adelaide hoping to hold serve and sneak back into second, while Melbourne is now the outsider (and faces a very tricky final round in Sydney);

– Carlton isn’t 100% locked into the finals but it’d be very hard for them to miss from here, and they could even sneak into the top four if the Hawks upset the Dees next week;

– There are still roughly seventy bajillion possibilities for the last few spots in the top eight, but if things go as we’re predicting, there will be half a game separating sixth from 11th, and percentage breaking a four-way tie for 8th;

– If any of St Kilda, the Bulldogs, GWS or Essendon get to 13 wins, they will play finals. If none can, percentage should decide which one or two of them make it; which is why Adelaide still has a real shot of sneaking in. The Crows must beat Sydney next week first;

– Just like the Blues, Sydney and Geelong are likely-but-not-certain to play finals if they reach 12 and a half wins. For the Swans that means beating either Adelaide away or Melbourne at home; for the Cats that means beating both the Saints and Bulldogs.

– Richmond is basically done and Gold Coast is officially done;

– Our current scenario would involve Geelong and Sydney winning their spots in the eight because of Round 24 wins, and GWS missing out because of a loss to Carlton in the very last game of the season. So yeah, that weekend is gonna be crazy.

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

1. COLLINGWOOD (17-4, 126.7%)

To play: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium, Essendon at the MCG

To lock up minor premiership: Win once OR Brisbane loses once

Best case: Finish 1st (see above scenario)

Worst case: Finish 2nd by losing twice AND Brisbane wins in Round 24

Analysis: As quickly as the Magpies’ spot at the top looked a little shaky, it got sured up, with Craig McRae’s men now needing just one more win to finish on top of the ladder. They’re not mathematically locked into the top two, but Melbourne can’t catch them, and unless Port Adelaide wins their last two games by 100 points and the Magpies lose their last two by 100 points, the Power can’t catch them either. A loss to the Lions next week would add a slight bit of drama to Round 24, because otherwise the Essendon game will be totally irrelevant for the Magpies; they would be able to rest players as needed. (Though they wouldn’t want to let the Bombers win their way into the eight, of course…)

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 1st at 19-4, host Melbourne in a qualifying final

2. BRISBANE LIONS (15-6, 123.2%)

To play: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium, St Kilda at the Gabba

To lock up top two: Go 2-0 OR match Port Adelaide and Melbourne’s results

To lock up top four: Locked

Best case: Finish 2nd by going 2-0 OR match Port Adelaide and Melbourne’s results

Worst case: Finish 4th by going 1-1 while Port Adelaide and Melbourne go 2-0, OR by going 0-2 while Port Adelaide and Melbourne win at least once

Analysis: They’re officially locked into the top four, and Caleb Marchbank’s hand has given the Lions a huge chance at a home qualifying final, as they now control their destiny in the race for second place. Win out and they’ll host either the Demons or Power at the Gabba; but lose to Collingwood next week and the race resets to where we were a few weeks ago. They’d then need another Port Adelaide slip-up and to edge back ahead of Melbourne, either on percentage or via a victory. Still a wide range of results on offer here, and it makes the Magpies game absolutely massive.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 3rd at 16-7, away to Port Adelaide in a qualifying final

3. PORT ADELAIDE (15-6, 111%)

To play: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Richmond at Adelaide Oval

To lock up top two: Go 2-0 AND Brisbane loses once OR go 1-1 AND Brisbane goes 0-2 AND Melbourne loses once

To lock up top four: Locked

Best case: Finish 2nd (see above scenario)

Worst case: Finish 4th by losing once AND Melbourne goes 2-0 AND Brisbane wins once, OR losing twice AND Melbourne goes 1-1

Analysis: Remember when everything was going terribly for Port Adelaide, roughly… a week ago? They’re suddenly back in a strong position to host a qualifying final. If they just win their remaining games, and Brisbane loses to Collingwood next week as would be expected, they’ll be hosting either the Lions or Demons with a home prelim on the line. Their comparatively poor percentage still means they can’t afford a mistake if they don’t want to be travelling in week one, though.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 2nd at 17-6, host Brisbane in a qualifying final

4. MELBOURNE (14-7, 124%)

To play: Hawthorn at the MCG, Sydney Swans at the SCG

To lock up top two: Go 2-0 AND Port Adelaide and Brisbane lose at least once (must stay ahead of Brisbane on percentage)

To lock up top four: Win once

Best case: Finish 2nd by going 2-0 AND Port Adelaide and Brisbane lost at least once (must stay ahead of Brisbane on percentage)

Worst case: Finish 5th by going 0-2 AND Carlton goes 2-0

Analysis: That thrilling loss to the Blues has remarkably kept the door open for one last change to the top four, with the Demons still needing one more win to ensure Carlton can’t pinch their double chance. You’d think they’d get that against Hawthorn next week, but you never know with this Hawks side. Simon Goodwin’s men are also a step behind in the race for a home qualifying final, needing help from above – that’s the Lions and Power losing again, but He could probably lend a hand too. With Brisbane facing Collingwood next week there are still a wide range of results on offer; if the Lions lose, a Round 24 percentage battle looms, which could then decide second, third or fourth. And so we’re back asking the question of whether they’d prefer an ‘away’ MCG qualifying final against Collingwood, or a proper away one in Adelaide or Brisbane…

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 4th at 15-8, face Collingwood in a qualifying final

5. CARLTON (12-8-1, 116.8%)

To play: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium, GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Easiest path to top eight: Win once

Best case: Finish 4th by going 2-0 AND Melbourne goes 0-2

Worst case: Miss finals by going 0-2, while four of the Saints/Swans/Bulldogs/Giants/Bombers/Cats reach 12.5+ wins with a good enough percentage

Analysis: They’re not definitely playing finals… it’s just very likely. After a heartstopping, and perhaps fortunate, win over Melbourne, the Blues would require a very unfortunate series of events to miss the top eight from here. That’d include losing both of their remaining matches, so they can simply secure their spot with one more victory. But as we’ve been saying for months now, you’re pretty close to locked in with 12 and a half wins anyway – maybe it comes down to percentage with the Swans and/or Cats, maybe enough teams reach 13-plus wins… we just think there are enough losses to go around that the Blues won’t be caught now. And, more to the point, they’re good enough to beat the Suns and/or Giants anyway. There’s even a world where they sneak into the top four, but it’d require Hawthorn to upset Melbourne for them first.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 5th at 14-8-1, host Adelaide in an elimination final

6. ST KILDA (12-9, 107%)

To play: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Easiest path to top eight: Win twice (but probably safe with one win too)

Best case: Finish 5th by going 2-0 AND Carlton loses once

Worst case: Miss finals by losing twice while three of the Swans/Bulldogs/Bombers/Cats/Crows reach 12+ wins with a good enough percentage

Analysis: We said last week they needed to win twice more, and the games were about to get progressively harder. So the Saints did what they had to do and won the easiest of the three. And now it’s actually pretty simple. One more win, most likely over the Cats, would effectively clinch their spot in September. If they lose their next two, it’s likely to come down to percentage… and theirs isn’t great, especially because in this scenario, they’d be losing more over the next fortnight. It’s obviously a nervy time for St Kilda fans but in a way, you can’t ask for much more – your team controls its fate. Win and in.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 0-2, finish 10th at 12-11 (out on percentage)

7. SYDNEY SWANS (11-9-1, 112.1%)

To play: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Melbourne at the SCG

Easiest path to top eight: Win twice

Best case: Finish 5th by going 2-0 AND Carlton and St Kilda lose at least once (must also gain percentage on Blues)

Worst case: Miss finals by losing twice OR losing once AND three of the Cats/Dogs/Saints/Bombers/Giants reach 12.5+ wins (likely Geelong/GWS winning twice and St Kilda winning once)

Analysis: Percentage isn’t supposed to matter once you’ve had a draw; it could still decide Sydney’s fate. Saturday’s win has given them a gap on the chasing pack but with two very tough games remaining, they’re certainly not safe yet. Two more wins will definitely get them there, and probably into a home elimination final. One more win and it’s going to be interesting – they’re probably safe on 12 and a half, because there are enough games between the teams around/below them (Saints-Cats, Dogs-Cats, Bombers-Giants) that it’s unlikely three of the Cats, Dogs, Saints, Bombers and Giants would be able to pass them. But, like with Carlton (who are already on 12 and a half), it’s not yet certain. The issue then for the Swans could be percentage vs Geelong – the way we see things playing out, a Grand Final rematch looms in an elimination final, and it would determine hosting rights. Though maybe they’d enjoy another shot at the Cats at the MCG?

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 7th at 12-10-1 (on percentage), away to Geelong in an elimination final

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-10, 108.5%)

To play: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Easiest path to top eight: Win twice (would not be 100% certain to make it, but extremely likely)

Best case: Finish 5th by going 2-0 AND Carlton loses twice AND St Kilda loses at least once

Worst case: Miss finals by losing twice OR going 1-1 while three of the Saints/Swans/Giants/Bombers/Cats/Crows reach 12+ wins with a good enough percentage

Analysis: Oh no. Our confidence in the Dogs playing finals was always based on the assumption they’d bank wins in the final rounds, because they were playing two of the bottom three teams. Except, just like in 2021, they’ve fallen victim to a Hawthorn upset in Launceston. Now, they overcame it two years ago, still making a Grand Final. But now they’re in a battle just to make the eight. If they win their last two games, they’ll get there, but as we’ve been saying for a while you don’t want to head into the final round needing to beat Geelong in Geelong. Especially since the Dogs have seemingly lost every game against the Cats dating back to the bicentennial. They could sneak into the eight with 12 wins if everything else goes right, but it may come down to percentage. They should beat the Saints, Bombers and Giants in that scenario, helped by their game against but if Adelaide beats Sydney next weekend and joins the party, then things between them, the Saints and the Giants – and Adelaide could join the race too if they beat Sydney next weekend. Good thing the Dogs get the Eagles next week then; they absolutely need to try and thrash them to build percentage. Based on our predictions, it could decide their season.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 9th at 12-11 (out on percentage)

9. ESSENDON (11-10, 99.1%)

To play: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Collingwood at the MCG

Easiest path to top eight: Win twice (would not be 100% certain to make it, but extremely likely)

Best case: Finish 5th by going 2-0 AND Carlton, St Kilda lose twice AND Sydney, Western Bulldogs lose once

Worst case: Miss finals by losing twice OR losing once and losing a percentage fight on 12 wins

Analysis: Beating the bottom two by 10 points doesn’t exactly fill us with confidence, but the Bombers’ season is at least alive. They’re probably going to need to win their last two to play finals (and they’ll be underdogs in both) because they’re very unlikely to win a tie on 12 wins. They’re a long-shot at this point, but being in the mix (and having a winning record!) this deep into the season is still above what almost everybody expected in Brad Scott’s first year.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 0-2, finish 12th at 11-12

10. GWS GIANTS (11-10, 98.6%)

To play: Essendon at Giants Stadium, Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Easiest path to top eight: Win twice (would not be 100% certain to make it, but extremely likely)

Best case: Finish 5th by going 2-0 AND St Kilda loses twice AND Carlton loses in Round 23 AND Sydney, Western Bulldogs lose once

Worst case: Miss finals by losing twice OR losing once and losing a percentage fight on 12 wins

Analysis: We knew the last three weeks were going to be tough for the Giants, and an understandable but disappointingly big loss to Port Adelaide has made the task even tougher. But they can certainly still make the eight, especially if they win their last two – they’ll be favoured against the Bombers at home, and perhaps they’ll get a Blues side in Round 24 that actually isn’t playing for anything (as they could already be locked into 5th). Even if it’s a live game for Carlton, it’s still winnable for Adam Kingsley’s men. If they get stuck on 12 wins we suspect they’re in trouble; a year of mostly close wins has meant their percentage isn’t very good. Maybe everyone falls over around them and they stumble into eighth – a win for Sydney over Adelaide would really help them, and Geelong certainly isn’t a sure thing to go 2-0 as we’re tipping. To put it a bit simpler – next week is an elimination final. Win that and we’ll see where they sit.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 11th at 12-11 (out on percentage)

11. GEELONG (10-10-1, 117.5%)

To play: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Easiest path to top eight: Win twice (would not be 100% certain to make it, but extremely likely)

Best case: Finish 5th by going 2-0 AND Carlton loses twice AND Sydney loses at least once AND St Kilda loses in Round 24 AND the GWS vs Essendon winner loses in Round 24

Worst case: Miss finals by losing once (could mathematically make it with 11 wins and a draw but incredibly unlikely)

Analysis: They’ve used up their nine lives. (Or, in this case, 10 and a half.) One more loss will effectively end Geelong’s season, after allowing Collingwood to run over the top of them on Friday night. However it’s worth pointing out other results were reasonably good for them this weekend. Their strong percentage holds them in good stead vs Sydney above them, and if they beat both the Saints and Bulldogs, they still look pretty likely to make the eight with 12 and a half wins. They can catch the Saints, and the Dogs’ loss to Hawthorn means it’s now looking likely Round 24 will be an elimination final. But, again – they have to actually win. And losing three of their last four isn’t exactly the type of form they brought into last year’s finals series.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 6th at 12-10-1 (on percentage), host Sydney in an elimination final

12. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-11, 115.8%)

To play: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval, West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Easiest path to top eight: Win twice AND the Saints lose twice AND the Bulldogs, Giants and Bombers lose at least once

Best case: Finish 7th by going 2-0 AND Sydney loses in Round 24 AND Geelong beats Western Bulldogs but loses to St Kilda AND GWS vs Essendon winner loses in Round 24

Worst case: Miss finals by losing once

Analysis: Despite falling agonisingly short against Brisbane, the Crows’ season is alive – mostly thanks to Hawthorn. While there are other pathways for Matthew Nicks’ men to sneak into the eight on 12 wins, the way we’re predicting things to fall, they’ll inch past the Bulldogs (and Saints, Giants and Bombers) for eighth based on percentage. They still need results to go their way; whoever wins the Giants-Bombers game next week needs to lose in Round 24, for example. And a slip-up against the Swans next week would end their season, because 11 and a half wins is now the minimum to make the eight. But win that game, and with a final-round percentage buffet on offer against the Eagles, they’re going to win any tie on 12 wins. It’s a slim chance of sneaking into September, but we like the chances of the dominoes falling the right way.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 8th at 12-11 (in on percentage), away to Carlton in an elimination final

13. RICHMOND (9-11-1, 93.1%)

To play: North Melbourne at the MCG, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

‘Easiest’ path to top eight: Win twice by big margins AND Sydney loses twice by big margins AND the Western Bulldogs lose twice AND GWS vs Essendon is a draw AND Adelaide, GWS and Essendon lose in Round 24

Best case: Finish 8th (see above scenario, and there may be others just as complex)

Worst case: Miss finals by losing once, or any of the above requirements don’t happen

Analysis: Look, they’re done. The absolute minimum to make the eight now is 11 and a half wins – the Tigers can get there, but have a terrible percentage, and so would need enormous margins in their favour in both their games and other teams’ games. They also would need a GWS-Essendon draw (because otherwise one of them reaches 12 wins and locks them out).

Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 13th at 10-12-1

While seemingly still mathematically alive, being two wins out of the eight with two rounds left, Gold Coast was eliminated on Saturday afternoon via their loss to Sydney in combination with Essendon’s win over North Melbourne.

At that point the Suns were on nine wins, unable to catch any of the six teams on 11 and a half or more. The Bulldogs, Saints, Giants and Bombers were all on 11 wins with the Cats on 10 and a half.

The Saints/Cats and Giants/Bombers games in Round 23, plus Bulldogs/Cats in Round 24, therefore guaranteed enough teams would reach at least 11 and a half wins – no matter which results took place in those games, even draws.

Gold Coast, Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast cannot play finals.