The next best thing to a first Roosters-Rabbitohs grand final in 88 years looms large, as Cronulla’s revived top-four bid holds the key to the hopes of seven clubs scrambling to fill finals slots.
The race for the top eight is increasingly likely to go right down to the final whistle of the regular season, when the Sharks – currently sitting fifth – host a perilously placed Raiders side whose top-four hopes have crumbled.
No wonder Ricky Stuart fumed his way through just 80 seconds of the press conference after Sunday’s 48-2 capitulation against Melbourne before stomping out.
The stakes are that high and are only getting higher. Just four competition points separate Cronulla in fifth and the Roosters in 11th, causing angst aplenty for the Raiders, Knights, Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Eels in between.
Which brings the six games between the scrambling sides into sharp focus – where a win is worth double given a victory secures two points, deprives a nearby rival of the same and, should the atoms need to be split, ensures a positive for-and-against outcome from that contest.
The Sharks are the only side playing fellow top-eight contenders to round out their regular season, starting with the Cowboys on their own Townsville turf this Thursday, before the Knights in Newcastle and the Raiders at home.
The NRL’s four-point swing games
Round 25
Cowboys (9) v Sharks (5)
Eels (10) v Roosters (11)
Knights (7) v Rabbitohs (8)
Round 26
Knights (7) v Sharks (5)
Round 27
Rabbitohs (8) v Roosters (11)
Sharks (5) v Raiders (6)
*Ladder position leading into round 25.
Their +110 for and against is just as critical as Canberra’s -120 (again, see the steam from Sticky’s ears after a 46-point hit in Melbourne) and the Roosters’ -84.
The Tricolours face another must-win clash against a Mitchell Moses-less Parramatta on Friday night, with the hapless Wests Tigers to follow.
Realistically, Trent Robinson’s side needs to put a decent dent in that points differential while jagging a couple of wins to lift them to 30 competition points.
Souths might well meet them there. The Rabbitohs are currently sitting on 28 points in eighth spot (with a precious +92 for and against), have dropped down the ladder since Origin and are only slight favourites against the Knights on Sunday, who are nursing Jackson Hastings’s ankle injury, but hopeful the No.7 could play.
A round 26 bye will leave South Sydney with either 30 or 32 points leading into a mouthwatering final-round, Friday night clash with the Roosters at Accor Stadium.
If the Tricolours win their way through the next two weeks to that clash, one foundation club will likely be ending the season of the other – it’s unlikely there’s room for both heavyweights in this year’s top eight.
Rugby league hasn’t seen a grand final between its fiercest rivals since 1935. A last-round decider and the same winner takes all sweepstakes, to follow last year’s sin-bin Sunday in the opening week of the finals, isn’t the worst alternative.
Meanwhile, Newcastle’s single point from an April Fool’s Day 32-all draw against Manly could well prove decisive.
Six straight wins have Newcastle in the finals reckoning, but Jackson Hastings’ injury hangs over their finals hopes.Credit: Getty
Thirteen wins shapes as the top-eight cut-off in a 17-team competition, and if the Knights can knock off Souths or Cronulla with the Dragons to round out their regular season, that single point suddenly lifts them above finals rivals on the ladder. It’s the same equation that sinks Manly (25 points) into also-ran territory already.
That said, any lay-off for Hastings would hold the same influence as Moses’ facial fracture at Parramatta. Season-defining.
And then, with the Eels still in mind, is the not-so minor prospect of heavyweights Penrith and Brisbane resting key players with their own finals spots assured.
If Parramatta can keep their own season alive on Friday night and in turn end the Roosters’, they face the high-flying Panthers before a round 27 bye.
The run home for the NRL finals contenders
- PENRITH (38 points, +289) versus Titans (away), Eels (home), Cowboys (h)
- BRISBANE (38, +213) v bye, Raiders (a), Storm (h)
- WARRIORS (34, +129) v Sea Eagles (h), Dragons (h), Dolphins (a)
- MELBOURNE (32, +127) v Dragons (a), Titans (h), Broncos (a)
- CRONULLA (30, +110) v Cowboys (a), Knights (a), Raiders (h)
- CANBERRA (30, -120) v Bulldogs (h), Broncos (h), Sharks (a)
- NEWCASTLE (29, +110) v Rabbitohs (h), Sharks (h), Dragons (a)
- SOUTH SYDNEY (28, +92) v Knights (a), bye, Roosters (h)
- NORTH QUEENSLAND (28, +32) v Sharks (h), Dolphins (a), Panthers (a)
- PARRAMATTA (26, +21) v Roosters (h), Panthers (a), bye
- SYDNEY ROOSTERS (26, -84) v Eels (a), Tigers (h), Rabbitohs (a)
- MANLY (25, -47) v Warriors (a), Bulldogs (a), Tigers (h)
Courtesy of AAP.
The ninth-placed Cowboys quite enjoyed facing Ivan Cleary’s side less a dozen stars this time last year, rightfully rested with the minor premiership already sewn up.
The temptation to bench some of his best must be there again for Cleary given Penrith sent more players than any other club to last year’s World Cup in England.
North Queensland travel to Penrith in the last round and like the six rivals jammed around them on the ladder, need at least two wins from the next three weeks – against the Sharks, Dolphins and Panthers – to secure a finals spot.
Fittingly for a 2023 campaign regularly dubbed the closest on record, the top eight won’t be sorted until the regular season’s final whistle – with a few atoms split along the way.
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