By Neil Evans
Selections based on a soft track
Race 1 3YO PLATE (1200m)
4. Talma I Love Her can peak third up. Went to the front here 12 days ago and stuck on for a long way, and hitting peak fitness now with a crucial 1.5kg claim.
Dangers: 3. Rule Of Salex has had two forward trials and starts in blinkers. Scratched from Wyong on Thursday to be saved for this. 7. Fools Play is in the mix on a much better speed map here after charging home on debut at huge odds in that same race as the top selection. Bjorn Baker-trained stablemate of Rule Of Salex, 8. Rockabilly Rebel third up and back in grade from two ordinary runs at the provincials, and at bigger odds 6. Erelle at third start can figure in the money.
How to play it: Talma I Love Her to win
King Of The Castle (inside) is the top selection for the cup.Credit: Getty
Race 2 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1000m)
2. Debussy can take the next step here fourth up and staying at the distance. Punctured late when ridden too close in tougher Highway company before rebounding smartly, zooming home to claim a BM 66 at Grafton carrying 2kg more. Drawn to get cover.
Dangers: 8. Baiyka hit the line hard in that same race as the top selection three weeks back. Is a specialist over this short trip, and gets a nice drop in weight for the rise in grade. Just needs to finish it off. 10. Ain’t She Lovely second up comes back from a fillies and mares metro race over the border. 5. Lucky Sham resumes with gear changes. 7. Nosey ran home late behind Debussy and is afforded a big drop in weight. 11. Soju Session reloads off a seven-week break for the new Port stable.
How to play it: Debussy to win
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m)
8. Thinkin Bo You hasn’t started since mid-January but can run a mighty race fresh at good odds with winkers on for the first time. Ran home well from worse than midfield in three straight runs up to 1500m to close out the last prep, and drawn to get a nice trail with cover here. Was scratched from a winnable race recently to be saved for this.
Dangers: With an edge in fitness deep into his prep, and drawn to get a soft run right behind the speed, 4. La Cache A Vin will be hard to hold out, having beaten all bar the winner in his last two. 1. Bendolirra will be right in the finish fifth up if he can get some cover from a tricky middle gate. 7. Scotland was well backed at double-figure odds when running home late fourth up in that same race as the former. 10. I’m Madeline can run into the money fourth up with gear changes.
How to play it: Thinkin’ Bo You each way
Race 4 CLASS 2 HCP (1600m)
5. Listen To Maurice made up a tonne of ground resuming in a weaker race despite being unwanted in betting, and back at home now over his pet trip with a pivotal 3.5kg drop in weight augurs well. Just needs to find cover and get a clear crack at them from the 400m.
Dangers: 1. Passionate Rebel is a proven weight carrier. Has won two of his last three from in front and well off speed but still shapes under the odds under 59kg in a good field for this class. 6. Proud With Pride is hard fit and more than ready for this tougher class after sweeping home from the back for a smart win at Grafton. At bigger odds, 9. Daedalus can be hard to follow but is also capable of flooding home over this trip down on the limit weight. 4. Kennysing fourth up and 10. Never Island off a dominant last-start maiden win head the rest.
How to play it: Listen To Maurice each way
Race 5 KEN HOWARD CUP (2000m)
1. Olympic Theatre has been mixing his form this prep but profiles well here carrying the same weight as a fair effort in BM 72 company at Canterbury only nine days ago. Suspecting in this bigger field he will be ridden quieter, and he has winning form up to 2350m.
Dangers: 6. Roller Coaster will be hard to beat on a 10-day back-up from an ideal trailing draw after charging home in a provincial BM 66 carrying a hefty 7kg more. Best weighted runner in the race right down on the limit. 3. Socrates gets his chance dropping 3.5kg after four inconsistent runs at Warwick Farm this prep up to BM 72 level. At big odds, watch for any money around 7. Spoke To Rajiv. Punctured badly when stepping up sharply to metro BM 78 grade, but previous two country wins were full of merit. 8. A Deel Of Humour fifth up and dropping back from tougher metro opposition goes in trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Olympic Theatre to win
Race 6 DANIEL BAKER SPRINT (1200m)
Keen on 4. French Marine first up for more than six months. Was very competitive up to BM 78 metro grade last prep and stable has given her plenty of time to prepare for this, topped off by an impressive open class trial win nine days ago.
Dangers: 1. Greyworm took on better races earlier in the prep and stuck on well in a BM 95 at Grafton three weeks back. Looks well treated after the junior rider’s 4kg claim. Despite a wide draw, 6. Boncassie is capable of being in the finish second up if she can utilise that early tactical speed. 10. Kosciusko progresses off a BM 86 win here a fortnight ago. 2. Tara Jasmine hasn’t done much in two runs back from a spell, but her old form would put her right in the finish.
How to play it: French Marine to win
Race 7 COFFS HARBOUR CUP (1600m)
Like 12. King Of The Castle to win an open edition of the feature cup backing up in six days from a narrow defeat in a BM 88 at Randwick. Looked home that day when he burst between runners late, and it came off a fast-finishing effort against similar opposition when powering home from a lot further back. Drawn to sit a few lengths off the speed here with cover, and gets in terrific at the weights on the 54kg limit.
Dangers: 11. Stonecoat looks beautifully placed on the quick turnaround from a soft draw. Led for a long way in that same Randwick race as the top selection, and, given he will take up a forward spot, should be right there at the business end. Plenty to like about the last start listed run from 4. Steely coming off a five-week freshen. Loves this trip but shoots up sharply in weight. 1. Hosier won this race last year and has built a smart 40 per cent winning strike rate from 15 starts. Ran home late in the Listed Winter Challenge at Rosehill as well. 7. Battleton has been fair in his last two after storming home to claim a metro BM 78 three starts back. 6. Attractable is hard fit and loves dry ground, and Gold Coast-based 13. The Ritz second up goes in wider exotic plays.
How to play it: King Of The Castle to win
Race 8 CLASS 3 HCP (1200m)
At very big odds, provincial visitor 11. The Chosen One can make it two straight, despite stepping up in class. Loved the way he charged home to beat a handy BM 58 country field in his first outing for more than six months, and drops 3.5kg for this.
Dangers: Emerging four-year-old 2. Convincebility was dominant from the front resuming against similar opposition but wouldn’t be diving into too short a price drawn the outside barrier. 3. Mr Tabasco draws to get cover, and can run a big race fresh off a trial win. 6. Iobject gets good weight relief off a fighting win in weaker class. 4.Olakau’atu fourth with blinkers back on heads the rest.
How to play it: The Chosen One each way
BEST BETS: Race 2 (2) DEBUSSY; Race 6 (4) FRENCH MARINE
BEST VALUE: Race 7 (12) KING OF THE CASTLE
