New flag threat to Pies looms large as unthinkable September reality emerges: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

A dramatic round shook up the finals race but the biggest difference came in the top four, where nobody changed places on the ladder – but a clear No.2 threat emerged.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. COLLINGWOOD (16-3, 132.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

Of the top four losses from a surprising weekend, the Magpies’ might’ve been the most notable – because it started the round, and because of the size of the fixture – but it’s also the least concerning. And not just because Carlton is a quality opponent. After weeks of getting a bit fortunate, kicking straight while their opponents missed their chances – 13.7 vs 12.11 against Port, 12.10 vs 11.14 against Adelaide, 9.8 vs 8.18 against Melbourne – the Magpies went the other way. We’re not saying they should have necessarily won, with the Blues dominating in the midfield and looking very composed in key moments, but the Pies kicked 10.16 to 14.9; that’s a large portion of the margin right there. We’re keeping the Pies at No.1 because of this, but we do want to flag a growing body of evidence that they haven’t been that great since King’s Birthday. A lot of their underlying numbers are middling. Just one to watch. They’re not gonna lose to the Hawks, but could Geelong and/or Brisbane get them after that?

Next game: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday twilight

2. MELBOURNE (13-6, 124.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

If you’re a believer in the theory that the team bringing form into the finals is the biggest premiership threat, then Melbourne is the clear No.1 challenger to Collingwood right now. They’ve scored 97-plus points in their last three games, all against quality opposition, and results have given them the genuine opportunity to pinch second and a home qualifying final. It’s not like finishing fourth and facing the Magpies would be a disaster, but clearly finishing second and forcing the Power or Lions on the road would be massive for the Dees’ flag chances, setting them up for three consecutive MCG finals on route to a potential premiership. Remember, they’ve still got Clayton Oliver to come back… and they arguably played the best game against the Pies all season. We want to see them continue this form before declaring them the new favourites, especially since two of their recent wins were only by a kick, but they’re coming.

Next game: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena, Sunday early

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3. PORT ADELAIDE (14-5, 109.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

Suddenly the Power are on a three-game losing skid, and without Aliir Aliir and Lachie Jones for a dangerous trip to the Cattery, that could easily become four. That would overstate how they’ve been playing – as we wrote last week, they probably should’ve beaten Collingwood – but that’s just swings and roundabouts for the 13-game winning streak overstating their form at that time. While we still had them finishing second in this week’s Run Home, it’s hard to move up and down in our projections because they’re naturally conservative, and there’s a genuine chance the Power are forced into an away qualifying final now. They can overcome that, and would still be favoured to win pretty much any semi-final match-up were they to lose in week one, but as we’ve been saying for a while that’s a massive shift in their premiership chances.

Next game: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday night

4. BRISBANE LIONS (13-6, 125.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

…the hell was that? Against a Suns team basically playing for nothing but pride, and with a top-two spot right there for them to take (though they didn’t know Port was going to lose, obviously), the Lions were nowhere near the level of their in-state rivals. Touk Miller shut down Lachie Neale and understandably left Dayne Zorko angry, while after a tremendous defensive performance against Geelong, allowed a completely out-of-form Ben King to dominate. This had to be an immensely frustrating day for Lions fans, and while they can still finish second, the case they were building as an in-form September threat has suddenly evaporated.

Next game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Sunday twilight

5. CARLTON (10-8-1, 116.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

Tell your Carlton fan friends they’re a sure thing to play finals. They’ll love that. But jeez, they’re looking good aren’t they? They didn’t even need to beat Collingwood to remain in the finals race, and the margin was slightly flattering, but it was still a brilliant and very mature win for Michael Voss’ men. Two more wins will get them into the eight and suddenly that Round 24 game against GWS doesn’t look like it’ll be for a spot in the eight – but for the right to host an elimination final. They really should take care of St Kilda pretty comfortably this weekend. They’ve already recorded their longest winning streak since 2000, and to match it they’d need to win the flag… we’re not saying they’re gonna do that but the fact it’s even a remote possibility that the Blues make a prelim, never mind a Grand Final, is astounding. What if they finish sixth, and Collingwood finishes first, and the Pies host a prelim, and the Blues win twice to get there… Melbourne might implode.

Next game: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday afternoon

6. GWS GIANTS (11-8, 102.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

In a season where almost nobody pushing for the bottom half of the eight has shown consistent excellence, the Giants will completely deserve a finals spot if they nab one. It’s still not a sure thing, as a loss in the Sydney Derby would put them in a position where they must beat one of Port Adelaide or Carlton away. But the fact they’ve risen from the bottom four after Round 12, to this position where they’re one of the frontrunners for a spot in the eight, is pretty remarkable. Is Adam Kingsley the coach of the year? It’s him, Ken Hinkley or Craig McRae we suspect, but Kingsley might be doing the most with the least. Though having said that Sam Taylor and Toby Greene may be the best defender and forward in the comp, respectively…

Next game: Sydney Swans at Giants Stadium, Saturday night

7. GEELONG (9-9-1, 119.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

Any Cats fan will tell you they’ve had trouble with Fremantle in the past – finals losses in consecutive years, a current three-game skid – but that still doesn’t excuse potentially coughing up their season on Saturday afternoon. Throw in the injury concerns for Mark Blicavs and Tom Hawkins, and the premiers aren’t exactly in great shape heading into a critical fortnight, where they have to beat at least one of Port Adelaide and Collingwood. On paper they’re still good enough to do it, but they just keep making it so hard for themselves. We’d still take them as the most likely 2023 premier from outside the top four but they’re 50-50 chance to even make the eight at this point.

Next game: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday night

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-9, 105.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

Last time we talked about how the Bulldogs are exactly what we thought they were. And they still are, now just in a negative sense, after coughing up a huge lead in a mini-final against the Giants. The loss doesn’t eliminate them, but another one this Friday would threaten their season. Luke Beveridge gets quite a bit of heat from some analysts, and some of it’s fair and some isn’t. The list stuff is getting a bit silly – they have a top eight midfield, some promising young forwards who could both be superstars in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Cody Weightman, and Liam Jones. They’re not the second coming of the 2007 Cats. But the fact it’s the same problems time after time cruelling the Dogs – poor goalkicking and an inability to defend in transition, particularly the latter – has to go to the coach. Because that’s about the players and the gameplan.

Next game: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Friday night

9. SYDNEY SWANS (9-9-1, 111.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

It still feels like the Swans are the under-the-radar footy story in New South Wales – especially after the Buddy news, which is obviously enormous given what he’s done for football in that state. But in a pure football sense for this season, it really doesn’t matter that much; Franklin had found some form over the past few weeks, but you suspected that wouldn’t last based on how the rest of the season had gone. With three wins in a row, they’re sneaking back into the finals mix, but still need to knock off the Giants since they’ve got Adelaide away and Melbourne in the final two rounds.

Next game: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Saturday night

10. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

It was always going to be the Tigers’ defence that was going to cost them games – from the enormous score leaked against Brisbane which ruined their percentage, to allowing another 20 majors against Melbourne on Sunday, they’ve allowed 15-plus goals to be kicked six times. And unsurprisingly they’ve only won two of those games, both by just a kick. Of course it swings the other way too; their attack has looked very promising and been pretty consistent too, even without Tom Lynch (whose presence is clearly missed, forcing Jack Riewoldt into a much heavier role than he or the coaching staff would want). They move up a spot in the rankings partially because of their own solid performance against the Dees, which only blew out late, and because of the Bombers’ latest loss. Friday night is must-win.

Next game: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Friday night

11. ADELAIDE CROWS (9-10, 116%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

At least our faith in the Crows being better than their ladder position was boosted on Saturday night, with a second Showdown win this season, and with a strong percentage they still hold slim hopes of sneaking into the eight. They’re the outsider in a race we’d realistically say is between nine teams for four spots, and probably still need to beat Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 22, but they’re at least keeping themselves in it as long as possible – and hurting Port Adelaide in the process is a nice side benefit.

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval, Saturday afternoon

12. ESSENDON (9-10, 98.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

And there goes the Bombers’ season – not in a thumping loss, but in a painful thriller. Here’s how their next month will go; they’ll beat West Coast and North Melbourne, one of them coming a bit too close for comfort, and sit 11-10. They’ll be in the mix. But then they’ll lose to at least one of GWS or Collingwood and that’ll be it, since they’re almost certainly not making it with their percentage at 12 wins. A finals berth was always going to be a surprise this year but it’s still a little disappointing how they’ve faded out, because they did have their chances.

Next game: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Saturday afternoon

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-10, 95.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

After their horrific showing against Collingwood a few weeks back, the Suns have remembered they’re actually quite good at home – when you include their second home of Darwin, they’ve won seven games in comfortable conditions and just two away (over West Coast and Richmond). The first part is good; the second part is where you need to improve to become a genuine contender, and that’s something to work on going forwards. Starting this weekend, in fact, where the Suns can keep their glimmer of a finals dream alive by beating Adelaide. Of course, whenever they’ve got a sniff of the eight, they typically lose…

Next game: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Saturday afternoon

14. FREMANTLE (8-11, 89%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

It’s nice of the Dockers to save one of their best performances of the season for an almost entirely irrelevant time. They’re not winning out, and even if they are they’re not making the eight, but hey – green shoots for 2024 and all that. Honestly the worst thing they could do from here is win a few games and jump out of the bottom six, ensuring they have a harder draw next year. Being competitive without being successful would still be a step forwards from much of this year.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium, Sunday twilight

15. ST KILDA (11-8, 106.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

We’re still comfortable putting the Saints all the way down here – partially because we can’t exactly move them up when Gold Coast and Fremantle just beat much better teams than Hawthorn. It was great to finally see them kick a big score, but a lot of that was the opposition, and so they remain in this really weird position. As we tweeted on Sunday, there’s a massive gap between their reality (5th with four rounds left, haven’t been outside the top six all year) and perception (they’re not playing well). In a way it’s simple – they sured up their position by starting 6-2, and since then they’ve beaten the bottom three plus gotten somewhat lucky in close wins over GWS (who were a worse side at the time) and Sydney (who gave up a bunch of 50s late). The response from a few people to that tweet was “the ladder doesn’t lie”. We think any sensible person would argue it does. That doesn’t mean St Kilda wouldn’t deserve to play finals if they qualify – just that, in our view, they’re not good enough to actually do anything come September.

Next game: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday afternoon

16. HAWTHORN (5-14, 78.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

We didn’t even think it was possible for St Kilda to score over 120 points, but that’s the Hawks’ defence right there, charitably described as a work in progress. As they’ve done for much of the year, they followed up a good performance with a bad one, which as we continue to write is exactly what you expect from a young side – inconsistency.

Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday twilight

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-17, 50.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

Over the course of the season, the Eagles have been the AFL’s worst team – there’s no doubting that. But we have to give them a little bit of respect for actually beating North Melbourne, so up they go into 17th. It was a game where they simply looked more organised and professional than the Kangaroos, with a more obvious gameplan and fewer mistakes, which is a credit to the veterans and coaching staff for not just giving up. They knew the game had plenty of meaning, and while they’re almost certainly not going to avoid the wooden spoon – they’re not making up that percentage gap, so they’d need to win another game – that sheer feeling of relief on the final siren would’ve made the hard work worth it.

Next game: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Saturday early

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-17, 67.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

No excuses now. The Kangaroos are genuinely horrible, and while we’ve given them plenty of praise when they’ve deserved it this year – for the kids showing great signs, and for the near-misses in games they should’ve or could’ve won – they deserve scorn now. A scoreless quarter, against THIS West Coast team?! Whether this was poor coaching, poor execution or a mixture of both, now it’s time to be concerned about North Melbourne. Yes, it’s unfortunate Alastair Clarkson hasn’t had a year to develop this group. But you still have to be better than what we saw on Sunday.

Next game: Melbourne at Blundstone Arena, Sunday early