With just six rounds of the regular season left, the finals race is heating up.
The Panthers and Broncos are locked in for finals footy, while you can just about bank on the Storm, Raiders and Warriors also being there in September.
However, just four points separates the sixth placed Sharks and the 13th placed Dolphins, with the Cowboys, Eels, Rabbitohs, Knights, Sea Eagles and Roosters all competing for the three remaining top eight berths.
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Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s chances in not only making the eight, but also sealing a top four finish — and even winning the minor premiership.
It’s lights out for the Bulldogs, Dragons and Tigers, who have no chance of making finals this season but they’ll still be battling hard to avoid the wooden spoon.
Here are every teams chances of the minor premiership, top four and top eight.
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CURRENT LADDER
1. PANTHERS (32 points, +229)
Run home: Sharks (h), Storm (h), Sea Eagles (a), Titans (a), Eels (h), Cowboys (h)
Analysis: The Panthers are riding a four-game winning streak and trajecting towards a third minor premiership in four years. Star halfback Nathan Clear returned from a hamstring injury last week and looked right at home straight away. They host a desperate Sharks side this week with Izack Tago (leg) and Spencer Leniu (knee) no certainties to play. Clashes against the Storm, Eels and Cowboys will also test Penrith in a tough run home.
Injuries/suspensions: Spencer Leniu (knee, TBC), Izack Tago (leg, TBC), Preston Riki (ankle, Round 22), Taylan May (knee, season)
Chances of finishing 1st: 66.2%
Chances of making Top 4:98.6%
Chances of making Top 8: 100%
2. BRONCOS (32 points, +131)
Run home: Roosters (h), Cowboys (a), Eels (h), bye, Raiders (a), Storm (h)
Analysis: The Broncos proved there will be no late-season collapse in 2023 with a hard-fought win over the Rabbitohs last week. Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan returned and were superb and Kevin Walters will get back Thomas Flegler this week, but he’s without suspended duo Marty Taupau and Jesse Arthars. This week Brisbane hosts the Roosters – who finally bounced out of their slump last week – and victory will all but guarantee a top four finish for the Broncos as they still have one more bye up their sleeve in Round 25.
Injuries/suspensions: Jesse Arthars (suspension, Round 23), Jordan Riki (foot, Round 24-26), Corey Oates (knee, Round 26), Martin Taupau (suspended, Round 26)
1st: 26.9%
Top 4: 94.8%
Top 8: 100%
3. WARRIORS (28 points, +111)
Run home: Bye, Titans (a), Tigers (a), Sea Eagles (h), Dragons (h), Dolphins (a)
Analysis: The Warriors are flying and made it six wins in seven games with a thrilling golden point victory over the Raiders last week. They now have a soft run home and with the Panthers and Broncos still with some tricky games to come, the Kiwis have a realistic shot of winning the club’s second ever minor premiership. Warriors halfback Shaun Johnson has been wound back the clock this season and is firming as the Dally M Medal favourite. They have the bye this week.
Injuries: Jazz Tevaga (calf, Round 23), Marata Niukore (head knock, Round 23), Edward Kosi (knee, Round 25-26), Brayden Wiliame (leg, indefinite), Te Maire Martin (leg, indefinite), Ali Leiataua (hamstring, indefinite), Valingi Kepu (foot, season)
1st: 4.1%
Top 4: 82.1%
Top 8: 99.3%
4. STORM (28 points, +71)
Run home: Eels (h), Panthers (a), Raiders (h), Dragons (a), Titans (h), Broncos (a)
Analysis: Melbourne were stunned by Newcastle last week in a defeat coach Craig Bellamy said was one of the worst he had ever seen. The Storm haven come in and out of games this season but they’ll need close to an 80-minute performance to beat the Eels this week. Reimis Smith (adductor) and Tariq Sims (suspended) are both out this week. Bellamy’s men are in danger of missing the top four if they can’t start playing with more consistency.
Injuries/suspensions: Reimis Smith (adductor, TBC), Ryan Papenhuyzen (knee, indefinite), Eliesa Katoa (eye, indefinite), Aaron Pene (ankle, indefinite), Dean Ieremia (knee, season)
1st: 1.9%
Top 4: 45.6%
Top 8: 92.6%
Luai odd man out with roster squeeze? | 03:30
5. RAIDERS (28 points, -56)
Run home: Knights (h), Tigers (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h), Broncos (h), Sharks (a)
Analysis: The Raiders missed a golden opportunity to cement their top four spot against the Warriors in a one-point loss last week, which saw the New Zealand team jump them and the Storm into third. Canberra have the worst points differential of all the top four hopefuls and face three top eight sides and three bottom eight sides in their final six games. However, Corey Harawira-Naera is the only top 17 player injured and Ricky Stuart’s side can look to improve their points differential against the Knights and the Tigers in the next fortnight before a tough final month of games.
Injuries/suspensions: Harley Smith-Shields (finger, Round 22), Xavier Savage (hamstring, Round 26), Corey Harawira-Naera (seizure/medical, indefinite), Danny Levi (jaw, season), Elijah Anderson (knee, season)
1st: 0.5%
Top 4: 28%
Top 8: 86.7%
6. SHARKS (26 points, +98)
Run home: Panthers (a), Rabbitohs (a), Titans (h), Cowboys (a), Knights (a), Raiders (h)
Analysis: The Sharks missed a golden chance to cement their top four spot with a shock 30-26 loss to the Sea Eagles at home last week. Wade Graham and Braden Hamlin-Ulele are the major injury concerns, while Teig Wilton is out for the season in a big blow to their back row stocks. The biggest concern for the Sharks is Nicho Hynes’ form slump since Origin and their inability to beat top eight teams in 2023. The Sharks are in danger of dropping out of the top eight with a tough fortnight against the Panthers and Rabbitohs up next.
Injuries: Wade Graham (toe, TBC), Braden Hamlin-Uele (ribs, Round 22), Teig Wilton (knee, season), Kade Dykes (knee, season)
1st: 0.1%
Top 4: 12.6%
Top 8: 64.5%
7. COWBOYS (26 points, +57)
Run home: Titans (a), Broncos (h), bye, Sharks (h), Dolphins (a), Panthers (a)
Analysis: The Cowboys are the form team in the NRL having won their last six games in a row, including a convincing 24-16 win over the Eels in their last start to push them back into the top eight. Scott Drinkwater is arguably one of the form players in the NRL and Tom Dearden and Chad Townsend have rediscovered their form from 2022 of late. Jeremiah Nanai’s shoulder injury against the Eels is the biggest concern, but it could freshen him up for finals after a tough Origin period and if they can beat the Titans and the Broncos in the next fortnight, the top four could be in reach.
Injuries/suspensions: Griffin Neame (head knock, TBC), Kyle Feldt (hamstring, Round 22), Heilum Luki (facial fracture, Round 22), James Tamou (foot, Round 25-26), Jeremiah Nanai (shoulder, Round 26-27), Tom Chester (knee, season)
1st: 0.3%
Top 4: 20.4%
Top 8: 83.3%
8. EELS (24 points, +89)
Run home: Storm (a), Dragons (h), Broncos (a), Roosters (h), Panthers (a), bye
Analysis: The Eels will be kicking themselves for going down to the Cowboys who loom as one of their biggest roadblocks for nabbing a top eight spot. The injury to Shaun Lane is a massive blow after he only recently returned from a long-term lay-off, while the suspensions to Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Maika Sivo will test their depth. Brad Arthur’s side face a huge challenge against the Storm away, before they welcome back star five-eighth Dylan Brown from suspension in Round 23 against the Dragons. The Eels need to win at least four of their remaining five games, but provided they squeak into the finals, their final round bye could be a huge advantage.
Injuries/suspensions: Shaun Lane (elbow, TBC), Zac Cini (hand, TBC), Matt Doorey (ankle, TBC), Wiremu Greig (foot, Round 23), Dylan Brown (suspended, Round 23), Maika Sivo (suspended, Round 25), Reagan Campbell-Gillard (suspended, Round 25), Josh Hodgson (neck, season)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 5.3%
Top 8: 52.3%
DCE reflects on reaching 300 games | 01:08
9. RABBITOHS (24 points, +76)
Run home: Tigers (a), Sharks (h), Dragons (h), Knights (a), bye, Roosters (h)
Analysis: The Rabbitohs have just one injury on their books, but unfortunately it is their best player and they have barely won a game since Latrell Mitchell went down in camp before Origin I. Souths’ 36-20 loss to the Broncos saw them slip out of the top eight and their destiny is no longer solely in their own hands. Importantly Mitchell is back against the Tigers this week, which gives them a chance to get back in the winner’s circle and improve their points differential. In their favour Souths have just one clash against a top eight side in their final five games and a bye, but they need to start winning and fast if they want to play September footy.
Injuries: Latrell Mitchell (calf, Round 22)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 11.1%
Top 8: 70.1%
10. KNIGHTS (23 points, +50)
Run home: Raiders (a), Dolphins (a), Bulldogs (h), Rabbitohs (h), Sharks (h), Dragons (a)
Analysis: The Knights are on a three-game winning streak after upsetting the Storm 26-18 to keep their finals hopes well and truly alive. The fact they are on an uneven number of points due to a draw could work in their favour as they bid to nab the eighth finals spot and their points differential is healthy compared to some other teams in contention like the Raiders and Manly. Kalyn Ponga is in arguably the best form of his career at Newcastle and while ever he is on the park they are a chance of causing an upset. The injury to Daniel Saifiti will hurt the Knights’ forward stocks, but if they can beat the Raiders this weekend the draw opens up for them in the next fortnight.
Injuries: Daniel Saifiti (quad, Round 24), Krystian Mapapalangi (shoulder, indefinite), Bailey Hodgson (shoulder, season), Jayden Brailey (knee, season)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 1.2%
Top 8: 27.7%
11. SEA EAGLES (23 points, -31)
Run home: Dragons (a), Roosters (a), Panthers (h), Warriors (a), Bulldogs (a), Tigers (h)
Analysis: Manly kept their finals hopes alive with an upset of the Sharks 30-26 away, but they could have improved their points differential if they maintained the rage after leading 30-8. Apart from Tom Trbojevic, most of Manly’s top 17 are injury free and Josh Schuster and Daly Cherry-Evans’ scrumbase partnership is improving every week. Four of Manly’s final six games are against bottom eight sides starting with the Dragons this week, so if they can improve their points differential, their finals hopes can stay alive down to the wire and the fact they are on an uneven number due to a draw could work in their favour.
Injuries: Taniela Paseka (knee, TBC), Josh Aloiai (shoulder, TBC), Ben Trbojevic (hamstring, Round 23), Karl Lawton (calf, Round 23-24), Tom Trbojevic (pectoral, season)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 0.3%
Top 8: 12.3%
12. ROOSTERS (22 points, -88)
Run home: Broncos (a), Sea Eagles (h), Dolphins (h), Eels (a), Tigers (h), Rabbitohs (a)
Analysis: The Roosters were one of the favourites to win the premiership at the season’s start and boosted their slim finals chances with a solid victory over the Titans in Round 21, albeit conceding 18 unanswered points in the final 20 minutes. That win could spark a change of fortunes for Trent Robinson’s men but it is far from smooth sailing to end the season, coming up against the Broncos, Eels, Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles who were strong against the Sharks. However, the Roosters will have to win at least five of their last six games to scrape in to finals football and even still, results will have to go in their favour to close out the hotly-contested season.
Injuries: Victor Radley (hamstring, TBC), Naufahu Whyte (knee, TBC), Paul Momirovski (shoulder, Round 22), Connor Watson (knee, Round 22), Sam Walker (knee, indefinite), Sitili Tupouniua (neck, indefinite), Angus Crichton (knee, indefinite)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 0%
Top 8: 6.1%
RFM blindsided by shock release news | 02:13
13. DOLPHINS (22 points, -91)
Run home: Bulldogs (a), Knights (h), Roosters (a), Tigers (a), Cowboys (h), Warriors (h)
Analysis: The 17th franchise start to life in the NRL was a fairytale, but two key injuries have hurt Wayne Bennett’s Dolphins whose second-to-last victory came all the way back in Round 13 against the Dragons and their last against the Titans in Round 19. The Dolphins’ chances of making the top eight sat at 2.4 per cent last week and that figure has trimmed down to XXX. With both Jeremy Marshall-King and Tom Gilbert on the field, the Dolphins may have mounted a case to slot in to the top eight, but for now Wayne Bennett will have to wait till the 2024 season for his new side’s debut post-season campaign.
Injuries: Jeremy Marshall-King (shoulder, indefinite), Brenko Lee (leg, indefinite), Tom Gilbert (shoulder, season)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 0%
Top 8: 4.8%
14. TITANS (20 points, -52)
Run home: Cowboys (h), Warriors (h), Sharks (a), Panthers (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h)
Analysis: Too little too late against the Roosters in Round 21, scoring 18 points in the final 20 minutes which still wasn’t enough to secure victory. After having a 4.3 per cent chance of making the finals last week, that number has now been slashed all the way down to XX and it is back to the drawing board ahead of Des Hasler’s first campaign at the helm. What’s more important for the Gold Coast now is that they retain skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and gun backrower David Fifita with both players essentially free agents following the shock sacking of Justin Holbrook.
Injuries: Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (suspended, Round 24), Jaimin Jolliffe (hand, Round 25), Aaron Booth (knee, indefinite), Beau Fermor (knee, season)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 0%
Top 8: 0.3%
Werner cops two game ban for biting | 00:32
15. DRAGONS (16 points, -133)
Run home: Sea Eagles (h), Eels (a), Rabbitohs (a), Storm (h), Warriors (a), Knights (h)
Analysis: The Dragons hopes of making the finals are well and truly gone, but their chances of avoiding the wooden spoon were boosted after a solid win over the Tigers in Round 21. Ryan Carr’s side got the job done, despite Tyrell Sloan’s first half brain fade, scraping home 18-14. But now the Red V face a tough run home, with four teams in the top eight and two more vying for a finals football spot. Each and every team has something to play for, and the Dragons will also desperately attempt to avoid the prize no one wants to win.
Injuries: Ben Murdoch-Masila (knee, Round 23), Paul Turner (hip, Round 23), Viliami Fifita (knee, Round 23), Jayden Sullivan (hamstring, Round 26), Cody Ramsey (illness, next season), Jaydn Su’a (shoulder, next season), Tyrell Fuimaono (hip, indefinite)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 0%
Top 8: 0%
16. BULLDOGS (16 points, -262)
Run home: Dolphins (h), bye, Knights (a), Raiders (h), Sea Eagles (h), Titans (a)
Analysis: With a bye in their favour, the Bulldogs also have an edge of the Tigers in the race to avoid winning the wooden spoon. The Bulldogs also have a four point buffer on 17th place with the Tigers needing to come up with some big upsets to avoid finishing last for a consecutive year. Cameron Ciraldo’s side will be hoping to secure a handful of wins in their run home, starting with the Dolphins in Round 22. However, they face some tough tests against the Raiders and Sea Eagles, as well as a rejuvenated Knights outfit. With a host of players returning, including Viliame Kikau and Josh Addo-Carr, the Bulldogs will be expecting to win at least two games on their run home.
Injuries: Luke Thompson (foot, indefinite)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 0%
Top 8: 0%
17. TIGERS (12 points, -199)
Run home: Rabbitohs (h), Raiders (a), Warriors (h), Dolphins (h), Roosters (a), Sea Eagles (a)
Analysis: The Tigers are the current favourites to take home the wooden spoon which would see them win the unwanted prize two years running. The merger club were handed their first last placed finish in the history of the joint venture last season, and if they can’t salvage some wins to close out the year they will double their tally. Tim Sheens’ side also have a tough run home, facing three teams in the top eight in the next three weeks which could seal their fate. In a big boost, Luke Brooks returns in Round 22 alongside wingers Charlie Staines and David Nofoaluma with Junior Tupou shifting in to the centres. The Tigers have nothing to lose to close out their season, so we could see some upsets for the NRL’s most unstable club.
Injuries: Adam Doueihi (knee, next season)
1st: 0%
Top 4: 0%
Top 8: 0%
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