Pretender or contender: Form and health check on nine clubs scrambling for three AFL finals spots

Despite recent inconsistent form, the Bombers and Bulldogs appear finals bound.

Meanwhile, the AFL’s hottest team might’ve left its finals surge too late — and we’re not talking about Carlton.

Foxfooty.com.au analyses nine clubs scrambling for three spots at the bottom of the top eight, looking at their recent form, injury list and run home, plus the expert verdict on whether each club is a pretender or contender in 2023.

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6. ST KILDA (9-8, 104.3%)

Last five games: Lost to Richmond by 20 points, lost to Brisbane Lions by 28 points, defeated West Coast by 8 point, lost to Melbourne by 21 points, lost to Gold Coast by 26 points

The Run Home: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Geelong at Marvel Stadium, Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Injuries: Jack Billings (Thumb – Test), Jack Higgins (Knee – Test), Zaine Cordy (Concussion – TBC), Daniel McKenzie (Calf – TBC), Max King (Shoulder – 3-4 weeks), Tim Membrey (Knee – 3-4 weeks), Seb Ross (Hamstring – 4-5 weeks)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The Saints were in great form to start the year under Ross Lyon, but now look up against it in the race for a finals spot, despite sitting sixth heading into Round 19. They should win their next two matches against North Melbourne and Hawthorn, but their final four clashes are tough and, as Ross Lyon said after the loss to the Suns on the weekend, they don’t deserve to play finals with their current output. Like Brad Scott at Essendon, Lyon has pitched this year as one of discovery and it seems like he has a handle on what needs to happen this off-season and beyond. Competing in finals would be a good result, but not one Lyon has been at pains to emphasise. Either way, some changes are likely coming at season’s end. Likely to miss finals.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 11.85 wins, finishing 9th

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 103.5%)

Last five games: Lost to Port Adelaide by 22 points, defeated North Melbourne by 21 points, defeated Fremantle by 29 points, lost to Collingwood by 12 points, lost to Sydney by 2 points

The Run Home: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, GWS Giants at Mars Stadium, Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Injuries: Bailey Smith (illness – test), Mitch Hannan (calf – test), Lachie McNeil (concussion – 1-2 weeks), James O’Donnell (concussion – 1-2 weeks), Jason Johannisen (hamstring – 1-2 weeks), Liam Jones (forearm – 3-5 weeks), Sam Darcy (quad – 3-5 weeks), Tim O’Brien (hamstring – 4-6 weeks), Hayden Crozier (hamstring – 4-6 weeks), Dom Bedendo (groin – indefinite), Roarke Smith (foot – indefinite)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The Dogs remain one of the most frustrating teams in footy given their ability to destroy teams in the engine room, but then waste opportunities going forward and struggle to defend against ball movement. They were competitive but ultimately not good enough against Port Adelaide and Collingwood, while the loss to the Swans was one that got away. Liam Jones has been huge for the Dogs in defence, which makes his current absence due to injury all the more stinging. A very good remaining draw has them in the box seat for another finals berth, but a top four finish was made very difficult with the close loss to Sydney last week. Having Jones fit and firing for the finals will be key and the pre-finals bye could well prove a godsend. They should make finals.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 6th

8. ESSENDON (9-8, 101.2%)

Last five games: Defeated Carlton by 34 points, lost to Fremantle by 32 points, lost to Port Adelaide by 4 points, defeated Adelaide Crows by 18 points, lost to Geelong Cats by 77 points

The Run Home: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Collingwood at the MCG

Injuries: Jayden Laverde (Ankle – Test), James Stewart (Foot and personal – 1-2 weeks), Will Setterfield (Foot – 2 weeks), Zach Reid (Hamstring – 7-9 weeks), Dylan Shiel (Foot – TBC), Sam Draper (Hip – TBC), Jaiden Hunter (Back – Season), Harrison Jones (Ankle – Season), Jayden Davey (Knee – Season)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The Bombers have the second-easiest draw in the competition now that their loss to Geelong at GMHBA Stadium is out of the way. More impressive is the way in which the side is performing under Brad Scott, looking energised and clear on the path ahead after a tumultuous 2022 season and the changes it wrought. They have some injury concerns, but not much that affects their core best 22, barring the likes of Sam Draper. Essendon’s 2023 destiny is in its hands given the draw ahead, which is a great place to be considering where the side was placed this time last year.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 12.45 wins, finishing 7th

9. GWS GIANTS (9-8, 99.4%)

Last five games: Defeated North Melbourne by 28 points, defeated Fremantle by 70 points, defeated Melbourne by 2 points, defeated Hawthorn by 13 points, defeated Adelaide Crows by 14 points

The Run Home: Gold Coast Suns at Manuka Oval, Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium, Sydney Swans at Giants Stadium, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Essendon at Giants Stadium, Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Injuries: Finn Callaghan (Hip – Test), Tom Green (Hamstring – 2 Weeks), Lachlan Keeffe (Hamstring – 2 Weeks), Braydon Preuss (Back – 5 Weeks), Xavier O’Halloran (Thumb – 6 Weeks), Cooper Hamilton (Foot – TBC), Darcy Jones (Knee – Season), Adam Kennedy (Knee – Season)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: There’s a big, big sound charging towards the top eight. The Giants enter Round 19 as one of the form sides of the competition, winning their past five straight games under Adam Kingsley. With good availability, their finals hopes will come down to whether they can knock over tough opponents like the Western Bulldogs in Ballarat and Port Adelaide in Adelaide over the final six rounds. A clash with Carlton in the final round could be for a spot in the eight for either side, depending on results. We think it’ll be tough for them to make finals. Either way, the season has been a success under Kingsley, who came in amid a mini-reset of the club’s list and salary cap.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 11.65 wins, finishing 11th

10. CARLTON (8-8-1, 111.4%)

Last five games: Lost to Essendon by 34 points, defeated Gold Coast by 59 points, defeated Hawthorn by 60 points, defeated Fremantle by 53 points, defeated Port Adelaide by 50 points

The Run Home: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Collingwood at the MCG, St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne at the MCG, Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium, GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Injuries: Adam Cerra (hamstring – test), Zac Fisher (hamstring – test), Marc Pittonet (knee – test), Matt Owies (calf – 1-2 weeks), Jordan Boyd (suspension – Round 22), Harry McKay (knee – 6-8 weeks), Matt Kennedy (knee – TBC), Alex Mirkov (heart – season), Zac Williams (knee – season), Sam Philp (foot – season)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The Blues’ season was over … until it wasn’t. Four wins on the bounce and they’re now a genuine chance of playing finals. And for us, they will play finals, even though star Harry McKay won’t play again in the home and away season. Availability has been an issue for the Blues in years gone by, but they have almost a full compliment to choose from barring a couple of notable exceptions. Games against Collingwood and Melbourne will be fascinating given the Blues’ current form. They’ve worked their way back from the brink, now it’s about carrying that form on into the final six rounds.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 11.9 wins, finishing 8th

11. RICHMOND (8-8-1, 99.8%)

Last five games: Defeated Fremantle by 15 points, defeated St Kilda by 20 points, lost to Brisbane Lions by 81 points, defeated Sydney Swans by 13 points, defeated West Coast Eagles by 38 points

The Run Home: Hawthorn at the MCG, Melbourne at the MCG, Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, North Melbourne at the MCG, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Injuries: Seth Campbell (adductor – test), Toby Nankervis (suspension – Round 21), Jacob Bauer (hamstring – short-term), Jayden Short (hamstring – short-term), Josh Gibcus (hamstring – medium-term), Kaleb Smith (ankle – long-term), Tom Lynch (foot – long-term), Mate Colina (back – long-term)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The Tigers will be without Tom Lynch for the remainder of the season, which is a big blow given his importance to the side. Richmond has some winnable matches in its run home but also has difficult tasks in Melbourne at the MCG and Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. It’s an incredibly tight race for the top eight and the Tigers have been hit and miss for a fair portion of the season. Also impacting them is availability, with Lynch’s absence compounded by Jayden Short (hamstring) and Toby Nankervis (suspension) for at least the next two weeks and likely longer in the case of Short. Melbourne at the MCG without Nankervis and Short will be critical. They’ll probably miss out.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 11.7 wins, finishing 10th

12. ADELAIDE CROWS (8-9, 114.8%)

Last five games: Defeated West Coast Eagles by 122 points, lost to Collingwood by 2 points, defeated North Melbourne by 66 points, lost to Essendon by 18 points, lost to GWS Giants by 14 points

The Run Home: Melbourne at the MCG, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval, Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval, West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Injuries: Andrew McPherson (quad – 2 weeks), Josh Rachele (suspension – Round 21), Zac Taylor (foot – 2-4 weeks), Tom Doedee (knee – season)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The Crows have been very impressive under Matthew Nicks in 2023 and are unlucky not to be higher on the ladder given how tight some of their losses have been, with the two Collingwood matches in particular standing out. The reality is losses to Essendon and the Giants have really put a dent in their finals hopes. The positive is they have very good availability barring the season-ending injury to Tom Doedee and a two-match ban to Josh Rachele, who was out of form anyway. The issue is their final fixtures include Melbourne at the MCG and the Brisbane Lions at The Gabba. They’ve shown their good enough to win on the road, but the fact they’ve struggled to actually do it means it remains a big question mark heading into their final stretch.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 11.2 wins, finishing 12th

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (8-9, 94.6%)

Last five games: Lost to Carlton by 59 points, defeated Hawthorn by 67 points, lost to Collingwood by 78 points, lost to Port Adelaide by 33 points, defeated St Kilda by 26 points.

The Run Home: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval, Brisbane Lions at Heritage Bank Stadium, Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Sydney Swans at the SCG, Carlton at Heritage Bank Stadium, North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Injuries: Joel Jeffrey (foot – 4 weeks), Lachie Weller (knee – season)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The Suns did well in defeating St Kilda and who knows how much improvement they could show under Steven King in the final six matches of the season? They have only Joel Jeffrey and Lachie Weller on the injury list, so almost a full squad to pick from. There have been some disappointing performances from them this year, but the fact there’s a new coach now means a lot of that may not correlate to what we see over the next few weeks. The Giants at Manuka Oval looms large given the Giants’ form, as does a Q-Clash followed by a trip to Adelaide to face the Crows. Finals look beyond reach again.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 10.85 wins, finishing 13th

14. SYDNEY SWANS (7-9-1, 110.3%)

Last five games: Lost to Brisbane Lions by 16 points, defeated West Coast Eagles by 171 points, drew with Geelong Cats, lost to Richmond by 13 points, defeated Western Bulldogs by 2 points

The Run Home: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Essendon at Marvel Stadium, GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Gold Coast Suns at the SCG, Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Melbourne at the SCG

Injuries: Chad Warner (calf – test), Lewis Melican (hamstring – 3-4 weeks), Angus Sheldrick (syndesmosis – season), Cooper Vickery (foot – TBC), Jacob Konstanty (quad – 2 weeks), Paddy McCartin (concussion – season), Sam Reid (hamstring – season), Marc Sheather (foot – season)

Foxfooty.com.au analysis: The win over the Western Bulldogs was a big one in terms of the race for a finals spot, but the Swans might’ve left their run too late. Fremantle at Optus Stadium this week will be critical if they’re to have any hope of a late-season charge, but there are a number of daunting match-ups in the final six weeks. They’d want Chad Warner back as soon as possible given his importance in the midfield. They’ve been better in the back half of the season compared to the opening, hence the draw with Geelong and tight win over the Dogs.

Fox Footy’s The Run Home projection: 10.3 wins, finishing 14th