David Warner’s numbers don’t look great after a double failure at Headingley, but I think he will play in the fourth Ashes Test at Old Trafford simply because it’s too late to replace him with Marcus Harris.
The only other option would be to promote Mitch Marsh after his terrific century at Headingley or bring Cameron Green back into the side at the top of the order now he’s overcome a minor hamstring problem. But I think that’s asking a fair bit of middle-order players, particularly when we don’t know what the pitch will be like when the Test starts on Wednesday.
When Warner hit 66 and 25 at Lord’s, and had a couple of good opening partnerships with Usman Khawaja during the second Test, particularly on the first day, I had him penned in for the rest of the series. Headingley wasn’t great, out cheaply to Stuart Broad around the wicket a couple of times, but if the selectors were going to make a change, they should have made it by now.
The selectors have some important decisions to make regarding the all-rounders, given Marsh has just made a hundred and Green has been an important part of the side. It may be they decide not to play Todd Murphy, depending on what the pitch is like, but I can’t imagine Australia going into a Test without a spinner. They haven’t done that in England since 2009.
Australia will probably pick a 12 that includes Josh Hazlewood instead of Scott Boland, with both all-rounders and Murphy. They will likely wait until the morning of the game, like they have in the other Tests, before deciding who misses out. You would think they’d have to pick Hazlewood, who is fresh after a break, but they could leave him out and pick Marsh and Green alongside Pat Cummins, Mitch Starc and Murphy.
However, I much prefer an Australian side with Hazlewood in it. One good spell from him can win a Test. Both all-rounders have bowled pretty well at times, and it would bolster the batting, but I don’t like picking a side with that sort of balance. You have to pick a side with an aggressive mindset that is going to get 20 wickets.
Josh Hazlewood celebrates the prized scalp of England captain Ben Stokes at Lord’s.Credit: AP
Australia’s major problem has not been bowling but batting. Warner, Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith have one century and one 50 between them in 18 innings. Warner is averaging 23.5, Labuschagne 24 and Smith 31, despite being player of the match at Lord’s with a hundred that set up victory for Australia.
That’s been the issue for Australia so far. They just haven’t made enough runs, with England doing a good job of keeping them down. Labuschagne has got some starts. He’s made four scores over 20 but still hasn’t got a 50. The key at Old Trafford is for at least two of those to get a start and go on to make the sort of sizeable contribution that wins a Test match.
That will be made more challenging by the express pace of Mark Wood, who was player of the match at Headingley after wiping Australia’s tail out on the first day to finish with 5-34. Like many, I’m surprised he didn’t play earlier in the series, but there were obviously some fitness concerns. He proves that a little bit of extra pace makes a world of difference, not only because of the wickets he got, but he messed with the footwork of the Australians.
While Wood shapes as the X-factor for England in the final two Tests, they can’t be sentimental when they pick their side for Old Trafford. Jimmy Anderson running in from the Jimmy Anderson End one last time may be great for the veteran and his home crowd, but will he be the best option? Anderson has three wickets in two Tests at 75 this series.
Ollie Robinson will more than likely be ruled out by the back spasms that cut short his bowling at Headingley, but would England be better off choosing Josh Tongue, who made an impressive debut at Lord’s and has more pace?
The days when you pick an XI and stick with it are long gone. With shorter tours – this series is less than seven weeks – you’ve got to have more flexible thinking.
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