The impact of the pre-season bye would have two clubs — one particularly — nervous.
And why the Swans and Magpies’ Round 22 matchup could be telling in a concern for the black and white’s fairytale run ahead of two massive preliminary finals.
Here’s every club’s burning question ahead of the first week of the finals and commentators for every Fox Footy game in our ultimate weekly preview: The Blowtorch!
Watch every blockbuster AFL match this weekend Live & Ad-Break Free In-Play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
AFL FINALS WEEK THREE (All times AEST)
GEELONG CATS V BRISBANE LIONS
First Preliminary Final – Friday September 16, 7:50pm at the MCG
How to watch on Fox Footy: Channel 504 from 6.50pm, hosted by Garry Lyon with Nathan Buckley, Nick Riewoldt, Alastair Lynch, Kath Loughnan and Jon Ralph.
Cats’ burning question: Does pre-finals bye come back to haunt them?
Although clearly relevant for Sydney too, Geelong will be especially weary of the impact of the pre-finals bye with so much at stake — being the red-hot flag favourites going into the post-season that finished two games clear on top of the ladder. As highlighted on Fox Footy’s AFL 360, winning the qualifying final has actually turned into a disadvantage since the introduction of the pre-finals bye. From 2000-2015, 75 per cent of teams that won qualifying finals both went on to win the preliminary finals, and 0 per cent both lost the preliminary final. Then since the pre-finals bye was introduced from 2016, only 20 per cent of teams have gone on to both win the preliminary final, and 40 per cent have both lost the preliminary final. Of course, the Cats were also below their best form against Collingwood a fortnight ago and only just scraped to victory, and to add more pressure, are 1-5 in preliminary finals since 2011.
“We’ve had it (pre-finals bye) now for five seasons and only once have both teams that have won the qualifying final gone on to win the prelim — that is a disadvantage,” Saints great Leigh Montagna said on AFL 360.
“The two teams that are going to play one game in 27 days, they would want to get their training block right … you just hope they haven’t been caught on the backfoot because of this system.”
Asked if raining block or mentality is more important, Montagna said: “You’ve got to train for it, you’ve got to be prepared for it physically as well as mentally, you need the combination of both.”
Lions’ burning question: What version of Brisbane comes out?
It was a tale of two halves for Brisbane in its epic upset win over Melbourne last weekend. The Lions didn’t look up for the fight for the majority of the first half and appeared headed for another premature finals exit under Chris Fagan, trailing by as much as 28 points to the reigning premiers before half-time. That was until something clicked — and clicked big time, with the Lions turning up the heat in the second half to look a completely different side and run over the top in a comprehensive performance. It included Fagan’s side producing a 214 pressure rating in the second half — it’s highest in a half since 2020. But will that same rampant Lions team come out from the first bounce against Geelong this weekend? Or will it be the team that has struggled to deliver on the big stage previously,
“Their willingness to put their bodies on the line and really commit their bodies early in the game was poor. So to then to be able to come out post half-time and do what they did made it all the more incredible,” Saints champion Nick Riewoldt said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch of Brisbane’s performance against Melbourne.
“Let’s credit Chris Fagan for the turnaround, because it was all mental after half-time. They way they came out and responded and commit their bodies and applied defensive effort, it was huge. You just couldn’t see it coming.”
SYDNEY SWANS V COLLINGWOOD
Second Preliminary Final – Saturday September 17, 4:45pm at the SCG
How to watch on Fox Footy: Channel 504 from 3.45pm, hosted by Sarah Jones with Jason Dunstall, David King, Leigh Montagna, Dermott Brereton and Jon Ralph followed by Best on Ground
Swans’ burning question: Will they be ‘100 per cent’ ready for manic Magpies?
Sydney goes into this one as the rightful favourites after an ominous win over Melbourne a fortnight ago that continued its pulsating form in the back half of the season, and with the game being played at the SCG. But if there’s one team they wouldn’t want to come up against even five per cent below their best form, it’s Collingwood. We saw a fortnight ago how much the Magpies challenged, and nearly beat the top-of-the-table Cats, who weren’t at their best. And also factoring in the impact of the pre-finals bye, the Swans will want to ensure they’ve prepared as well as they possibly could’ve given Craig McRae’s plucky side will be full of confidence coming off arguably its two most impressive performance this season and looking primed to deliver its best shot. The Swans have been heralded for their defensive pressure all season and how well drilled they are across the ground, and could well face their biggest test yet in terms of the opposition that could diffuse those traits.
“(Collingwood is) instantly reaction, no lag. They’re doing something — they’re either running forward or bac — they’re the punishing Pies,” Roos legend David King said on AFL 360.
“If the Swans blink for a second, (Jack) Ginnivan gets goalside, (Brodie) Mihocek gets goalside. They try and outnumber you, all of a sudden you’re not set as a back six, you have to fly disorganised.
“If Sydney aren’t 100 per cent on — and this is the bye week we’re talking about, one game in 25 odd days. If they’re not 100 per cent ready to go, they’ll get whacked between the eyes.”
Magpies’ burning question: Have they met their match?
While the Swans will need to be at their best, Collingwood comes up arguably its worst matchup in competition. The Pies, who’re ranked second in the AFL in pressure, have been praised for their intense heat that forces turnovers and helps them score. But the Swans rank first in the competition in pressure and essentially beat the Magpies at their own game a few shorts week ago. McRae even admitted this week he “coached really poorly” in his side’s Round 22 loss to Sydney after “failing” to prepare them for the SCG in another key element. So will Collingwood have taken lessons away from the defeat — which ended its 11-game wining streak — or will the game again be played on the Swans’ terms?
“Their pressure game is what’s gotten them to this position. But the Pies are going to meet their match,” Montagna told AFL 360.
“Collingwood aren’t going to get this game on their terms. Last time they played it’s a really good reference point, it was only a few weeks ago. It was Collingwood’s second biggest differential (pressure) gap for the season.
“It was in particular in the front half of the ground (for Sydney) where we know Collingwood love to get their slingshot.
“Sydney do not allow it, they’ve trained for this and played this way now for the back half of the season. When there is a loose ball, watch them swarm. They were able to take and disarm Collingwood’s counter attack from half back.
“I think it’s going to be a real challenge for Collingwood to get that going again.”
