NRL finals week two previews: Expert analysis of the head-to-head match-ups

Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders, 7.50pm Friday, CommBank Stadium

All eyes on the Eels, who are trying to avoid a week two finals exit for the fourth straight year. They poured plenty into the qualifying final against the Panthers, but were overpowered in the final 25 minutes thanks to a Nathan Cleary masterclass. Mitchell Moses is on track to play after suffering a heavy concussion in that game.

The only change for Ricky Stuart’s Raiders is Ryan Sutton coming onto the bench for the injured Adam Elliott. Corey Harawira-Naera will now start at lock. The Green Machine have all the momentum after stunning the Storm in Melbourne, and arguably the world’s best forward in Joseph Tapine.

No teams in the NRL offload the ball more than the Eels and Raiders, meaning the smaller men could have a field day at the back end of each half. Parramatta have won four of their past five against Canberra – including a come-from-behind win earlier this year in the nation’s capital – but the Raiders won all five before that. Does it really matter? Maybe the answer is a pineapple. Raiders by 4.
Adam Pengilly

Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs, 8pm, Allianz Stadium

How do these two teams get back on an even keel after the highs and lows of last week? The Sharks waited 93 minutes to be sunk by a golden point winner from a favourite son, and the Rabbitohs emerged from an old-fashioned bash-up against their bitter rivals to advance to week two.

The last time they met it also went the distance, with Nicho Hynes kicking a match-winning field goal after normal time as Latrell Mitchell’s boot let him down with three fluffed attempts. But the NRL’s most magnetic player is waving a magic wand over South Sydney, and that is ominous for anyone on the other side of halfway. Coach Jason Demetriou will be without suspended prop Tom Burgess with Michael Chee Kam named on the bench, while Craig Fitzgibbon has named an unchanged team from the one that featured in the sapping qualifying final against the Cowboys.

The bookmakers can barely separate these teams, and who can blame them? Penrith await the winner in the grand final qualifier. Sharks by 2.
Adam Pengilly