As tough as Essendon’s after-the-siren loss to Port Adelaide was for Bomber fans, it sets up a compelling end to the season, with clubs in finals contention unable to make an error in the run home.
Of the teams aspiring to do more than simply make the finals, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions are well-placed, while those in the pack behind can take heart from the fact Sydney were only eighth after 15 games last season.
Tom Jonas, Nat Fyfe, Isaac Smith, Jack Gunston and Lance Franklin are among the veterans who all could possibly be in their final stretch of AFL games as season 2023 draws to a close.Credit: AFL Photos
Many decisions being made right now by those clubs on the future of veterans – such as Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe, Sydney’s Lance Franklin, Brisbane recruit Jack Gunston, Port skipper Tom Jonas and Geelong’s Isaac Smith – the use of players stars – such as the Western Bulldogs’ Aaron Naughton, Melbourne import Brodie Grundy and Collingwood wunderkind Nick Daicos – or whether to persist with youngsters – such as Demon Jacob van Rooyen or Lion Jaspa Fletcher – will affect the September fortunes of clubs.
They also make it difficult to predict how the remaining eight rounds of the season will fall, but it’s worth a try.
Our gazing into the crystal ball threw up just one change to the present top eight, with Geelong predicted to replace Essendon. If the Cats win their remaining home games that should give them the 12-13 wins that will likely be required for a finals spot. But, of course, a lot could change in two months.
It remains to be seen whether Collingwood will nurse superstar Nick Daicos in the run to finals or let him loose to cap a stellar second season in the AFL. Credit: AFL Photos / Getty Images
1. Collingwood
Current position: First, 13 wins, 2 losses, 52 points, 138.8%
Run home and predicted result: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium) W, Fremantle (MCG) W, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L, Carlton (MCG) W, Hawthorn (MCG) W, Geelong Cats (MCG) W, Brisbane Lions (Marvel Stadium) W, Essendon (MCG) W.
We say: Collingwood have just one game outside Melbourne – a blockbuster against Port Adelaide – and can afford to drop a match or two in the run home and still finish first or second. It’s all about managing players’ workloads from here for the Magpies.
Predicted finish: 1st, 20-3.
Dan Houston takes a selfie amid the Port celebrations after kicking a season defining goal after the siren.Credit: AFL Photos
2. Port Adelaide
Current position: Second, 13 wins, 2 losses, 52 points, 118.4%
Run home and predicted result: Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval) W, Carlton (Marvel Stadium) W, Collingwood (Adelaide Oval) W, Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) W, Geelong (GMHBA Stadium) L, GWS Giants (Adelaide) L, Fremantle (Optus Stadium) W, Richmond (Adelaide Oval) W.
We say: Five of their eight remaining games are at home and they win for fun at Marvel Stadium. This is not an easy draw, but Port are a good team, so expect them to win six of the final eight and finish top two.
That match-winning goal from Dan Houston was not only outstanding, but it will be vital at season’s end.
Predicted finish: 2nd, 19-4.
3. Brisbane Lions
Current position: Third, 11 wins, 4 losses, 44 points, 127.2%
Run home and predicted result: West Coast (Gabba) W, Melbourne (MCG) L, Geelong (Gabba) W, Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium) W, Fremantle (Optus Stadium) W, Adelaide (Gabba) W, Collingwood (Marvel Stadium) L, St Kilda (Gabba) W.
First-year Lion Will Ashcroft has been a dynamic addition to Brisbane’s midfield.Credit: Getty Images
We say: This team is primed for doing damage in September. Pencilled in for four wins at the Gabba and beating the Suns away. Only doubts are the Demons at the MCG and Collingwood in Melbourne, which they could lose. Should win 17 games and finish in the top four.
Predicted finish: 3rd, 17-6.
4. Melbourne
Current position: Fourth, 9 wins, 6 losses, 36 points, 126.9%
Greater Western Sydney’s Josh Kelly celebrates and Melbourne’s Angus Brayshaw laments as the Giants score an unexpected win at the weekend, which has loosened the Demons’ grip on their top-four position.Credit: AFL Photos
Run home and predicted result: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium) W, Brisbane Lions (MCG) W, Adelaide (MCG) L, Richmond(MCG) L, North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena) W, Carlton (MCG) W, Hawthorn (MCG) W, Sydney (SCG) W.
We say: Tricky but manageable run home with a win needed against the Saints to get them back on track and build some momentum into their season.
They need to kick straight and get the bounce Clayton Oliver’s return will provide. If they can escape with wins in the next fortnight they will finish top four. If they crumble, they could lose three of the next four and battle for that coveted spot.
Predicted finish: 4th, 15-8.
5. St Kilda
Current position: Fifth, 9 wins, 6 losses, 36 points, 109.3%
Run home and predicted result: Melbourne (Marvel Stadium) L, Gold Coast (Heritage Stadium) W, North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium) W, Hawthorn (Marvel Stadium) W, Carlton (Marvel Stadium) W, Richmond (Marvel Stadium) L, Geelong (Marvel Stadium) L, Brisbane Lions (Gabba) L.
Mitch Owens and Jack Sinclair celebrate a goal for the Saints in their hard-fought win over the Eagles.Credit: Getty Images
We say: If they’re good enough to produce five wins in the final eight matches, the Saints will finish comfortably inside the eight and face a tough elimination final. It all comes down to the Tigers game, which shapes as season-defining. The Saints will want to have their spot locked in before heading to the Gabba for the final round.
Predicted finish: 7th, 13-10.
6. Western Bulldogs
Current position: Sixth: 9 wins, 6 losses, 36 points, 105.2%
Run home and predicted result: Collingwood (Marvel Stadium) L, Sydney (SCG) W, Essendon (Marvel Stadium) W, GWS (Mars Stadium) W, Richmond (Marvel Stadium) W, Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium) W, West Coast (Marvel Stadium) W, Geelong (GMHBA) L.
We say: Up and down draw, but the draw certainly does them no favours with a final-round clash against the Cats at GMHBA Stadium and being forced to wait until round 23 for a crack at the Eagles. If they are a genuine top-four team, they will win six of their remaining eight matches and push ahead of the Saints to challenge Melbourne for a top-four spot.
Predicted finish: 5th, 15-8.
7. Adelaide
Current position: Seventh: 8 wins, 7 losses, 32 points, 119.6%
Run home and predicted result: Essendon (Marvel Stadium) L, GWS (Adelaide Oval) W, Melbourne (MCG) L, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L, Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval) W, Brisbane Lions (Gabba) L, Sydney (Adelaide Oval) W, West Coast (Optus Stadium) W.
We say: They can’t afford to stumble at home from here and might have to wait until the final-round match against West Coast to lock away a berth in the top eight. The Crows have a tough run home in what has been a difficult fixture all round, including two games this season against each of the top-three teams and a match against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium. They deserve a spot in the eight but will be made to earn it. A win against Essendon this week would give their finals prospects a huge boost.
Predicted finish: 8th, 12-11.
8. Essendon
Current position: Eighth, 8 wins, 7 losses, 52 points, 106.2%
Essendon players desperately try to spoil the after-the-siren kick by Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston and now find themselves in the crush for a spot in the top eight.Credit: Getty Images
Run home and predicted result: Adelaide (Marvel Stadium) W, Geelong (GMHBA) L, Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium) L, Sydney (Marvel Stadium) W, West Coast (Marvel) W, North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium) W, GWS (Giants Stadium) L, Collingwood (MCG) L.
We say: The after-the-siren loss at the weekend has put their top-eight spot at serious risk, with six of their eight remaining matches tough encounters. If they are to make finals it’s expected they’d need to win at least two of the games against Adelaide, the Giants and Sydney while also notching expected wins against the Kangaroos and West Coast. This week’s match against Adelaide is the biggest game of their season to date.
Predicted finish: 9th, 12-11.
9. Geelong
Current position: Ninth, 7 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw, 30 points, 113.5%
Run home and predicted result: North Melbourne (GMHBA) W, Essendon (GMHBA) W, Brisbane Lions (Gabba) L, Fremantle (GMHBA) W, Port Adelaide (GMHBA) W, Collingwood (MCG) L, St Kilda (Marvel Stadium) W, Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W.
Friday night’s draw between Geelong and Sydney has hampered the chances of both of last year’s grand finalists to make finals.Credit: Getty
We say: Geelong have a very tough run home and the draw against Sydney and earlier loss to the Giants will hurt. Expect them to win their next two matches before their finals virtually begin with victories needed from at least four of the remaining six games, or every home game. If they make it they will be a threat, but they are far from a guarantee to do so.
Predicted finish: 7th, 13-10.
10. GWS Giants
Current position: First, 7 wins, 8 losses, 28 points, 97.3%
Run home and predicted result: Hawthorn (Giants Stadium) W, Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L, Gold Coast (Manuka) W, Western Bulldogs (Mars Stadium) L, Sydney (Giants Stadium) W, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L, Essendon (Giants Stadium) W, Carlton (Marvel Stadium) L.
We say: On form they are a chance to win six games and make finals, but it is unlikely they will win more than half their remaining eight games. They would need to cause major upsets in their two games at Adelaide Oval to be in contention come the the final round. Their recent form shows they are building nicely.
Predicted finish: 14th, 10-13.
11. Fremantle
Current position: 11th, 7 wins, 8 losses, 28 points, 97.3%
Run home and predicted result: Carlton (Optus Stadium) W, Collingwood (MCG) L, Sydney Swans (Optus Stadium) W, Geelong (GMHBA) L, Brisbane Lions (Optus Stadium) L, West Coast (Optus Stadium) W, Port Adelaide (Optus Stadium) L, Hawthorn (MCG) W.
We say: Effectively blew their chances of a repeat finals tilt when they fell apart in the final quarter against the Western Bulldogs. They would need to cause a major upset against either the defending premier or one of the top three teams while making no errors along the way. That’s unlikely.
Predicted finish: 10th, 11-12.
12. Gold Coast
Current position: 12th, 7 wins, 8 losses, 28 points, 94.5%
Run home and predicted result: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L, St Kilda (Heritage Bank Stadium) W, GWS (Manuka Oval) L, Brisbane Lions (Gold Coast Stadium) L, Adelaide (Adelaide) L, Sydney (SCG) W, Carlton (Gold Coast Stadium) W, North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena) W.
We say: Four wins won’t be enough to make finals, so they need to cause upsets against the Crows at Adelaide Oval and the Giants at Manuka Oval by the first week of August to remain in the hunt. The Suns are playing like a team just outside the eight, which is about where they will finish.
Predicted finish: 11th, 11-12.
The Swans look to have left their run too late, particularly after inaccurate kicking left them with only two points from the game against geelong on Friday night.Credit: AFL Photos
13. Sydney
Current position: 13th, 6 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 26 points, 112.7%
Run home and predicted result: Richmond (MCG) W, Western Bulldogs (SCG) L, Fremantle (Optus Stadium) L, Essendon (Marvel Stadium) L, GWS (Giants Stadium) L, Gold Coast (SCG) W, Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L, Melbourne (SCG) L.
We say: Sydney kicked themselves out of a finals spot against Geelong on Thursday, but they are back in form and likely to cause problems for other contenders in the run home. We only have them winning two of their last six matches, but all those results could easily reverse and keep them in the hunt for longer. Lance Franklin’s final appearance on the MCG on Thursday night promises to be an occasion.
Predicted finish: 15th 8-14-1.
14. Carlton
Current position: 14th, 6 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 26 points, 103.4%
Run home and predicted result: Fremantle (Optus Stadium) W, Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium) L, West Coast (Marvel Stadium) W, Collingwood (MCG) L, St Kilda (Marvel Stadium) L, Melbourne (MCG) L, Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium) L, Giants (Marvel Stadium) W.
We say: The slightest of top-eight sniffs will be snuffed out when the Blues lose to Port Adelaide and Collingwood, making the final four matches a grind for a team that promised more than they delivered in 2023. They would need to win at least six of their final eight games and that is unlikely.
Predicted finish: 14th, 9-13-1.
Are Richmond stalwarts Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin preparing for their final games together in the closing rounds of 2023.Credit: Getty Images
15. Richmond
Current position: 15th, 6 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 26 points, 95.6%
Run home and predicted result: Sydney (MCG) L, West Coast (Optus Stadium) W, Hawthorn (MCG) W, Melbourne (MCG) L, Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium) L, St Kilda (Marvel Stadium) W, North Melbourne (MCG) W, Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L.
We say: Richmond will remain in the hunt for several weeks if they can beat Sydney at the MCG, which will see them needing to win three of the final five. That would require them upsetting two of the top six teams. They are capable and their draw is better than most above them.
Predicted finish: 13th, 10-12-1.
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