The opening half of the NRL season has produced the closest competition in more than four decades, with only six competition points separating first and 13th spots before this weekend’s round started.
More than a dozen teams remain in premiership contention at a time when upsets abound, the ladder is congested and blowouts are becoming less frequent. Only three wins separated first and 13th going into round 15, the closest it has been since 1982, which was the first season with more than 12 teams in the league.
The next tightest seasons were in 2008 and 2014, when four wins separated first and 13th on the ladder.
The 2023 season is also the second-most competitive in the NRL era (since 1998), based on winning margins, with a current average of 12.01. Already, 66 games have finished with a margin of between nought and 12 points, while 39 games have been decided by six points or fewer (the record is 40 in 2017).
“There were rule changes that were made by the [ARL] commission a few years ago and we’re seeing the benefit of all of the players, coaches and clubs adapting to that,” NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo said.
“The quality of the high-performance environment at all of the clubs and the athletes, they deserve credit as well. The salary cap obviously plays its part in ensuring talent equalisation, but the cap has been around for a while, so you can’t say that it’s solely that.
Mitchell Moses kicks a field goal to sink Penrith.Credit: Getty
“What’s pleasing is you’re seeing teams in the bottom half of the ladder last year move into the top half: we’ve got Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors performing really well.
“The fact the Dolphins are winning and performing so well is great, but it seems to have had a [positive effect] on the balance of the competition. It’s a range of things, and you have to acknowledge the contribution of everyone in the game to get to the point we are at now.”
While the competition is closer and more unpredictable, attacking football has also flourished. The average points per game this year is 43. In 2010, when the average points per game was 42, the average margin was 15. While the 2021 average was slightly higher (45), the margin was also higher (18).
“They are very entertaining, but also very engaging and closely fought matches,” Abdo said. “At the end of the day, any team can win and that’s what you want in the competition.”
The boast about any team winning on its day appears to be backed up by the data. This season the underdogs, as determined by bookmakers, have won 36.4 per cent of the time, a figure 6 percentage points higher than any other time in the past four seasons. The number of upsets, as determined by the bookies, was just under 25 per cent in 2020.
“I know there is only a top eight, but there would be at least 10 to 12 teams that would think they are a chance of winning it,” said Brad Arthur, coach of 13th-placed Parramatta.
“There is an attrition rate because of injuries and the depth of squads because of the salary cap. You only have to look at Penrith and Parramatta [who played in the 2022 grand final], they have both lost quality players because the cap spreads the talent around.
“If you get a couple of injuries here and there, it tests the depth of your squad, it can bring a few teams back to the field on different days.
“If you get a sin bin in a game, that’s also a factor. I think there have only been one or two teams that have won when they are a man down this year. That plays a big part; sin bins are costing you the game.
“There would be at least 10 to 12 teams that would think they are a chance of winning it.”
Parramatta Eels coach Brad Arthur
“To be honest, I don’t look at the ladder in any year. I know we are hovering down the bottom, but you string a couple of wins together and you’re not far off. It’s the same if you put a couple of losses together and you can drop. A couple of wins, you’re right back in it. It is close.”
Like the Eels, the Cowboys – who went within a handful of points of a place in last year’s grand final – have so far been unable to reproduce that form. Yet, despite languishing in 14th place, Phil Gould predicted on Channel Nine’s 100% Footy that they could still win the premiership.
“If the Cowboys can string four or five wins together, you’re going to have a very different reflection on them,” Gould said. “They went to the preliminary final last year; I’m expecting they’re going to be there at the back end of the year.”
Even the teams at the bottom of the NRL ladder have had moments in 2023. Last year’s wooden spooners, Wests Tigers, scored 66 points against the Cowboys last month, while the Cowboys racked up 45 points against the Storm last weekend. Sitting just above the Tigers on the ladder in 15th position, the Bulldogs have shown improvement under new coach Cameron Ciraldo and will remain in play-off contention if they upset the Eels on Monday.
Why the NRL has never been closer
- Since 1982 – the first season with more than 12 teams – this is the closest the competition has been between 1st and 13th.
- In 2023, 66 games so far have finished with a margin of 0-12 points (the highest since 1998) and 39 games finish within 0-6 points (highest is 2017 with 40).
This season the underdogs, as determined by bookmakers, have won 36.4 per cent of the time, a figure 6 percentage points higher than at any other time over the past four seasons.
- Games are close, but plenty of points are still being scored, with the average this year 43 points.
- The 2023 season is the second most competitive season since 1998 based on average winning margins, which currently sits at 12.01.
“I think we’re definitely heading in the right direction,” Canterbury playmaker Matt Burton said.
“It’s obviously disappointing, being ahead for the majority of the game [against the Roosters] and losing by one point. That’s disappointing and shows you how close this competition is.
“But, at the end of the day, we need to win those sorts of games because that’s the difference between the best sides.
“It’s a very wide open competition. There’s really not much difference between a lot of the sides at all and there’s a lot of teams all clumped together on the ladder. A couple of wins and you never know where you’re going to end up.”
It must be noted that the introduction of three bye rounds for each team could account for some of the data being slightly skewed. For instance, the Panthers are on top of the ladder with 20 points, having had two byes. The Broncos, meanwhile, are also on 20 competition points and are yet to have any byes, meaning they are second despite having earned two additional wins. So while there may only be six competition points between first and 13th, there is actually a difference of five wins between the second-placed Broncos (10 wins) and the 13th Gold Coast Titans (five wins).
Regardless, the introduction of the Dolphins has proven a success, despite a heavy loss on Friday night, and will bolster the belief at head office that further expansion is sustainable.
“Everyone was concerned about that when we went from 16 to 17 teams,” Abdo said. “This year has proven we do have the depth, we do have the quality. If you create the space, people step up. New heroes are discovered and the talent pathways we have in our game are doing the job.
“That’s not to say that there isn’t more that we should be doing, that there aren’t other ways we can improve participation and talent pathways, of course there are.
“We’re looking at lots of innovative ways on how we can accelerate talent development for both the men’s and women’s competition.
“We will continue to expand because expansion comes with the opportunity to win new fans and take the game to even more new markets. But it needs to be done sustainably and the commission is very aware of that.”
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