History shows the Knights’ Adam O’Brien and the Titans’ Justin Holbrook are coaching for their futures over the next month.
The sides have only won more games this season (five) than the Tigers and Dragons (three) – both of which have sacked their coaches in the past 12 months.
O’Brien and Holbrook took over their respective clubs ahead of the 2020 NRL season and while both initially improved, they’ve regressed over the past 18 months.
Newcastle currently sit 11th while the Gold Coast are 13th despite no shortage of superstars on their rosters, with Kalyn Ponga and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui among the best players in the NRL.
Watch every game of every round of the 2023 NRL Telstra Premiership Season LIVE on Kayo Sports. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
It’s why both coaches face a career-defining month, with three or four bad losses almost certain to seal their fate.
The Knights face the Broncos, Roosters and Penrith and Bulldogs, while the Titans are up against the Tigers, Broncos, Raiders and Dolphins.
O’Brien guided the Knights from 11th in 2019 to consecutive seventh-placed finishes in his first two seasons, but they failed to win a finals game and slumped back to 14th last year.
Holbrook took the Titans from the wooden spoon to 9th in his first 12 months and then clinched a drought-breaking finals berth in 2021, but the club slipped back to 13th last season.
Of current coaches who have been in charge since at least 2020, O’Brien’s winning record of 41% only sits above Holbrook’s 36%.
There have been 11 coaches sacked since 2019 and six of them had a better winning record when they were marched than Holbrook’s current tally.
But the most alarming statistic for Holbrooks is his side’s inability to close out games; they sit second in the competition for first-half points and last for second-half points.
NRL great Gorden Tallis works for the Titans which he described as a “loyal organisation”, but conceded those numbers are alarming.
“I think the roster is better than where we are at the moment, there is absolutely no doubt,” Tallis said.
“The fade away at the end, I can’t put my finger on it. They bought Kieran Foran for that situation, we were up 26 points against the Dolphins.
“That game you can win and even Kieran tried a short kick off, so there’s something they are trying to address.”
O’Brien isn’t faring much better on the winning front will be worried knowing Paul McGregor (52%), Paul Green (52%) and John Morris (47%) were all sacked with stronger records than his.
If the Knights lose to the Broncos and Roosters over the next fortnight then O’Brien will also fall below Stephen Kearney (40.5%).
Newcastle are also facing salary cap pressure which could see one of their best players, Tyson Frizell, squeezed out amid reports Ponga will earn $1.5 million next season.
It’s not just the draw mounting pressure on Holbrook and O’Brien, it’s also the Dragons dragging their feet on appointing their next coach.
St George Illawarra currently have their pick of the best available coaches and assistants, with premiership winners Shane Flanagan, Des Hasler and Michael Maguire all on the market.
If they still haven’t appointed someone in the next 10 days and the Knights or Titans cop back-to-back bad losses, it could see their boards pounce ahead of the Dragons.
“If the Dragons wait much longer there could be two more clubs looking for coaches in the next month and they’ll find themselves in a bidding war,” former Knights player Alex McKinnon wrote in his foxsports.com.au column this week.
Sharks back Hynes for Blues halves | 00:57
MORE NRL NEWS
MCKINNON: Why Dragons must make $1m call; Latrell mistake NSW can’t afford
‘OR ELSE HE GOES’: Frustrated Hunt’s Dragons ultimatum as rivals prepare bids
TIGERS: Sheens plots roster clean-out as $1m Brooks extension tabled
TEDESCO: The shock fullback call NSW must make as experts clash over criticism
“That’s why they must sign their next coach as soon as possible… When you appoint a coach, the second-most important thing is his staff and right now they’d have the pick of the best available assistants.”
It’s a sad state of affairs for the Knights and Titans, who have barely tasted any success over the past 15 years, but if their trajectories continue then both clubs will be appointing a third coach in five seasons.
Get all the latest NRL news, highlights and analysis delivered straight to your inbox with Fox Sports Sportmail. Sign up now!!
