AFL 2023: Power Rankings after Round 11, highlights, every club ranked, ladder, predictions, contenders, latest news

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

A dramatic Round 11 helped a few teams in particular, with everything going Collingwood’s way – and suddenly Fremantle’s surging into contention again.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. COLLINGWOOD (10-1, 133%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

A few times over the last few seasons, we’ve simply gotten to a point where a team has an inarguable case for a top two spot. Collingwood is at that point. Biggest upset of the year excepted, they’re going to head into the King’s Birthday game both 11-1 and favourites to be 12-1. And who exactly is going to come with them? The Power (9-2) have become the 2022 Magpies, winning a fifth close game and holding those nebulous concepts of momentum and togetherness – but we’re unconvinced they’re really at the Pies’ level, as seen in Round 2, and their percentage means they’re basically two games back. The Lions (8-3) just lost to a good but not top-four level Adelaide team. Melbourne (7-4) keeps losing. The Saints (7-4) and the Dogs (7-4) just lost to teams nobody expects to play finals. You’re saying two teams in that group are going to pass the Magpies on the final ladder? Right now, we can’t see it.

Next week: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Saturday twilight

2. BRISBANE LIONS (8-3, 124.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

Despite their disappointing loss to Adelaide, the Lions did enough in their seven-game winning streak to hold onto second spot in our rankings. And you could argue they did enough in the loss to Adelaide itself, too – from late in the second term to late in the third, they had 21 inside 50s to one, yet scored just 3.9 to the Crows’ 1.0. That was the game, and while they weren’t all great chances, they were still chances that went begging. But much like we don’t dock good teams too much for losing tight ones at the Gabba, we can’t dock the Lions too much for losing a tight one at Adelaide Oval, because the Crows are very good there this year. Chris Fagan’s men are still right in the top two hunt; and we’re getting real 2020 vibes seeing them fight for it with Port Adelaide.

Next week: Bye

3. PORT ADELAIDE (9-2, 111.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

They weren’t miles ahead of the Tigers on Sunday (though on expected score the win was quite a bit more comfortable), but that just speaks to how tight things are this season – an away trip to the team sitting 15th is still tricky. Either way the Power got another win (and another close one, at that), while most of their rivals for a top four spot didn’t, and they’re now two wins clear of fourth. Individual brilliance is still driving much of their success but when you’ve got guys like Butters, Rozee and Aliir doing what they can do, you can get away with that. Bank another win against the Hawks, get to 10-2 and be almost guaranteed of a finals spot – then it’s time for a few more tests. We’re not quite buying them on the Collingwood level in terms of contention, but every other time they’ve won eight games in a row they’ve made a preliminary final. Get to the final four and anything can happen.

Next week: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval, Saturday early

4. MELBOURNE (7-4, 133.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

Let’s put a positive spin on things. Impressively Saturday was the first time all year the Demons had kicked less than their expected score; the problem was they were well down, and the Dockers were well above theirs. That turned an expected scoreline of 84-66 Melbourne’s way into a real-life 79-72 win Fremantle’s way. So while it’s still a disappointing loss, and backs up the feeling we had coming into Round 11 of ‘why aren’t the Demons as good as they should be?’, we’re not too worried overall. They are still the incumbent for one of the top four spots, and thankfully for them pretty much all of the contenders to take their spot also lost on the weekend. And if they can put the pieces back together, they can still nab a top two spot; they wouldn’t want to lose two of their next three though. Carlton will be hungry this week, Collingwood is obviously scary a week later, and Geelong might finally be healthy when they meet at the Cattery in three weeks’ time.

Next week: Carlton at the MCG, Friday night

5. FREMANTLE (6-5, 102.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

Alright, we’re in. On a weekend where very few mid-table finals contenders showed anything, the Dockers went east and pulled off a big win over Melbourne at the MCG – for the second straight year. How fitting it could once again be the win that defines their return into finals contention. The midfield is firing but perhaps more importantly so is the attack; over the course of the season, they’ve only scored 32 fewer points than Adelaide, a team everyone (including us) perceives as an offensive juggernaut. They’ve already scored 100-plus points five times, their most since 2015, and even their 79 points against the Demons was an impressive total considering the opposition defence. Justin Longmuir (for the most part) stuck to his beliefs and it’s paying off; they can certainly make finals, and while top four will be pretty difficult, another home elimination final is well and truly in the mix.

Next week: Bye

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (7-4, 106.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

Just as we jump onto the Bulldogs bandwagon, it rolls over a big rock and knocks a few people off the sides; though their loss to the Suns wasn’t anywhere near as bad as some others on the weekend. It was a game heavily impacted by goalkicking, with the Dogs supposed to win 88-74 based on expected score, but instead losing 77-84 – a near four-goal swing. And, like many others, they were fortunate in that there were so many upsets that they didn’t lose much in terms of the finals race. They’re still only percentage out of the top four and get the Cats at a pretty good time, with a chance to firm up their place against a side directly competing for their spot in the eight. It’s one of their nine remaining games against the bottom 10, including very winnable meetings with the Kangaroos, Eagles, Hawks and Giants.

Next week: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, Saturday night

7. ADELAIDE CROWS (6-5, 108.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

Well, you could say the Crows are a tipsters’ nightmare, but on paper they’re actually pretty simple. They’ve won five games at Adelaide Oval, knocking off four current members of the top nine (Power, Lions, Saints, Dockers). And they’ve won just one game away, a narrow escape against the Hawks. Admittedly they were helped by Brisbane wasting chance after chance through the second and third quarters on Sunday evening, but facts are facts. So will the trend continue over their next six matches? You’d think so, because they’ve got home games against West Coast, North Melbourne and GWS to come, but away games against Gold Coast, Collingwood and Essendon – the latter group is trickier, regardless of location. But that six-week block should also determine their season. There’s a world in which the Crows win five of their next six, beating the Suns and Bombers, which would put them at 11-6 – where you’re almost certain to play finals, and right in the top four hunt. Or they’ll keep splitting their home and away games and remain fighting for one of the final spots in the eight. It’s in their hands.

Next week: Gold Coast Suns at TIO Stadium, Saturday night

8. GEELONG (5-6, 118.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

In a long-term view of this season, we still believe in Geelong. But they have shown nothing in recent weeks to suggest they can overcome the disadvantages that are compiling against their repeat premiership case. They’ve now lost three games in a row twice this year – having previously done it just once under Chris Scott, period – and they’re underdogs against the Bulldogs this Saturday night. As the reigning premier, they deserved a tricky fixture, but as it stands they only play three more games against the bottom 10 – and nine against the top eight. So they have to beat some genuine contenders if they’re going to even play finals, never mind storm into the top four. At their best they can do that, but when exactly are they going to be at their best again? With every week that passes, the charge becomes that much harder. As long as they get into September they’re going to be scary – nobody is going to want to face a 7th or 8th-placed Geelong in an elimination final – but it’s very, very, very hard to win it all from there.

Next week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday night

9. ST KILDA (7-4, 116.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

That was the loss a month-or-so of poor form deserved. The Saints snuck away from Giants Stadium with a win but couldn’t do the same against another bottom four team in Hawthorn, and the shine has certainly come off their stellar start to 2023. The best news they got all weekend was just how many upsets there were; theirs was arguably the worst (perhaps just behind Geelong’s) and could be costly with seven or eight teams below them still hoping to surpass them and knock them out of the finals places. Perhaps unsurprisingly for a Ross Lyon side their offence hasn’t been great, kicking 13 goals just once in the last seven games, but it’s the defence that has struggled the last few weeks. Conceding four goals in the final minutes to lose to the Hawks capped that off. They’re still in a solid ladder position, and they’ve got quite a few winnable games left, but they need to work some things out if they’re to avoid a second straight year with a post-bye fadeout.

Next week: Bye

10. GOLD COAST SUNS (5-6, 97.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

The Suns are nothing if not consistently inconsistent. Once again they’ve produced a stirring upset victory right after everyone started to count them out; and having now won three straight games in Darwin, maybe their deal to play games away from their true home ground isn’t so bad? Given how shaky Adelaide has been away from Adelaide Oval, there’s a very real possibility the Suns go unbeaten over their next month, which would entail beating the Crows, then defeating Carlton at the MCG and Hawthorn back on the glitter strip. Of course, just by declaring our optimism about the Suns winning those games, we’ve guaranteed they won’t. But by writing that, we’ve guaranteed they will! Oh god we’re caught in a mobius strip of jinxing and anti-jinxing aaaaaaaaahhhhhh

Next week: Adelaide Crows at TIO Stadium, Saturday night

11. ESSENDON (6-5, 107.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

Yes, for a second straight week, the Bombers fall a spot after a loss. Like last time, it’s more about what the teams around them did than what they did. But we’d also point out their 50-point win over West Coast wasn’t quite as convincing as it sounds – with the game not exactly in the balance at halftime, but not quite the blowout everyone expected either. Bombers coach Brad Scott pointed out as much in his press conference, though he put a positive spin on it, pointing to last year as the type of upset they can cop if they get complacent. And that’s fair. And, hey, in a round with a bunch of upsets at least they ensured everyone got a tip right – and they’re a step closer to a surprise finals berth. Put your hand up if you tipped the Bombers to have more wins after 11 rounds than both 2022 grand finalists?

Next week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday twilight

12. SYDNEY SWANS (5-6, 101.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

It sure doesn’t feel like the Swans should still be in the finals mix… but they are? Sitting a win and six percentage points out of eighth, a series of 50-50 games post-bye will determine whether John Longmire’s men can recover what looked unrecoverable. Can they win four of their next six, against the Saints (SCG), Lions (Gabba), Eagles (SCG), Cats (SCG), Tigers (MCG) and Bulldogs (SCG)? To us it sounds doable, if tricky. The bye comes at a pretty good time for them; the door is open for them to sneak into the eight. Let’s see if they can step through before it closes.

Next week: Bye

13. RICHMOND (3-7-1, 98.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

At some point you have to listen to what coaches are saying – even if it’s mostly just platitudes and cliches. But Damien Hardwick’s exit and Andrew McQualter’s post-match press conference suggested the same thing; this team just isn’t playing finals. Yeah, they’re still competitive against good teams. But they know the mountain is too high for them to climb from here, even if mathematically they’re still in the hunt (though they’d really need to beat GWS in a 50-50 game this Sunday). That’s fine; they’ve got plenty of champions to celebrate over the second half of the season, including hopefully Hardwick himself at a game. But even we, the Richmond Respecters, have to log off.

Next week: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Sunday early

14. GWS GIANTS (4-7, 87.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

In a year that’s otherwise purely about the future, Saturday’s win over Geelong in Geelong will be a true highlight for Giants fans. Of course, Giants fans may be used to it, given the orange team have won three straight down the highway. It was a fair reward for a team that has been consistently competitive all season (the Collingwood game excepted). In fact the Giants have played eight games decided by three goals and gone 4-4. That’s how normal teams behave, he says, glaring in the direction of the AIA Centre.

Next week: Richmond at Giants Stadium, Sunday early

15. CARLTON (4-6-1, 96.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

Do we really think the Blues are worse than the Giants? No. But does the incredibly depressing way the Blues’ season has slid out of control mean they don’t deserve any respect in these rankings? Absolutely. We could excuse their relatively uncompetitive losses to Brisbane, the Bulldogs and Collingwood, but to an injury-ravaged and out-of-form Sydney? With the exact same problems with game style, showing a lack of effort to fix what every Carlton fan knows is going wrong? They’re the most frustrating team in the league right now, and yes, maybe assuming they’d simply take a step forward after barely missing the eight last year was a mistake. But that doesn’t mean it was wrong to think that. All signs were pointing to growth from this group and if any fanbase has been starved of growth, it’s this one. With a tricky run home a finals berth is looking very unlikely – they can basically afford to lose four more games. So they have to win at least one of these: Melbourne at the MCG (twice), Fremantle away, Port Adelaide at Marvel, Collingwood at the MCG. Do you have any faith they can?

Next week: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday night

16. HAWTHORN (3-8, 76.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

At some point the footy world will stop being surprised by it, but the Hawks have a genuinely good young midfield emerging. And they powered the team to an impressive comeback upset over St Kilda, which certainly puts to bed any suggestions they’re as bad as the Kangaroos or Eagles right now. Though you COULD argue us writing about the three-way Harley Reid Cup a couple of weeks ago motivated the Hawks to prove us wrong, so really, we’re the real winners here.

Next week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday early

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-9, 66.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

Look, any week where the Kangaroos are avoiding a 50-point smashing is a good one given where they’re at. And they didn’t cop one against Collingwood, whereas West Coast did against Essendon. So let’s see how the Roos go in comparison on Sunday, but right now they’re the most 17th-out-of-18 team possible.

Next week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday twilight

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-10, 54.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

It’s funny how they looked quite a bit better once they got a few AFL-standard players back, hey? But Adam Simpson must be worried regardless… after all, the only guy with better job security than him in the state is leaving.

Next week: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Saturday twilight