Shed a tear, football fans.
The Premier League is almost over for another season, but before the final whistles blow across the country on the 38th game of the season, there’s still plenty of drama left.
The top four isn’t set it stone just yet.
There’s a three-way tussle for the sole Europa Conference League spot.
Oh, and there’s the small matter of the relegation scrap as Everton, Leicester City and Leeds fight to preserve their Premier League status for another season.
Foxsports.com.au breaks down all the scenarios ahead of the final day as supporters gear up for an off-season filled with excitement, frustration, dread or just about anything in-between.
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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
4th: Manchester United (69 pts, +11 GD)
5th: Liverpool (66 pts, +28 GD)
Given the cards Manchester United boss Erik Ten Hag has been dealt in his first season as a Premier League manager, a Champions League berth would be an outstanding achievement.
From two losses in the first two games of the season to the Cristiano Ronaldo circus that threatened to derail the campaign, the Dutchman has steadied the ship.
He’s also overseen Marcus Rashford’s stunning return to form, with the English forward bagging 16 goals so far this season.
As for Liverpool, it’s largely been a season to forget for the Reds.
Jurgen Klopp’s side dropped to tenth as recently as February this season as talk of the German boss’ ‘seventh season syndrome’ kicked into overdrive.
However, Liverpool have been on a tear since February 13 with 11 wins from 17 games.
That run included a 7-0 thrashing of bitter rivals Manchester United as well as a 6-1 battering of relegation-threatened Leeds, plus tidy wins over the likes of Newcastle and Spurs.
Unfortunately for Liverpool, they may have timed their run a hair too late.
How United qualifies for CL
Thankfully for the Red Devils they have two home games left to play this season, beginning with a clash against Chelsea before a final day fixture against Fulham.
They only need one point from the two games to lock in a spot in the top four.
Given United have not lost at home in the Premier League since the opening day of the season, it’s hard to see Ten Hag’s side slipping up.
How Liverpool qualifies for CL
The deck is certainly not in Liverpool’s favour.
The Reds have perhaps the easiest fixture of anyone on the final day as a trip to last-placed Southampton awaits and they must take three points from that contest.
However, they must rely on United losing to both Chelsea and Fulham at Old Trafford to even have a chance of qualifying.
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE
7th: Aston Villa (58 pts, +4 GD)
8th: Tottenham Hotspur (57 pts, +4 GD)
9th: Brentford (56 pts, +11 GD)
Who would have thought Aston Villa and Brentford would be competing for Europe this season?
As for Tottenham Hotspur, a spot in the Europa Conference League is the latest sign in the club’s sad demise in a season that began with such high hopes.
Villa are in pole position for the only ECL spot on offer in the Premier League and play Brighton, who have already qualified for the Europa League, at Villa Park on the final day.
Qualification for the ECL would be a remarkable achievement given Villa’s incredible turnaround overseen by Unai Emery since the Spaniard took over from Steven Gerrard in November.
Spurs had been in the Champions League or Europa League positions all season long but a run of just one win in their last seven has the London outfit on the brink of no European football at all next season.
The surprise pick in the bunch is Brentford, who have picked up 12 points from a possible 15 in their last five — including a 3-1 win against Spurs — to be within a shout of qualifying for Europe in just their second Premier League season.
However, the Bees will have to do it without star striker Ivan Toney who was hit with an eight-month suspension for breaching the FA’s betting rules.
How Aston Villa qualifies for ECL
An ECL appearance is in Villa’s hands given they currently hold 7th spot and a win against Brighton will seal the Midlands side’s first taste of European football since 2010.
Emery’s side can also qualify if they draw against Brighton and Spurs either lose or draw against Leeds as well as Brentford losing or drawing against Manchester City.
How Tottenham qualifies for ECL
Tottenham travel to face a Leeds side scrapping tooth and nail for their spot in the Premier League and based on the London outfit’s recent form, it doesn’t look good.
However, Ryan Mason’s side are still within a shout of playing European football next season.
First, a loss to Leeds eliminates all hope for a ECL spot.
A Spurs draw against Leeds plus an Aston Villa loss to Brighton along with a Brentford draw or loss against Manchester City would be enough given Villa’s goal difference would drop below Tottenham’s.
A win and a Villa draw or loss would also propel Spurs into seventh and secure a spot in the ECL too.
How Brentford qualifies for ECL
It’s unlikely, but with the form Brentford are in, a chance of playing in the ECL cannot be counted out just yet.
A lot would have to go in the Bees’ favour for them to dream of European nights next season.
They must beat Manchester City at the Brentford Community Stadium to even have a chance which is no easy task, although Brentford have already beaten the champions this season.
With Brentford’s superior goal difference, a win would be enough so long as Villa and Spurs both draw at a minimum, although the latter two losing their games makes the picture a lot clearer in the Bees’ favour.
RELEGATION
17th: Everton (33 pts, -24 GD)
18th: Leicester City (31 pts, -18 GD)
19th: Leeds United (31 pts, -27 GD)
It doesn’t seem right that either a team that’s never been relegated from the Premier League or a club that were champions of England only seven years ago could find themselves in the second tier next season.
But for Everton and Leicester City, it’s a frighteningly realistic scenario.
And, in a potential nightmare, both of those clubs could go down if they lose their games and Leeds United perform a last-day miracle and beat Tottenham Hotspur.
The Toffees had Yerry Mina to thank for a last-gasp equaliser against Wolves last weekend to give them a slight advantage in the fight for survival.
Leicester also held on for a 0-0 draw against high-flying Newcastle and what a valuable point that could turn out to be.
As for Leeds, a bright start against West Ham ended in diaster with a 3-1 loss that has certainly darkened the mood at Elland Road.
It’s all led to a last-day shootout for all three teams who are each scheduled to round out their season in front of their home fans.
How Everton survives relegation
Everton are in pole position when it comes to surviving relegation given they are already out of the bottom three.
A match against Bournemouth at Goodison Park is as good as it could be for Sean Dyche’s side given the Cherries have lost their last three since ensuring their survival.
If Everton beat Bournemouth, they will stay up regardless of Leicester and Leeds’ results.
Even if Dyche’s side lose or draw, they can also stay up if both Leicester and Leeds draw or lose their games.
How Leicester City survives relegation
Put simply, anything other than win for Leicester against West Ham United will condemn the Foxes to the Championship.
One factor in Leicester’s favour is their goal difference, which is the best of the bunch.
Dean Smith’s side must beat West Ham and hope Everton either lose or draw against Bournemouth in order to stay up.
How Leeds survives relegation
It’s never a good sign when you need not one, but two teams to do you a favour on the final day.
But that’s exactly what Leeds need if they are to stay in the Premier League for a fourth consecutive season.
Firstly, Leeds must cause an upset and beat Tottenham at Elland Road.
The Yorkshire outfit will then need Everton to lose, as a draw won’t be enough due to the Toffees’ superior goal difference.
Leicester must also lose or draw in order for Leeds to leap out of the bottom three.
