High scoring, immense pressure and close finishes. Will this weekend’s semi-finals reach the same heights? Here’s where Collingwood v Fremantle will be won and lost.
Jordan De Goey (third from left) celebrates a goal with Jack Crisp, Patrick Lipinski and Josh Daicos during Collingwood’s qualifying final defeat.Credit:AFL Photos
How does Collingwood win centre clearances in the absence of Taylor Adams?
It’ll be hard to replace someone of Adams’ calibre. The Pies, however, will back in their depth and will look to the likes of Jordan De Goey, Josh Daicos and Jack Crisp throughout the centre of the ground. They won’t be too concerned if they aren’t dominating the centre bounce clearances, as they’ll be hoping their pressure will be enough to quash the effectiveness of Fremantle’s stoppage work. Collingwood’s rucks Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron will have their hands full as they take on Sean Darcy. The Pies’ pair will look to get an advantage at centre bounces by using their athleticism to jump over Darcy and give first use to their midfielders. The last time these two teams met, the centre bounce clearance count was even, with the Pies running out 36-point winners. Given Fremantle’s strong stoppage game, if Collingwood can match them in that part of the game, it’ll set them up for a big win.
Collingwood’s Jordan De Goey and Nick Daicos and Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong shape as the main threats. Do either side apply a tag? If not, how do they quell their influence?
Brayshaw and Serong are a formidable force for the Dockers’ midfield. The young stars have had huge impacts in Fremantle’s wins this season and it’s their work rate, ball-winning ability and competitiveness that is setting them apart. In their win over the Dogs, the pair were the catalyst in turning the game around for the Dockers. The Pies are unlikely to run a tight tag on either, but Jack Crisp will be the player who’ll look to play more defensively at stoppages to limit the impact of both Brayshaw and Serong.
Fremantle star Caleb Serong will be key to his team’s hopes of advancing.Credit:AFL Photos
For Collingwood, De Goey will be hoping to continue where he left off in the loss to Geelong. Like most of the competition’s top midfielders, his impact is in the forward half of the ground. I don’t expect the Dockers to run a tight tag, but you may see Brayshaw or Serong take care of him in Fremantle’s back half and attempt to exploit him in transition. James Aish is the likely candidate to tag one of the Daicos brothers. I suspect Aish, who has had some defensive roles this season, takes on Josh Daicos, whose impact on the wing has been enormous. Fremantle’s small forwards will need to keep Nick accountable and limit his ball use, as this has been instrumental in creating Collingwood’s scoring chains.
How do Collingwood quell the intercept marking of Fremantle’s key defenders Luke Ryan, Brennan Cox and Alex Pearce?
This season, Fremantle are ranked second in scores against. Their team defence is as good as any and, with Alex Pearce finally fit, they have created a back unit which is making it difficult for opposition to score. This is aided by good defensive depth and the Dockers working together to support one another in the air and at ground level.
Collingwood’s ability to move the ball fast and direct will make it difficult for Fremantle’s defence to set up behind the football, so to get strong defensive shape behind the footy, they will be relying on pressure on the ball carrier for their intercept players to get to work. Jamie Elliott looms large for Pies, as he will make it difficult for Fremantle’s talls to impact aerially.
How will Fremantle find the balance between defending the corridor and kicking a winning score?
This has been the knock on Fremantle all season — their ability to kick winning scores — however they proved last week they can score quickly, after coming from behind to beat the Dogs in the elimination final. They’ll be put to the test this week, coming up against a team that has a more sound defensive system. Their ball movement often comes from their contested work, led by their young midfield group.
Optus Stadium has similar dimensions to that of the MCG, so Fremantle should feel comfortable with how they want to move the ball with their kick-mark game style. They tend to play less direct than their opponents, electing to kick towards the boundary rather than through the corridor and controlling the tempo. They try to protect the corridor and allow more space on the wings and flanks for their speedsters Michael Frederick, Lachie Schultz and Michael Walters to do what they do best. Rory Lobb will be a critical player for the Dockers. With Matt Taberner out, he is their one genuine tall forward and the Dockers will want to limit the impact of both Howe and Moore in the air.
How will the Dockers cope with a parochial Collingwood crowd at the MCG?
The Dockers have played in some big games over in the west and although it’s typically their fans screaming for them, a packed MCG full of Collingwood supporters shouldn’t intimidate them. That is, unless they were to get off to a poor start like they did against the Dogs, then they may find it difficult to claw their way back.
