The powerhouse, flawed favourite and dark horse: Where should AFL’s 20th team go?

Alright, it’s been hours since the newest AFL club was introduced. When’s the next one coming?

As league CEO Gill McLachlan explained in Wednesday’s press conference confirming Tasmania had been handed the 19th license, they may not be the new boys for long.

After confirming the Tassie side would begin play in 2028, McLachlan was asked whether a 20th club was on the cards.

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“The history of the AFL is we have had five or six years where we’ve had an uneven number of teams and have gone from 12 to now 19,” McLachlan said.

“There’s been a history of growth, there’s been some contraction but it will play out. What I am certain of is at some point there will be an even amount of teams, which will be for someone else to decide.

“I think the most likely (scenario) is it will go to 20 teams. At some point it will end up with an even number of teams.”

Sorry Gill, but first we have to play Mr Nerdy AFL Tables Fact Checker, because there have been 14 VFL-AFL seasons with an odd number of teams – though it was not always by choice.

The last was in 2011, when Gold Coast debuted a year before GWS, but the league grew to 18 clubs by 2012.

Between 1991-94 there were 15 teams, after Adelaide joined but before Fremantle came on board.

In the early 1900s VFL there were typically 10 teams with a few exceptions:

– in 1915, after the withdrawal of University;

– in 1919-24 following teams withdrawing through World War I, until the 1925 expansion which saw North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Footscray admitted from the VFA;

– in 1942-43, when Geelong withdrew due to wartime travel restrictions.

But clearly the more recent years impacted by expansion are most relevant here, and as we saw in the early 2010s, the league would prefer to keep the period between a 19th and 20th club being admitted as short as reasonably possible.

After all, going from 19 to 20 ensures a lucrative 10th game each weekend can be played, and means there are no awkward one-team-byes.

So when McLachlan says “at some point there will be an even amount of teams”, he could mean as soon as 2029 or 2030. It’s likely to depend on where the 20th team is placed.

If it’s a brand new market, like with Tassie, that could take a while (especially if there’s a bidding process and/or years of deliberation). If it’s an existing market, much of the infrastructure – and most importantly, a stadium – should be in place. That would speed up the process.

So while we’ve discussed the candidates to land the 20th AFL license before, let’s run through them in detail to see who’s most likely, and who just doesn’t make sense.

NORTHERN TERRITORY

Population (September 2022): 250,600 (up 0.4% on previous year)

Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 259,000 footy supporters across Tasmania and NT

Participation numbers (AFL NT/AFL Annual Report 2022): Over 39,000 players, 180 clubs in 13 leagues

For all of the talk about finally creating a national competition with the introduction of Tasmania, this is the lone void left on the map.

A Northern Territory team, perhaps splitting games between Darwin and Alice Springs, would be the spiritual favourite for almost every footy fan – and in an ideal world it’d easily be the call, giving greater representation to Indigenous Australia.

But we don’t live in an ideal world, and unfortunately the NT option is very flawed.

If the Tassie market was small, this one is minute. Darwin has roughly half the population of Geelong, with another 25,000-odd in Alice Springs. Not only does this mean there’s a lack of people to build a membership base, but sponsorship deals will be less lucrative.

Realistically an NT team would need heavy governmental support – the AFL could optimistically argue it needs federal funding because the team would be a social good for the region – in a way that not even Tasmania has, especially if the league again declares a new stadium is necessary.

An AFLNT report in 2021 found the team would run at a yearly loss of $15 million on an average operating cost of $45 million.

Then there’s the weather. In the depths of winter, Darwin averages 31 degrees with 36 per cent humidity – so day games will always be a difficult prospect. Alice Springs would likely need to be used for early-season matches given that period overlaps with the end of the Darwin rainy season.

Last May a proposal was put forward for a new $300 million, roofed 25,000-seat stadium in Darwin – though given the Tassie ground will cost over twice that, that would appear an optimistic projection.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA (Third team)

Population (September 2022): 2,805,000 (up 1.8% on previous year)

Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 1.004 million footy supporters, 13.5 per cent of which are AFL club members

Participation numbers (WAFC site/AFL Annual Report 2022): Almost 350,000 participants, 547 clubs in 57 leagues

Existing members (2022): 102,897 (West Coast), 56,105 (Fremantle)

SOUTH AUSTRALIA (Third team)

Population (September 2022): 1,828,700 (up 1.4% on previous year)

Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 792,000 footy supporters, 15 per cent of which are AFL club members

Participation numbers (AFL Annual Report 2022): 277 clubs in 33 leagues

Existing members (2022): 63,009 (Adelaide), 58,643 (Port Adelaide)

We’ve joined these two cases together because they’re essentially the same argument, but one is much stronger.

Adding a third club to a two-team market has its flaws, of course – would there really be enough fans to pick the new boys over the existing groups? But that’s where the specific location of the team will come into play.

For WA, the suggestion is Joondalup (north of Perth) or Mandurah (south) would be the best option, keeping the team central and able to play home games at Optus Stadium but still representative of a specific area.

In SA, the strong local connections with SANFL sides could see one of those clubs elevated to the national competition – Norwood was rumoured to be interested earlier this year.

But broadly speaking there’s a much stronger case for another team in the west. WA is more populous and wealthy, with enough footy interest to warrant waiting lists just to be members, while SA saw financial difficulties just a decade ago when Port Adelaide was at its lowest ebb.

Having a third team in WA also helps the league logistically. The 10th weekly game created by the 20th team’s inclusion could be part of a permanent Friday night double-header, with the Perth teams taking turns as host;

Even if not used in that way, having the extra game every fortnight in WA gives the AFL more options to take advantage of the time zone difference;

It also benefits the Eagles and Dockers, because they’ll likely play more games at home (assuming two derbies against the third team a year), while forcing the eastern teams to fly west more often.

And it takes advantage of Optus Stadium, a spectacular venue which could easily be used more often; it goes without saying you’d save plenty using an existing stadium rather than building a new one, or even renovating one, as some of the other 20th team options require.

The mayor of Joondalup, Albert Jacob told Ten News this week the area – with around half a million people – makes the most sense.

“If there’s to be a 20th license, WA makes a lot of sense, and if there’s a third team in WA, it should be in the northern corridor, and based at Joondalup,” he said.

“And most importantly from our point of view, we’ve invested heavily in HBF Arena (a multi-purpose venue including West Perth’s home ground) along with the state government, so we already have those purpose-made facilities.”

CANBERRA

Population (ACT, September 2022): 459,000 (up 1.4% on previous year)

Applicable Roy Morgan survey numbers (2018): 1.66 million footy supporters across New South Wales and ACT, 5.2 per cent of which are AFL club members

Participation numbers (AFL Annual Report 2022): 264 clubs in 23 leagues (NSW/ACT)

Existing members (2022): Over 6,400 (GWS Giants)

The dark horse option of the group has some good numbers behind it but also one big, big, orange problem.

The ACT is the biggest region in the country without its own team, almost doubling the population of Hobart – and you can connect it with nearby regional areas like the Riverina, which has a proud footy heritage.

There are plenty of footy fans, with Manuka Oval crowds typically larger for GWS games than what the club gets in its home of Sydney, while Canberra’s economy is also larger than Tasmania’s.

But the Giants are also the problem. Gillon McLachlan has previously said Canberra is their territory, with a 10-year, $28.5 million deal between the ACT and GWS signed just last year ensuring more home games there.

Giving Canberra its own team would then mean splintering the already small Giants fanbase, as well as taking away a source of their funding. Taking one step back with the AFL’s most troubled club – given Gold Coast is at least driving strong participation growth – to try and take one step forward may be less than ideal.

The AFL may also feel it’s already getting something out of the ACT market with the Giants, and doesn’t need to try and squeeze more out of the region when there are other options on the table.