Awful starts create brutal realities for ’22 finalists; are Cats fully back? Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Two of last year’s finalists are in deep holes that look very hard to escape, but the premiers have dug themselves out and look like they’re back.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. COLLINGWOOD (6-1, 117.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

Plenty has been said and written about the Magpies’ comeback abilities so we won’t waste time on that – we want to focus on who they’ve beaten instead of how they’ve beaten them. Because they’ve had a bloody tough fixture! Collingwood has beaten the teams currently 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 16th on the ladder (and Richmond, the team in 16th, is better than that position suggests). Obviously they’d make things easier on themselves if they could just lead at three-quarter-time for once; but if teams are going to keep doing the exact same thing and trying to bleed clock as soon as the fourth quarter stops, allowing the Pies to play their game and run over the top of them, then they don’t need the lead. Sydney should be easy pickings in their current state.

Next game: Sydney Swans at the MCG, Sunday afternoon

2. MELBOURNE (5-2, 143.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

We’re not entirely sure what we’re supposed to learn from a game like that for the Demons, though the bigger win the better for their percentage, and it was certainly good to see they didn’t have any surprise troubles. As we often say, good teams win but great teams win by a lot, and Simon Goodwin’s men have won four games by 50-plus points this year. While the Suns and Hawks should pose more of a threat over the next two weeks than the Kangaroos did, we’re not expecting the Dees to face any real difficulties until Round 10 in Adelaide against the Power.

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium, Saturday twilight

3. GEELONG (4-3, 135.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

Every contender for the third seed behind the Magpies and Melbourne remains flawed, but the Cats’ brilliance over the last month has to be respected. They look a far cry from the side that trailed Hawthorn at halftime on Easter Monday, becoming the first team to score 120-plus points in four consecutive games since Collingwood in 2010 (who, you may remember, won the flag). We still have some concerns about their defence but clearly the attack was working and, after some early-season wobbles, Patrick Dangerfield has been utterly brilliant. His 15 inside 50s on Sunday were one off the AFL record, and he did that from just 64 per cent game time. The Crows are another intriguing test this week – definitely a finals contender, but one they should dismiss given the game’s at home.

Next game: Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday afternoon

4. BRISBANE LIONS (5-2, 120.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

The Lions were supposed to win their last three games, over the Roos, Giants and Dockers, and did. Credit to them for it, but it’s time to take that next step from the team we knew they were – beating also-rans and winning well at the Gabba – so the team they could be. Carlton isn’t the most imposing threat possible but in a way they’re a perfect test of the Lions’ mettle. If they’re going to be any sort of legitimate top four threat, and win what may be multiple finals in Melbourne, they have to beat teams like the Blues down south. Even without Dayne Zorko and Daniel Rich through injury, Brisbane need to win; because a loss would just add to the pre-existing narrative about them being two completely different teams at home and away.

Next game: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Friday night

5. ST KILDA (5-2, 133.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

We’ve kept the Saints above the Power in the rankings, despite the obvious reaction some will have of “but Port Adelaide beat them!!!!!” because of our belief in what St Kilda are doing. And you’d have to suggest once they get Max King back, and really work out their forward line mix, they won’t have as many of the issues that plagued them last Friday night. Really, the biggest problem with the loss to Port Adelaide is how likely it now is St Kilda will repeat history. They’ve got North next, then Adelaide away, before GWS away and Hawthorn at Marvel. We reckon they’ll go 3-1 in that stretch – which’d mean they’re 8-3 at the bye. Just like last year. Surely it can’t happen again…

Next game: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday twilight

6. PORT ADELAIDE (5-2, 102.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

We’re not quite at the point of the season where we can point to a gap between a team’s percentage and their win-loss record as a reason not to believe in them. So let’s instead praise the Power, who produced a brilliant win last Friday night, going on the road – admittedly to a ground in Marvel Stadium which they seem to really enjoy – and upsetting the then-ladder leading Saints. They seem to be the first team that has really found a way to work out the Ross Lyon game style, which is a credit to Ken Hinkley’s coaching, and the players clearly love playing for him… which is a credit to Ken Hinkley’s coaching. It almost sounds like this guy who’s led the Power to two top-two finishes in the last four years might be an alright coach…

Next game: Essendon at Adelaide Oval, Sunday early

7. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-3, 114.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

It’s pretty simple – the Crows should’ve won. And it’s weird that goalkicking cost them the game against Collingwood because their efficiency was one of their great strengths over the opening six rounds. But when you go into three-quarter-time with 11 more scoring shots than Collingwood yet just a 16-point lead, that’s just not good enough. In a way this is a good thing; goalkicking (as we’ve seen from the variance from the Crows themselves) involves a heaping helping of luck. On expected score Adelaide deserved the win and they were certainly the better team for longer; perhaps this is just the rebound loss they needed after the somewhat fortunate comeback against Hawthorn (given how tight Darcy Fogarty’s game-winning shot on goal was). We still believe in this team as a finals contender.

Next game: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday afternoon

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (4-3, 96.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

Four wins from five – and the one loss was a tight one on the road in a team in their weight class. The Bulldogs have quietly revived their season and can continue on their merry way this weekend against their modern-day rivals GWS. Their below-par percentage shows they haven’t been overly impressive (other than in the Freo game) but there’s something to be said for just banking wins, because that’s what the ladder respects. And it’s keeping them ahead of teams like Sydney and Richmond, who we kinda think still have a higher ceiling but have fallen apart partially through injuries. Plus if they keep winning, they might finally get Bont the Brownlow his career deserves. (How has he played 200 games already?! God that made us feel so old…)

Next game: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval, Saturday night

9. ESSENDON (4-3, 111.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

It’s not often you see a team lose by five goals and come away impressed. But if you exclude the 38-point headstart the Bombers gifted to the Cats, they won the game on Sunday. Obviously that’s not quite how it works in reality but you know what we mean. After starting poorly, which they’ve done a few times this year, Brad Scott’s men got their game together and held up reasonably well. Recovering to score 100 points was a good sign too. At the very least we’re comfortable saying the Bombers aren’t going to fall apart and finish in the bottom six from here – they should be, at minimum, a mid-table side that’s on the fringe of the top eight race for most of the season. And that’s a pretty big leap forwards from what we expected. The impacts of coaching, hey?

Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Sunday early

10. CARLTON (4-2-1, 113.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

Good thing the Blues boosted their percentage so much against the Eagl-oh wait that doesn’t matter because of the draw. Anyway. Now Michael Voss’ men cop a brutal six-week run of games against contenders which could once again expose them – Brisbane at Marvel, Bulldogs at Marvel, Collingwood at the MCG, Sydney away, and finally Melbourne and Essendon at the MCG. With the injury list finally somewhat shorter, the Blues don’t have many excuses left – they simply need to win at least half of those games. They’ve got five matches against the bottom seven after the bye, so if they’re on seven or eight wins at the time of their Round 15 bye, they’re on track to play finals. But that won’t be easy.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium, Friday night

11. SYDNEY SWANS (3-4, 104.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

Always start with the good news, right? Well, the Swans should’ve beaten the Giants – on expected score, they did. But unfortunately their kicking… and their defence… and pretty much everything… let them down. And so here they fall, tumbling out of our top eight. That’s not quite as bad as it seems because as we keep saying every week, the AFL’s middle class is very even this year, and at their best any team in the top 11-ish can beat each other. But right now Sydney is nowhere near its best, and it’s not like their defensive personnel issues are going to be solved any time soon, with Dane Rampe and Paddy McCartin’s return dates unclear. As Nathan Buckley pointed out on On the Couch, the Swans had forward issues for two-thirds of last year, but they fixed it for the last third – and it powered them into a Grand Final. The Magpies don’t come at a good time, and so we’re expecting a loss, but the Swans absolutely must bounce back against Fremantle and North Melbourne in Rounds 9 and 10; then they’ve got Carlton ahead of the bye. If they’re 6-5 at the break, they should be OK. If they’re 5-6 they’re shaky but can recover. If they’re worse than that we’ll have to start wondering if they’re going to miss the eight.

Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Sunday afternoon

12. GOLD COAST SUNS (3-4, 90.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

We pretty much gave up on the Suns after Round 2. Then they beat Geelong. We gave up again after the loss to Fremantle in Gather Round. Since then they’ve won two in a row, including beating Richmond on the road this past Sunday. So what we’re saying is, if the Suns want to pay us to keep giving up on them, we are happy to do that deal and ensure they’ll never lose another game. While we’re still pretty confident in counting Stuart Dew’s men out of finals contention they’re at least keeping themselves mathematically in the conversation, especially if they can extend this run of form. They got close to beating Melbourne at home last season, you know…

Next game: Melbourne at Heritage Bank Stadium, Saturday twilight

13. RICHMOND (1-5-1, 87.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

We declared our continued belief in Richmond last week but it was shaken heavily by that awful Gold Coast loss – awful both because it was a game they simply had to win, and because of how horrid it was to watch. Their forward line is just a mess and while we agree with Damien Hardwick’s general point from his press conference, that their best is good enough but things just keep going wrong, the numbers are just starting to stack up against his side. With one and a half wins on the board, and 16 games left in the season, the Tigers need to go 11-5 from here at worst to play finals (because you’ll almost certainly need 12, if not 13 wins to make the eight). So they can afford five losses. And here are some of the games they have left – Geelong (MCG), Essendon (MCG), St Kilda (Marvel and MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Bulldogs (Marvel), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval). They have to win at least four of those. Good luck.

Next game: West Coast Eagles at the MCG, Saturday early

14. FREMANTLE (2-5, 84.2%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

At least the Dockers played a different game style on Saturday, clearly attempting to be more aggressive against Brisbane. Unfortunately for the third time in four weeks they kicked just 10 goals while an opponent kicked 17, and you don’t have to be a stats expert to know it’s hard to win doing that. It’s fair to say this Saturday night’s clash with the Hawks, and their better-than-you-think midfield, is must-win. Let’s run the same numbers game we did with Richmond. The Dockers need to go 11-5 to play finals (since you’re likely not making it with just 12). So they can afford five losses. Here are some of the games they have left – Sydney (SCG and OS), Geelong (OS and GMHBA), Melbourne (MCG), Bulldogs (Marvel), Collingwood (MCG), Brisbane (OS), Port Adelaide (OS). They have to win at least four of those. Good luck.

Next game: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, Saturday night

15. GWS GIANTS (3-4, 93.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

A two-point thriller over the Hawks, and now a one-point epic over the Swans – did the Giants steal the Magpies’ playbook in the pre-season? In fact all of GWS’ games this season have been reasonably competitive, though the 19-point loss to West Coast and 21-point loss to Brisbane weren’t quite as tight as their margins suggest. Still, Adam Kingsley’s men certainly haven’t been blown out yet, and they’ve gotten the reward in those two tight wins. It’s not doing great things for Kingsley’s blood pressure, though. Now match-winner Toby Greene leads them from their official biggest rivalry game into what might be their real biggest rivalry game against the Bulldogs. Could he conjure up something special again?

Next game: Western Bulldogs at Manuka Oval, Saturday night

16. HAWTHORN (1-6, 65.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

They’re only just above the Eagles on percentage, and the Kangaroos have another win, but the Hawks have shown over the last few weeks there’s a bit of a gap between themselves and our bottom two. Their midfield is genuinely doing quite well and performing well above expectation, beating the highly-fancied Bulldogs group in all the key stats heading into halftime as Sam Mitchell’s men threatened an upset. They eventually fell off, but that’s three solid showings in a row without a win as the reward. Could that win come this Saturday night against a less-than-impressive Freo? It’s not out of the realms of possibility.

Next game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Saturday night

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-5, 66.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

Next game: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday twilight

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-6, 64.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

Next game: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday early

We’ve grouped these teams together because they are, unfortunately, in very similar spots – having copped horrendous losses on Saturday night that were worse than most feared. Both have some positives, like the different game styles they’re trying out. You can see that Alastair Clarkson and Adam Simpson, both excellent coaches, are at least attempting to do different things with their groups. Unfortunately right now it’s not working. The Eagles’ injury run is obviously a factor in their awful form, and the Roos aren’t exactly peachy on that front either. It’s going to be a long year for these two.