Plea for ‘east, west, south and north’ team 20 move; did Dimma curse Tigers? Talking Pts

With the AFL set to confirm Tasmania as the 19th team in the coming days, all eyes are set to turn to a 20th. So where should it go?

Plus the Blues young gun “unlikely” to stay, the “rock bottom” Eagles and where the Saints must improve.

The big issues from Round 7 of the 2023 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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PLEA FOR ‘EAST, WEST, SOUTH AND NORTH’ TEAM 20 MOVE

As a society, we’re nothing if not impatient.

So even before the ink dries on a decision to hand Tasmania the 19th AFL license, the natural question in the footy world has been – where do we place team 20?

After all, it makes all the financial sense in the world to add a 20th club; it’d mean 10 games a weekend, rather than the awkward rolling bye scenario the NRL is currently enjoying with its 17-team format.

(Plus you could move to a 10-team finals system, so we return to half the league making the finals, perhaps with a 7 v 10 and 8 v 9 play-in round during what’s currently the bye week? Andrew Dillon, if you’re listening…)

And while some will argue that 20 teams will water down the talent pool too much, this argument has always seemed foolish on its face – after all Australia’s population when the 16-team AFL began was 18 million, and now with 18 teams it’s over 26 million. We can’t find two teams worth of footy players in that eight million?

Plus, the sudden success of mid-season draftees and pre-season supplemental signings – guys like Jai Newcombe, Marlion Pickett, and most recently Anthony Caminiti – shows there is talent outside of the AFL system that’s worth giving a game. So don’t listen to anyone who says 20 teams will dilute the competition too much; and their argument won’t stop it happening anyway.

But Tasmania made all the sense in the world as the 19th team – just big enough to be financially viable, and with the emotional argument that a heartland footy state deserved to be included in the national competition.

Will the same argument stand up to allow the Northern Territory to host the 20th team, though?

Certainly from an emotional perspective, the NT would be ideal. It could be a team that represents Indigenous Australia, helps give back to and grow the community, and means every state and territory is covered (if you include GWS as Canberra’s team).

“If it’s not necessarily predicated on population. Tassie and Northern Territory seems to make a little bit of sense, they’re at the polar ends (of the country),” Collingwood great and childhood Territorian Nathan Buckley said on Fox Footy last Friday night.

“It would rely on government funding, but we just saw, there’s a smattering of Territory talent in the league and it’s had as much influence as any state, I suppose. It would be logical for consideration.”

Asked how difficult it would be to keep players up north, Buckley quipped: “You’d have to ask James Sicily.

“Growing up in Darwin, you’re a long way away from where the action’s happening. But we are an Australian competition – it goes east, west, south, and then it could go north.”

The problem for the NT, though, is it has all of the same problems the Tassie case had – but worse.

The population is very small – around 250,000 as of September 2022, less than half of Tasmania’s 571,900, and effectively the same size as Hobart itself. Darwin itself has around 150,000 residents.

The smaller population also hurts it from a business perspective because there are fewer major sponsors available in the region, while it makes state/territory government funding for a stadium or the team itself more difficult to acquire because of the NT’s smaller budget.

However participation numbers, a strike against Tasmania, are less of an issue in the NT. In the 2018 AFL Annual report the NT actually had more people playing footy (48,815) than Tassie (44,707).

Federal government funding would be critical for an NT team, even moreso than with Tasmania and the $240 million for a new venue in Hobart – it’d probably require a strong annual contribution.

There are other regions of the country which have a stronger numbers-based argument to host the 20th team.

With Tasmania represented, the ACT is the biggest official region left untapped, with a population around 460,000 (almost double Hobart) – and with nearby areas plus the somewhat-close regions with a footy heritage like the Riverina, you’re getting up towards 600-700,000.

Canberra’s economy is larger than Tasmania’s despite being smaller, with the region having the highest median income in the country – so plenty of extra spending money.

Plus there’s footy interest there, with better crowds for Giants games in the capital than in their actual home city of Sydney. The 10,461 for Round 6’s GWS-Brisbane clash beat both Showgrounds fixtures this year so far, and last year Manuka Oval hosted the three largest crowds for a Giants home game.

Perhaps the Giants’ connection to Canberra would rule it out – Gill McLachlan said the city was “Giants territory” a few years ago – and the AFL may be happy just getting what it can from the ACT market with the Giants.

The other two realistic options would be third teams in Western Australia or South Australia, though all of the numbers lean WA’s way – more people, more money and more footy fans.

It’s worth remembering Port Adelaide was in something of a financial crisis just a decade ago, whereas West Coast and Fremantle, controlled by the WAFC, are wealthy and continue to draw strong crowds despite their poor performances (sixth and seventh for home attendance in 2023 heading into Round 6).

So a third WA team has the strongest financial case. With over a million fans in the state per the Roy Morgan reports, and long waiting lists for tickets and memberships, it would give West Aussies more chances to watch top-level footy – and in a way, help the Dockers and Eagles, because it would mean interstate teams have to fly west more often.

The difficulty is picking which team and/or where it’d be based. You could try elevating a WAFL team, and there have been arguments from government officials to place a team in Joondalup (north of Perth) or Mandurah (south).

Triple M’s Tom Browne reported late last week the early view was a team north of Perth was the “most likely location”.

There would be some difficulty convincing rusted-on Eagles or Dockers fans to support a third club, but that would be a matter of time. Plus the NRL’s Dolphins, entering the Broncos-backer fortress of Brisbane, have shown it’s certainly possible to pick off new members.

So there are options. And while the footy world would love for the NT to get the call-up, it’d be a massive financial risk – and we saw how long it took Tasmania to get ticked off given its situation.

DID DIMMA CURSE THE TIGERS?

The Curse of the Bambino. The Madden Cover Curse.

Can we add The Dimma Dome Curse to those ranks?

Almost two years ago Richmond was not happy with playing a home game at Marvel Stadium instead of the MCG, forced to travel the… *checks map*… three kilometres to the other side of Melbourne’s CBD.

Tigers CEO Brendon Gale said the move made “no sense” while, after the game – which drew 18,798 fans to the domed venue – Hardwick went even further.

“Mate, I hate coming here. I probably shouldn’t say that. The MCG has got soul, it’s got Richmond people there. Our people don’t come here. Plain and simple,” Hardwick said.

“I’d love them to come, but the fact of the matter is I can’t drive them all here.”

By “I probably shouldn’t say that” he meant in terms of the optics and the AFL getting upset with him. But maybe he was right – because maybe he created a curse.

Richmond is winless at Marvel Stadium since those comments, losing five games with a draw (against Fremantle – the Noah Cumberland play-on on the siren game).

And they weren’t exactly losses you would’ve expected either. The Tigers lost to Gold Coast and GWS there in 2021; to St Kilda and North Melbourne there in 2022; and now to Gold Coast again in 2023.

Perhaps this is just about mentality. Hardwick said the Tigers hate going to Marvel, and so they’ve started playing terribly there because the players are conscious of it?

It’s not as if they had a bad record there before the comments; they had won eight of their previous 11 matches at the venue. This is a genuine form drop-off.

The good news for Hardwick is the Tigers play their next four games, and eight of their next 12, at the MCG.

The bad news is they’ve got two Marvel games in a row, against the Bulldogs and Saints, in the final month of the season when they may be playing for a finals spot – if the Tigers can recover and get back in the race, that is.

Whether they’re cursed or not, with one win from the opening seven rounds, the Tigers have plenty of problems.

SNUBBED DE KONING ‘UNLIKELY’ TO BE AT CARLTON NEXT YEAR

Unsigned Blue Tom De Koning was left out of Carlton’s side for a second-straight week as it thrashed West Coast by 108 points in Perth.

And it’s only added to conjecture the young ruckman/key forward’s future beyond 2023 could be at another club.

According to AFL journalist Damian Barrett, it’s now “unlikely” De Koning will remain at Ikon Park amid interest from several rival teams, with St Kilda and Sydney having been linked to the 23-year old.

“It’s unlikely, the way I read it now, for him to be at Carlton next year,” Barrett said on Channel 9’s Sunday Footy Show.

After being managed in the Blues’ loss against St Kilda last week, De Koning returned via the VFL on the weekend but suffered concussion symptoms after falling heavily in a centre-bounce ruck contest.

It means he’s now likely to miss a third-straight senior game when Carlton comes up against Brisbane next Friday night at Marvel Stadium.

But even if didn’t sustain a concussion, it would’ve been hard to see De Koning coming back into a Blues team coming off its biggest win of the season, while Michael Voss on Friday said the young gun was “pretty clear on what he’s got to go back and work on”.

De Koning struggled to have an impact in his VFL outing against Footscray on Saturday too, finishing with one goal from seven touches, 13 hit-outs and two marks in a ruck-forward role.

There were some interested onlookers at ETU Stadium in Swans list boss Kinnear Beatson and St Kilda list manager Stephen Silvagni, who originally recruited him to Carlton.

Whether he’s out of favour at the Blues or not, clubs are clearly going to come hard at the young tall as one of the most intriguing players set to hit the market.

‘CAN’T WIN FINALS PLAYING SMALL BALL’: QUICKER SAINTS STAR RETURNS THE BETTER

It’s far from panic stations for St Kilda after only its second loss of the season. Having said that, the return of Max King can’t come quick enough.

St Kilda started Friday night’s game against the Power with a bang, kicking four of the first five goals to open up a 19-point lead late in the first quarter. But Port Adelaide gathered its composure to kick four consecutive majors and lead by seven points at half-time.

As the game progressed – and the Power eventually ran out seven-point winners – St Kilda’s structural issues and unhealthy forward 50 efficiency rate was exposed.

Mitch Owens and Jade Gresham were the Saints’ top goalkickers on the night with two apiece. They sit second and fourth respectively on the club’s 2023 goalkicking table, which sees Jack Higgins (14 goals) on top followed by Owens (12), Dan Butler (9) and Gresham (8).

Higgins, Butler and Gresham are all under 183cm, while Owens stands at 191cm but isn’t regarded as a true key forward – as talented and dynamic as he is. Tim Membrey (188cm), who’s only just come back into the side, falls into the same category as Owens.

SSP recruit Anthony Caminiti (196cm) kicked seven goals from his first five games before getting suspended. And clearly he’s not in the same talent class as King, who remains sidelined with a shoulder injury.

King is on the verge of returning to full training, with the star key forward in contention to return to the field in a couple of weeks.

And while the Saints won’t rush the 202cm star back into the senior side, he would solve a significant issue for them.

Melbourne champion Garry Lyon told Fox Footy the Saints “still aren’t structured up to the level you need to be if you’re going to be a top-four team”, while triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney declared “you can’t have your smalls being your leading goalkickers”.

“Unfortunately for St Kilda – and they’re playing this way because they have to and they don’t have the numbers down there – you can’t win finals playing small ball,” Mooney told Fox Footy Live.

“When you don’t have your big guys down there competing, this is why they desperately need King back in this side. Membrey, who I really enjoy watching play, he’s not your key forward.”

Mooney pointed out how Power utility Jeremy Finlayson took several intercept marks late in the last quarter, with “no one competing in the air” from St Kilda.

“If you go into a finals series and your leading goalkickers are your smalls, you’re not going to win,” Mooney said.

“We do know why they’re doing it – and that’s because of their injuries. They’ve been fantastic, but eventually it’s going to catch up with them. The quicker Kingy gets back, the better.”

When the Saints started their 2022 campaign 5-1, they were among the most efficient teams at converting an inside 50 into a score – a stat that ultimately backfired on them later in the season due to the lack of volume of entries. This year, their territory game has improved significantly, yet they’ve been among the bottom teams for efficiency inside 50.

Four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis said the Saints were “predictable” forward of centre on Friday night, telling Fox Footy: “They would just bomb it, they weren’t really composed. Because the pressure from Port Adelaide was so high, which forced them to keep dumping the ball, it didn’t play into the forwards’ hands.”

Saints coach Ross Lyon is certainly aware of the Saints’ inefficiency – and he’ll be hoping to get more bang for buck against North Melbourne next week.

“I mean you can complicate it, but our efficiency all year, even though we’ve been scoring quite well, we might have a quarter where we’re really efficient, it’s been a bit of an issue,” he said.

“Even though we’ve been in the top eight for attack, we’ve had lots of opportunities, but we’re down at the bottom end for inside 50s, for efficiency. Ultimately, that probably hurt us overall. I thought our last quarter was really good, we fought on. But to their credit, they brought a lot of heat, they’re a really good team.”

EAGLES AT ‘ROCK BOTTOM’ AS CALL ON ‘EXHAUSTED’ COACH LOOMS

West Coast have hit “rock bottom” on the back of their 108-point belting at the hands of Carlton on Saturday night.

With just 26 fit players to choose from, according to coach Adam Simpson, the once-powerful West Coast are a shell of their former selves.

The Eagles have won just three of their past 34 games – with a whopping average losing margin of 45 points.

And there’s no miracle fix coming for a club that were premiers in 2018 and finalists just two seasons ago.

“This is the unfortunate thing. They’ve got not a huge amount to go to in terms of their injury list, in terms of their list,” Matthew Pavlich told Fox Footy.

“It’s a hard spot for them to be in right now.

“We know the troubles they’ve had over the last two seasons, just three of their past eight matches they’ve won.”

Footy journalist Damien Barrett believes the Eagles have never “got over” their Covid attitude stemming from the 2020 hub.

“They can control their attitude in Covid and that I think that set the scene – back in 2020 even, 2021 there was an overhang, they got their form right until the last four games,” he said on The Sunday Footy Show.

“Last year they just never got over it.

“Now Jack Darling obviously taking himself out of the equation early didn’t help but they’ve never really got over that attitudinal shift.

“Second year for Adam Simpson was a grand final, three years after that he won a grand final so there’s leeway given, but that won’t extend in my eyes beyond this particular year.”

Speaking on Simpson’s future, Barrett said he couldn’t see the club making a call mid-season.

“I don’t see this club making a decision within this season on him. I think it does have to look at what does lie ahead,” he said.

“He is contracted for next year as well, as is the CEO in Trevor Nisbett.”

Matthew Lloyd said he thought Simpson looked “absolutely exhausted” at the helm of a club firmly entrenched in a rebuild.

“I think West Coast let Johnny Worsfold go for too long and he looked a very tired guy by the end of it,” he said on The Sunday Footy Show.

“I think Adam Simpson looks absolutely exhausted and maybe a fresh voice might be what the football club needs.”

Fox Footy’s Garry Lyon said West Coast had no option but to commit to the draft given they didn’t have trade-value players in its mix.

When asked directly how many 30-plus year old players West Coast could currently get a top 20 pick in exchange for (including the likes of Jeremy McGovern, Elliot Yeo and Jack Darling), Lyon was bold in his assessment.

“None of them,” he said.

“They wouldn’t go. I’ve heard people throw their names up the whole time. Do you think Jeremy McGovern would leave what he’s got? His brewery and his boats and everything else and $1.2 million. You reckon he’s leaving? They are not going from the west. They go, ‘nah we’ll stay right here and play out my time and then I’ll retire’.

“They’ll go to the draft like every other team finishing down the bottom.”

Speaking after the humiliating loss to Carlton, Simpson said his side was “clearly undermanned”.

“We can’t train at the moment – we’ve got 26 training,” he said.

“We can’t do anything outside of some fundamentals. We’re working on our running.

“It’s not an excuse. We’ve been dealing with this for a long time.

“(The list crisis) that’s on us – we’ve been knocked around a bit the last couple of years. We own that. That’s the way it is. We’ll keep working through it. We’re not asking (the AFL) for anything.

“Obviously there’s not much we can lean on.

“It’s just where we’re at – we’ve got 17 players unavailable at the moment.”