A quarterback had gone first overall in each of the last four drafts heading into last year. But 2022 was different — and not in a good way.
Instead of fighting it out at the top, the real question was which team would be the first to reach for a quarterback. It ended up being Pittsburgh, who took Kenny Pickett 20th overall.
Pickett would end up being the only quarterback selected in the first two rounds, something that had only happened another two times in the past 30 years.
History could be made again in this year’s draft but for very different reasons, with the distinct possibility that quarterbacks are taken with the first four overall picks.
Week 17
MORE 2023 NFL DRAFT COVERAGE ‘CAN DO IT ALL’: Inside the mind of Aussie record-breaking ‘unicorn’ ‘IT SCARES YOU’: Worrying truth behind NFL’s draft dark horse Hendon Hooker ‘TELLING FAMILY’: NFL Draft twist after plunge on 50-1 prospect to go No.1 It would be the first time ever that has happened in a draft, speaking both to the quality of this year’s crop and just how desperately some teams need to hit the reset button. There are few guarantees on draft night but you can pretty much lock in the Carolina Panthers (No.1) and Indianapolis Colts (No.4) to select quarterbacks. In second spot it was widely expected the Houston Texans, who currently have Davis Mills as their first-choice option, would also be drafting their future franchise quarterback. But it is increasingly looking like the Texans may actually either trade back or draft standout edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. As for the Arizona Cardinals, who hold the third overall pick, they already have a long-term quarterback (for now) in the albeit injured Kyler Murray. They are fielding calls from quarterback-needy teams like the Raiders and Titans while even the Colts could trade up if they feel like their preferred prospect could get taken before No.4. Of course there is also the possibility that Arizona stays put and drafts at another position but still there is also a chance that draft history is made on Friday morning [AEST]. With that in mind, foxsports.com.au profiledthe top-four quarterback prospects in this year’s draft along with their strengths, weaknesses and potential draft destinations. There are also a handful of key numbers to know about each prospect, with thanks to The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and his in-depth 300-page guide to this year’s NFL draft. BRYCE YOUNG (Alabama) Background College: Alabama Class: Junior Age: 21 Height: 5-foot-10 (178 centimetres) Weight: 204 lbs (92 kilograms) Strengths If there is one thing in particular that Young does well, it is adapting under pressure. The 2021 Heisman winner led the Football Bowl Subdivision in the past two seasons with 17 passing touchdowns on plays when he was blitzed and pressured. Not only does Young use his athletic ability to create inside and outside the pocket, he also keeps his eyes downfield throughout plays, allowing him to then find open teammates. Young grew up watching Golden State Warriors superstar Steph Curry while also undergoing extensive basketball training and it shows, with Alabama head coach Nick Saban likening him to a “point guard” on the football field. “This guy plays quarterback like a point guard in basketball,” Saban said on Stephen A. Smith’s ‘Know Mercy Podcast’. “He’s got eyes all over. He knows where everybody is. He can extend plays. He creates throwing lanes for himself, which is important for a guy at his size. He can make all the throws. “He’s smart. So, he has a lot of the attributes — from a psychological disposition standpoint — that are necessary to excel at this position.” It’s not just Young’s ability with the ball in hand either, with the 21-year-old described as intelligent and a leader with all the personality traits to be a franchise quarterback. Weaknesses Of course, the biggest question mark hanging over Young heading into the draft is his size. The 21-year-old measured in at five feet 10 1/8 inches tall and 204 pounds at this year’s Combine, although Young is expected to be playing at a weight closer to 194 pounds. Young’s size casts question marks over his durability and hence long-term sustainability, particularly if playing behind a team with a weakened offensive line. Young also has 12 career fumbles to his name, something which both speaks to his willingness to invite chaos and the potential consequences that come from it. Then there is the matter of his size and how it will impact and limit his scheme fit in the NFL, with one solution involving allowing Young to take a deeper drop. If you watch Young’s tape from his college football, you’ll quickly notice that he often bounces up on his tippy-toes to compensate for the height disadvantage. That though in turn limits his ability to fire strong passes in the middle of the field and also at times requires him to arc the ball more than the standard quarterback. For what it’s worth, Young is not too fussed by the focus on his size as it’s something he’s had to deal with — and overcome — his entire playing career. “I’ve been this size, respectfully, my whole life,” Young said at the Combine. “I know who I am, I know what I can do. For me, it’s fair. Everyone can speculate, ask me every question. I’m going to continue to control what I can control, continue to keep working my hardest. I’m confident in myself. I know what I can do.” Possible draft destinations Young had been linked to the Houston Texans, who have the second overall pick, but more recently it appears he will be heading to Carolina. The Alabama prospect cancelled all of his remaining pre-draft visits last week, suggesting the Panthers have promised they will select Young with the first overall pick on Friday. Carolina traded wide receiver DJ Moore and a haul of picks to move up to top spot and ESPN draft expert Todd McShay believes the Panthers are the “perfect” landing spot. “I think Frank Reich is going to do a good job of bringing in Bryce Young and kind of tailoring things to what he wants to do,” McShay said on ‘NFL Live’. “This is a perfect place for him and I think Bryce Young, he’s Houdini to me, even when he’s not playing in structure — which he can play very well in — he creates after the initial play breaks down. “He’ll go through the progression reads — one, two, three — and then his ability to stress the defence, teasing them almost at times, ‘I’m going to run the football, rolling out to the right, I’m climbing the pocket…’, and then at the very last second he sees things that most young quarterbacks don’t see. “His ability to get rid of the ball in the last second before he takes a hit is what makes him special.” Numbers to know – Had 79 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions for more than 8,000 yards in his final two seasons with Alabama. – Led the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) with 17 passing touchdowns on plays he was blitzed and pressured in past two seasons. – Had 115 completions of 20-plus yards from the shotgun formation over the last two seasons at Alabama — the most in the FBS. What the experts are saying The Athletic’s Dane Brugler:Young is a size outlier (he will be the smallest quarterback in the NFL the moment he is drafted) with average arm power, but he is a natural passer with an instinctive feel for throw location and play extension. Despite limited physical traits, he has the high-end intangibles and talent required to be an impact starter. The Ringer’s Danny Kelly:Young is a natural playmaker at the quarterback position, possessing excellent field vision, an accurate arm, and an extraordinary talent for keeping plays alive out of structure. The big question teams will have—and this is really the biggest question of the entire draft—is how much his lack of size will hold him back at the next level. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah:Young was an ultra-productive passer for Alabama. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner has quick feet in his setup and effectively marries his eyes and feet. He remains on balance and delivers the ball accurately to all three levels… His lack of height isn’t a major issue, but his narrow frame raises concerns about his durability at the next level. C.J. STROUD (Ohio State) Background College: Ohio State Class: R-Sophomore Age: 21 Height: 6-foot-3 (191 centimetres) Weight: 214 lbs (97 kilograms) Strengths If a team is looking for the most NFL-ready quarterback prospect in this year’s draft, Stroud is that guy. As the most pure pocket passer of the class, Stroud is a suitable option for any team regardless of whether they are rebuilding or a contender with a veteran nearing the end of their career. In other words, someone like Young may be the best pick but Stroud is the safe pick. You know what you’re getting with Stroud and what he will look like in the NFL. The two-time Heisman Trophy finalist has a good touch on all three levels and what is particularly impressive is his ability to play with anticipation, not just finding open receivers but throwing those receivers open. Stroud led the FBS with 45 touchdowns on passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield over the past two seasons, further highlighting his outstanding deep-ball accuracy. Weaknesses While Stroud may be the safest quarterback option in this year’s draft, his ceiling is capped at this point until he proves he can find a ‘Plan B’ when the defence catches onto him. That starts with Stroud’s mobility and creativity. Now the 21-year-old isn’t a statue in the pocket, he is definitely capable of using his feet to extend plays. You only have to look at Stroud’s performance against Georgia in the Peach Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal, where he threw four touchdown passes to no interceptions. It was Stroud’s mobility though that really got people talking as he ran 12 times for 34 yards, including one 27-yard scramble, to constantly avoid pressure from Georgia’s defensive line. Stroud doesn’t have the athleticism that Richardson or even Young have and so it’s unfair to expect him to showcase a rushing ability even close to that of the pair. Stroud just needs to prove he can also play outside of structure more and draw on that escapability that he flashed in the loss to Georgia. Possible draft destinations If the Panthers are off the table, naturally the Texans with the second overall pick shape as the logical landing spot for Stroud. After all, Houston needs a franchise quarterback and at least Stroud gives them a guaranteed long-term starter, even if the ceiling isn’t sky-high like that of Richardson. But there are suggestions the Texans could actually trade down or even stay put and still pass on a quarterback, instead taking someone like Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. “My understanding is that all options are on the table,” Adam Schefter said recently on ESPN. “They’re not sold on taking a quarterback at No. 2.” If that is the case, it all depends on who could potentially trade up to take Houston’s pick and the same goes for Arizona, who hold the third pick and are also fielding calls. ESPN’s Todd McShay floated the Tennessee Titans as a dark horse “lurking” in the Stroud conversation, noting coach Mike Vrabel’s Ohio State background. The Titans have the 11th overall pick and would need to trade up in order to get Stroud or otherwise could stay put and hope either Richardson or Levis fall to them. Either way, McShay said on ‘NFL Live’ that Stroud needs to land at a team with a “structured offence”. “Allow him to work inside the pocket because he’s an absolute sniper when he has time and a little bit to work with in terms of his wide receivers down the field,” McShay said. It prompted fellow ESPN expert and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky to mention the Las Vegas Raiders, who have the seventh overall pick, as another option for Stroud. “The Raiders are also a lock there,” he said. “Josh McDaniels’ offence is notorious for, ‘Get to the line of scrimmage, you’ve got a lot of different options’. I think that’s C.J.’s strength.” Numbers to know – Led the FBS with 45 touchdowns on passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield over the past two seasons. – Also led the FBS with a pass efficiency rating of 177.7. What the experts are saying Brugler: Stroud must become more comfortable embracing his athleticism and escapability, but he is an outstanding rhythm passer with touch, pacing and ball-speed control to carve up the defense. His passing skills give him an encouraging floor as an NFL starter and his development as a creator will ultimately determine his NFL ceiling. Kelly: Stroud is a polished, absurdly efficient passer with a strong arm and steely demeanour… Stroud rarely showed off out-of-structure playmaking skills though, and he played with an almost robotic style at times … he may need to develop his second-reaction skills at the next level. Jeremiah: Stroud is a pure, natural thrower with outstanding production. He has the desired size, arm strength and decision making for the position… His biggest issues arise when he has to move/reset and deliver the ball, as this causes his accuracy to suffer. ANTHONY RICHARDSON (Florida) Background College: Florida Class: R-Sophomore Age: 20 Height: 6-foot-4 (193 centimetres) Weight: 244 lbs (111 kilograms) Strengths Let’s start with the obvious stuff. Richardson is a freak athlete, as if he was made in a lab. The 20-year-old, measuring just over 6-4 and tipping the scales at 244 pounds, has a rare combination of size, strength, and athleticism. He has the highest ceiling of any of this year’s quarterback prospects. Some consider him to also have the lowest floor, although the argument can be made that his rushing ability actually gives him the best base to work with. But more on that later. For now let’s focus on why Richardson is worth the gamble, starting with his results at the NFL Combine. Richardson was always expected to be one of the biggest winners from the Combine and he didn’t disappoint, setting several records in the athletic tests. First, Richardson got 40.5 inches into the air to set a quarterback record for the vertical jump and made history once more with his 10-foot, 9-inch broad jump. Then came the highly-anticipated 40-yard dash, which Richardson completed in just 4.44 seconds — the fourth-best in combine history among quarterbacks. Dane Brugler described Richardson as a “freakshow” in his ultimate draft guide for The Athletic and even that may not do justice to the most physically gifted quarterback in this class. Of course, the big question is how this athleticism translates onto the football field and the expectation is that Richardson will thrive in the run game in particular. Remember the 61-yard rushing touchdown from Justin Fields against the Dolphins last season? That is the kind of play Richardson will be capable of if he lands in the right spot. Should Richardson elevate his passing game, he could be a very effective dual-threat quarterback having already flashed his enormous potential in a game against Utah last season. Richardson dazzled in the 29-26 win, becoming the third quarterback in Florida history to pass for 150-plus yards and score three rushing touchdowns in the same game. While Richardson’s rushing ability means he has a game-changing ceiling it also gives him a solid floor to work with that gives opposition defences just another thing to worry about. That is a point that ESPN’s Mina Kimes made when comparing Richardson to some of the league’s existing rushing quarterbacks and the impact their presence alone has on defences. “Sometimes when we talk about dual-threat quarterbacks who face a lot of single-high coverages and, for example, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones all ranked in the top 10 in terms of facing single-high in the NFL because of their rushing ability, it’s almost framed as a critique,” Kimes said on ‘NFL Live’. “Like, ‘Oh yeah, it’s easier for them. Defences are worried about them so they drop an extra man in the box’. Yes — because they themselves change the math. That itself is an attribute, it’s something they bring to the table. “While Levis and Richardson both had accuracy issues in college, the fact that Richardson comes into the NFL as, I believe, already a top-three rusher is going to make his life so much easier as a runner and as a passer.” Weaknesses While the highlight-reel plays will make Richardson an exciting prospect, it’s the simple stuff that leaves a lot to be desired at times. In particular, Richardson’s accuracy on short and simple throws make him very much a work in progress and it doesn’t help that he had just one full season as a starter at Florida. Wherever Richardson ends up, it has to be a team that understands the 20-year-old is a very raw prospect that will need time and patience regardless of the physical gifts he possesses. Richardson was also guilty of passing up the easier throws to instead attempt more difficult ones, often leading to interceptions (nine in 12 games with Florida last season). His completion percentage of 53.8 percent (176 of 327) ranked 13th among 14 SEC quarterbacks last season, although not all of the accuracy issues were on Richardson. While the accuracy issues could lead you to believe Richardson has the lowest floor of the top-four quarterback prospects, that may not actually be the case. It can be argued that Richardson actually has a higher floor than Young, Stroud or Levis due to his superior rushing ability. It gives Richardson — and whichever team drafts him — something to build the offence around even if there are early teething issues in the passing game. Just look at the way Chicago revamped its offence around designed runs for Justin Fields and found immediate success, even if he still left plenty to be desired as a passer. Possible draft destinations The Indianapolis Colts are primed to pick a quarterback in the opening round for the first time since taking Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in 2012. The Colts have been at a quarterback crossroads since Luck retired, bringing in Matt Ryan and later benching the veteran after he failed to spark a lethargic offence in desperate need of new life. Indianapolis is heading in a completely new direction this season and as a result, it makes sense for the Colts to take on a project that they can build and mould the offence around. Enter Richardson, with McShay calling it the “perfect marriage” on ‘NFL Live’. That is because head coach Shane Steichen has had success working with two of the league’s best young quarterbacks — Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert. Steichen’s work with Hurts in particular would give the Colts confidence, since the Eagles quarterback entered last season with question marks over his passing game from the pocket. Hurts definitely answered those questions and was rewarded handsomely with a new contract having proven himself Philadelphia’s clear franchise quarterback for the future. Richardson can be the same for the Colts or any other team that is willing to install the quarterback run game, according to Orlovsky. “You have to be an offence that will utilise the quarterback run,” Orlovsky said on ‘NFL Live’. “If you’re not, then I think you’re wasting his time.” The Colts have been heavily linked to Levis though. That potentially brings Seattle, Las Vegas Detroit into the mix as teams that already have short-term solutions at quarterback (Geno Smith, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff) but need to start planning into the future. Drafting Richardson would give all three teams a quarterback who could potentially elevate the offence to new levels without needing to rush him into the starting role right away. Numbers to know – Had 103 rushes for 654 yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games in his most recent season. – Also threw for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 53.8 completion rate. – Average touchdown pass in 2022 was thrown 22.7 yards downfield — ranked second longest in the FBS. What the experts are saying Brugler: Richardson’s volatile accuracy and decision-making cloud his evaluation, but he is a freakshow talent with special size, speed and arm strength, and he put enough promising plays on film to be optimistic about his potential ceiling. He fits an RPO or NFL vertical-passing offense that will also utilize his athleticism, but he needs on-field reps and a patient coaching staff willing to weather the early storm. Kelly: Richardson brings a rare collection of tools to the quarterback position, boasting an ideal frame, strong arm, and top-tier athleticism. He’s still raw, with a worrying lack of starting experience; his accuracy and decision-making are inconsistent. Jeremiah: Richardson packs elite arm strength and athleticism into a big/physical frame for the position, but he is incredibly raw on tape. He has urgency and explosiveness in his setup, and the ball jumps out of his hand from his three-quarters arm slot. His arm strength is special; he doesn’t even need to engage his lower body to make power throws deep down the field. On the flip side, his decision making and accuracy are a rollercoaster ride… Richardson needs polish, but his upside exceeds everyone in the draft class. He’s a low-floor/high-ceiling prospect. WILL LEVIS (Kentucky) Background College: Kentucky Class: R-Sophomore Age: 23 Height: 6-foot-4 (193 centimetres) Weight: 229 lbs (104 kilograms) Strengths Levis flashed his potential as an NFL starter with a breakout 2021 season at Kentucky, having appeared in 15 games for just one start in two seasons at Penn State. The 23-year-old threw for 2,827 yards and 24 touchdowns while running for nine more scores, becoming the first Kentucky quarterback with at least 15 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in one season since 2003. If there is one thing that separates Levis from the other elite quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, it is his top-tier arm strength. It’s something Levis himself pointed to at the Combine earlier this year and will help him beat coverages on all three levels. “I think physically, I’d just say my arm talent,” the former Kentucky quarterback said. “I think I got one of the stronger arms that’s come out of any draft class in recent memory. And then just who I am as a person, kind of my morals, what I stand for, my values.” Levis also had exposure to a pro-style offence with a “zone-blocking, play-action-heavy scheme” that The Athletic’s Diante Lee wrote “reflects the way many successful NFL offences attack”. Weaknesses For starters, normal eating habits. Although, maybe eating unpeeled bananas and drinking coffee with mayonnaise helped Levis build that strong arm? In fact, there have been some suggestions that Levis is too “jacked up” to succeed as a quarterback. “I just take it as a compliment,” the chiselled signal-caller said. “I definitely know there’s nothing about my stature that limits my ability as a quarterback and as a passer. If anything, it empowers it. So, I think it’s just funny and people can say whatever they want to say.” And people have had plenty to say about Levis, namely that inconsistency with his accuracy and general decision-making could hold him back in the NFL. Levis may be more experienced than Richardson with 26 starts to his name, but that should also mean that he isn’t turning the ball over as much as he did in the 2022 season. The Kentucky quarterback’s worst game came against Tennessee, completing just 16 of 27 passes for 98 yards and three interceptions. “The decision-making at times [concerns me],” Tim Hasselbeck said on SportsCenter. “I would also agree he is a guy who has muscled up a little bit and that has impacted his accuracy some but I think it’s the decision-making that has me more concerned. “I think in the process when you can sit back and watch a season with him and say, ‘What were you thinking with this throw?’, I think it will tell you a lot about where Will Levis in terms of what type of decision-maker he is, what he knows and what he was actually seeing. But that [the decision-making] would be my knock on him as a prospect.” The biggest question though is to what extent Levis’ issues in the 2022 season were a product of his own poor play or more a matter of external factors, including injuries and losing his top offensive linemen, receivers, running backs and offensive coordinator Liam Coen. It might also explain why Levis was taken down 36 times in the 2022 season, with a 10.7 per cent sack rate which ranked the highest by a SEC quarterback over the last 10 years. Now, unlike some of the other quarterbacks in this class, Levis can afford to take a hit or two given how well built he is but you obviously don’t want him taking too many. Possible draft destinations While the Colts could go for Richardson they may just as easily opt for Levis instead. Levis may not have the same sky-high ceiling but his floor is high and he has all the physical tools to be a quality NFL starter, perhaps right away if Indianapolis is willing to be patient early. There is also a chance that Levis falls down the draft, with The Ringer’s Danny Kelly even mocking him to the Texans, who he has trading up to take the 23-year-old. Tennessee and even Tampa Bay are two other intriguing teams to watch should Levis not be taken inside the top-10. Alternatively, both teams could also trade up if they like him enough. Regardless of which team takes Levis, McShay said on ‘NFL Live’ that the Kentucky graduate needs to land at a spot with a coach who is willing to really make time for him as a project. “He needs the game simplified,” said McShay. “Look what Brian Daboll did for Josh Allen early in his career and what Brian Daboll did this past year with Danny Dimes. To me, Daniel Jones only makes that progression because of the coaching and I think Jalen Hurts was helped because of Steichen. “Will Levis, for all the football he’s played, he still needs some developing. He has some aspects of his game in terms of inside the pocket, protecting his body, I think he’s got to become more flexible with his upper body. “There’s some things he’s going to have to work on so I think having a coach that can really work with him one-on-one to get the most out of him will help him a lot like Josh Allen and Danny Dimes had in their last stops with Brian Daboll.” Numbers to know – The best of the top four QB prospects in completion rate when pressured, with a 9.4 yard per attempt average. – One of only two FBS players to have a four-pass TD game AND a four-rush TD game since 2021. – Threw 23 interceptions in the past two years. – Seven big-time throws on 286 attempts, per PFF — easily the fewest of the top four QB prospects (defined by PFF as passes with “excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window”). What the experts are saying Brugler: Levis needs more reps to continue developing his read efficiency and ball placement, but he has an NFL starter’s skill set with his impressive physical tools (size, arm, athleticism) and exceptional competitive toughness. Similarities with Carson Wentz should be considered both a positive and negative, but he has starter-level traits and upside. Kelly: Levis has the combination of size, arm strength, and athleticism to develop into a franchise quarterback; he’ll dazzle teams with his tools. While the high-level traits are there, Levis is frustratingly inconsistent. He threw 23 interceptions in the past two years. He occasionally drifts into pressure and his internal clock needs to speed up; he holds the ball too long at times and takes unnecessary sacks. Jeremiah: Levis is an inconsistent player on tape, but he possesses ideal size, arm strength and athleticism. He is a power thrower, capable of fitting the ball into tight windows at the second and third levels. However, he needs to get more consistent underneath… Overall, Levis is gifted, but has some bad habits he needs to clean up in order to be a reliable NFL starter.
