Six AFL clubs who can’t play finals… and the bottom four side that can: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

After six rounds we’re ready to rule six teams out of the finals race – but we still believe in one that’s stuck in the bottom four.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. COLLINGWOOD (5-1, 119.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

For all the talk last year about the Magpies’ ability to come back and win, they actually did something on Anzac Day they didn’t do in 2022. Their biggest comeback last year, in terms of a three-quarter-time deficit, was 26 points against North Melbourne; they were 28 points down at the final change against Essendon. Clearly the moment got to the Bombers, but this is what the Pies can do – they play a risky style that can score quickly. They don’t have to suddenly speed up their game and take chances, because that’s already their normal mode; perhaps that’s what helps them in those situations. What would help them even more is not trailing by 28 points at three-quarter-time, of course. They remain our No.1 seed but they’ve shown over the past three weeks they’re definitely gettable, and the Crows in Adelaide will be yet another fascinating test.

Next game: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Sunday twilight

2. MELBOURNE (4-2, 129.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

Even when the Demons were down by a couple of goals at halftime, you just got the feeling they would get over the top of the Tigers, and in the end they just strangled the game into going their way. They weren’t overly impressive in the contest, and they needed Richmond to miss some very makeable shots on goal that would’ve left the final minutes nervy, but since we still believe the Tigers are good (as explained below) this was a good win in our books. There is no reason Melbourne should not be 7-2 with the Kangaroos, Suns and Hawks to come – it’s a great chance to patch up some of the flaws they’ve shown over the first six weeks.

Next game: North Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday night

3. ST KILDA (5-1, 142.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

This isn’t 2022. The comparison everyone wants to draw is to last year’s Saints, who went 5-1 and then 8-3 before falling apart in the second half of the season. But that was a record built on beating mostly bad teams (five non-finalists plus Fremantle and Richmond before they got going, and the upset over Geelong) – and the underlying numbers were very different. Between Rounds 1 and 6 last year the Saints ranked 15th for ball movement; this year they’re first, as well as first for preventing ball movement from D50 to F50. Their excellent defence has them allowing just 60 points a week. As Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne explained on SEN on Wednesday night, the only times they’ve done better than that after six rounds, they won the flag (1966) and should’ve won it (2009). This team is a legitimate top four contender and if you’re in the top four you can win the flag.

Next game: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Friday night

4. GEELONG (3-3, 137.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

The Cats are not back back. We need to see them against a not-ravaged-by-injury contender before declaring that. But we also can’t ignore how much better they’ve been over the last three weeks – as we often say, good teams win, and great teams win by a lot. So the premiers have done their percentage a huge favour with their comfortable victories over Hawthorn, West Coast and Sydney, and look ready to bank enough wins at home that finals look very, very likely. Of course they could run into a Brad Scott-shaped, red and black wall this Sunday – though Chris Scott would be the same shape, we suppose… this analogy makes no sense. Anyway, the point is the Bombers are a genuine threat this weekend, so we’re very keen to see how the Cats go.

Next game: Essendon at the MCG, Sunday early

5. BRISBANE LIONS (4-2, 113.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

The point of having a ridiculously star-studded forward line is it gives you a lot of mulligans – maybe some of the players up there don’t fire, but at least someone will, and could even take over the game. Against the Giants, it was Charlie Cameron’s turn, with a career-high seven goals on one of those days that makes you go ‘yeah, jeez, we’re genuinely watching one of the best small forwards of this era, aren’t we?’ The Lions are going along pretty nicely and with how poor the Dockers’ defence has been recently, they could put up a monster score back at home this Saturday.

Next game: Fremantle at the Gabba, Saturday early

6. SYDNEY SWANS (3-3, 105.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

A few years back Sydney copped an injury crisis that saw them with literally three talls available. They’re suddenly back in a similarly awful situation, with Callum Mills being asked to defend Tom Hawkins one-on-one last Saturday night summing up just how bad things got. Mills being out of position also impacted their midfield work, which has been relatively poor, so the hope is that their recent woes are purely personnel-based. Tom McCartin is a chance for the Sydney Derby this week and getting the first shot at a Giants defence having to reshuffle without Sam Taylor is a blessing. We’re going to hold our faith in the Swans for a little while longer – at least until they show us more poor form with something close to their best 23 out there.

Next game: GWS Giants at the SCG, Saturday afternoon

7. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-2, 115.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

The Crows head into a mouth-watering Sunday blockbuster with Collingwood on the AFL’s longest winning streak, and their best since early 2019. The fourth victory, Sunday’s over Hawthorn, was one of those tricky ones finals contenders just have to pull out – and in the end it was their emerging strength that saved them. After years of inaccuracy the Crows are suddenly deadeyes in front of goal, with Darcy Fogarty’s game-winner probably deserving even more praise than it got given the degree of difficulty. Is he the best kick for goal in the comp right now? He’s certainly one of the most satisfying to watch; he just looks and feels like a footballer, doesn’t he? We’re very keen to watch them take on the Pies – not just because it should be high-scoring, but you’d have to say a win would catapult Adelaide into the top four conversation.

Next game: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Sunday twilight

8. PORT ADELAIDE (4-2, 101.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

The Power have successfully gone through the Three Stages Of Coach Pressure – the upset win to relieve it, the important, tight win to keep it away, and the comprehensive thumping of a poor side to ensure it doesn’t return – which brings them nicely into a pair of genuine tests. All three of Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Essendon are trying to prove they’re legit finals contenders after missing the eight last year. Right now we believe in the Saints the most, but if the Power can knock them off and back it up by beating the Bombers at home a week later, they’ll be the one up in the top four hunt. Lose both and Port will probably find themselves out of the top eight and needing to claim some scalps to vault back in. It’s an important fortnight.

Next game: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Friday night

9. ESSENDON (4-2, 120%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

We would love to have the Bombers even higher, but it’s hard to move them up over teams that won when they lost. The fall-from-ahead loss to Collingwood was a heartbreaker for a team that played so well for three quarters, but we still saw Brad Scott’s men at their best for most of Anzac Day. They were organised and potent enough offensively when they needed it. Two weeks ago we weren’t willing to believe in Essendon – but then they produced two very good performances against the top two contenders. When the facts change, our opinions have to change too, and clearly if the version of Essendon we’ve seen so far can be sustained, they’re a finals contender. To us that’s even more surprising than St Kilda being legit, though on a Twitter poll we posted on Tuesday the vote went slightly the Saints’ way. They can absolutely beat Geelong this weekend.

Next game: Geelong at the MCG, Sunday early

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (3-3, 90.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

Another comfortable win in the west (they certainly enjoy home and away games over there) has the Bulldogs firmly back in the ‘well, they’re at least mid-table’ mix, which is a nice change from the ‘how are they THIS bad with this list??’ place they inhabited a few weeks back. Having two of the top 10, maybe top five, players of the season right now in Marcus Bontempelli and Tim English continues to help. Beat the Hawks and Giants over the next fortnight, as you’d expect, and their looming Round 9 showdown with Carlton – another team right on the borderline of the top eight, in our eyes – will be even tastier.

Next game: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Saturday twilight

11. CARLTON (3-2-1, 92.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

The rest of the footy world is starting to realise the Blues have a scoring problem, as we’ve been discussing for a while. They’ve also got a ball movement problem though that is slightly more personnel based; it’s understandable that the AFL’s best defence stifled them when they’ve arguably got three All-Australian halfbacks on the injury list. But the reality for Carlton is over their last 18 games, they’ve gone 7-10 with a draw and barely beaten anyone of note. Fremantle last year and Geelong this year are good scalps, but their other wins (Essendon, West Coast and GWS last year, and GWS and North Melbourne this year) are simply wins they had to have, rather than anything worth celebrating. They should get another one this weekend but at some point, this inability to beat most of the teams around and above them has to be a season-defining concern. Is Michael Voss really getting the most out of this group?

Next game: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Saturday night

12. RICHMOND (1-4-1, 90.3%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

We might be the last ones in the ‘Richmond is still good!’ room so we’ll turn off the lights if needed, but the Tigers feel like this year’s prime example of the ladder lying. Would anyone really say the bottom four teams right now – North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast and Hawthorn – are the worst four teams? One of those things is not like the other, and it’s Damien Hardwick’s men. They kicked themselves out of holding off Melbourne on Monday night; on expected score they actually should’ve won the game, after a strong performance in contested footy. We’re not trying to say the Tigers are secret flag contender or anything crazy like that – the losses all count, and they’re going to have to win 11 or 12 of their last 17 games to play finals. That’s not easy especially with the injuries they’ve got. But they’re losing to good teams, so if they can just start beating the teams they really should be beating – Gold Coast next, West Coast after that – they should be back in the mid-table mix where they belong.

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium, Sunday afternoon

13. FREMANTLE (2-4, 89.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

We’re happy to be proven wrong but we’re ruling the Dockers out from finals – yes, this early. A 2-4 start given the opponents they’ve actually faced is just nowhere near good enough and more to the point, at no stage have they played like the team that nearly pinched a top four spot last year. The most they gave up in a game in 2022 was 91 points – they’ve already coughed up 100 twice this year, plus 90 against Gold Coast (who are even worse offensively than Freo). Roughly one-in-eight teams play finals from a 2-5 record, which is what the Dockers are staring at if they lose to Brisbane this weekend; and after that they’ve got Hawthorn, Sydney (away), Geelong and Melbourne (away). If they can get to their Round 12 bye at 4-7 or better they’re at least alive… but we’re struggling to even see that happening.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Saturday early

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (2-4, 85.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

If you watched the Suns’ win over the Kangaroos, first of all thank you, and secondly you probably think like us – that was about North Melbourne being bad more than Gold Coast being good. Don’t get us wrong, the Suns are a better team up at Whatever Carrara’s Now Called – which makes them playing home games in Darwin even more of a problem – but with Touk Miller likely sidelined until the bye, we haven’t seen anything that suggests this team can play finals in 2023. To do it, they would absolutely need to start winning games like this Sunday’s against the Tigers.

Next game: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Sunday afternoon

15. GWS GIANTS (2-4, 91.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

The two most recent (for now) expansion clubs had similar weekends – solid performances soured by an awful injury. The Suns’ (Touk Miller) is very bad but the Giants’ is even worse, because Sam Taylor is a genuine superstar of the competition. He’s the definition of the unfortunately true cliche of ‘he’d be a household name if he played for a big Victorian club’ – we don’t want to alarm you but yes, the footy world pays more attention to Collingwood or Carlton than the Giants – and it’s hard not to worry for Adam Kingsley’s defence without arguably the best backman in the country.

Next game: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Saturday afternoon

16. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-4, 73.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

The Kangaroos’ hold on 16th is a tenuous one, after a second straight woeful performance against a Queensland-based club. (Maybe someone said they were relocating up to the Gold Coast this weekend and they got some weird flashbacks?) Perhaps the fact they’ve played four games in six weeks outside of Victoria has caught up with them, but they’d want to return to their surprisingly-feisty status soon or the worst fate of all could befall them… dropping in the Power Rankings.

Next game: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday night

17. HAWTHORN (1-5, 64.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

The Hawks could easily be 3-3, having shown plenty of fight against both the Giants and Crows over the last two weeks. And it’s good to see that their Tassie fortress is still holding up, even in the doldrums of their rebuild, with arguably their best two performances of the season coming in Launceston. What a great relationship that is between club and state. Now let’s check the internet to see what else is going on in Hawks land-oh, James Sicily, no!

Next game: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday twilight

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-5, 72.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

It is somewhat remarkable that the Eagles are back in the same position as last year. They have 1728 games of experience on the pre-Round 7 injury list, as of Wednesday evening. The next closest team Sydney has 1090 games missing; Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Melbourne and St Kilda combined have fewer games missing than the Eagles. So yeah, we’ve put them last, but we can’t really evaluate their performances right now. We can say they’re playing a more modern game style. We can say with Reuben Ginbey and Jai Culley are their first Rising Star nominees since basically, what, the bicentennial? So there are positives to be found, at least. But jeez they’re copping a bad run.

Next game: Carlton at Optus Stadium, Saturday night