By Nick Berney
Selections based on a heavy track.
Race 1 – 12:05PM TUNCURRY BEACH BOWLING CLUB CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2100 METRES)
The Kris Lees stable has a strong hand at Tuncurry on Friday. Credit:Getty
3. Socrates raced wide throughout in a strong tempo and had the bias against him in a TAB Highway (1400m) at Rosehill last start. He battled on well, and his profile suggests he is ready to improve third up. The James Ponsonby galloper rises sharply in distance but maps well and is proven on the rain-affected ground.
Dangers: 1. Byakko got too far back in a slow-paced race and ran on well last start at Lismore. He brings a fitness edge, a competitive last-start figure and is proven at the distance. 4. Milka wasn’t suited to a sit and sprint tempo last start at Newcastle but tried hard in defeat. The step up in distance is ideal and will roll forward. 2. So And So meets tougher opposition but has been honest all prep.
How to play it: Socrates WIN. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 2 – 12:40PM FORSTER BOWLING CLUB STRAND BAR & GRILL COUNTRY BOOSTED MAIDEN HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
10. Discreet Lady’s first-up run had merit at Newcastle in a high-rating race. The three-year-old was unsuited to settling at the rear of the field in an even tempo and had to make her run through the inferior ground. She still sprinted one of the fastest 400m-200m splits of the meeting in 11.24 and maintained a strong finishing speed. The Tom Higgins-trained galloper will get back from the draw but expect her to be hitting the line well. Each-way.
Dangers: 5. De Lovely Lad resumes without an official trial but was outstanding in defeat prior to spelling last prep. He sets up well here with a favourable map and finds a winnable race. 4. Vilified gets the blinkers back on and can sprint fresh. He is a key late market watch. Debutante 12. Salix has trialled well and gets a senior rider in Grant Buckley for race day. Add 9. Delightful Dream to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Discreet Lady E/W. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 – 1:15PM TUNCURRY BEACH BOWLING CLUB MAIDEN PLATE (1200 METRES)
7. Rubigal is well-placed dropping back to country grade here. The four-year-old was honest first up in a high-rating race at Wyong and ran on well. She clocked some of the fastest final 400m/200m splits of the entire meeting in 23.49/11.89. She will have to overcome the tricky draw but expect an aggressive ride, and a repeat of her last start will make her hard to beat.
Dangers: 12. Athena Nyx was unsuited over 900m on debut at Scone and closed off well, maintaining a solid finishing speed to the line. The Kris Lees-trained galloper can settle closer and appreciate the rise in distance where she can build into a rhythm and savage the line. 9. Waipio is a consistent type and rock-hard fit. She has a solid starting price profile and will roll forward. 11. He’s A Copy Boy ran on OK last start at Taree 14 days ago. The gelding is lightly raced and brings strong form lines. 4. Red Lantern is a knockout chance.
How to play it: Rubigal WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 – 1:55PM CANADIAN CLUB MAIDEN PLATE (1200 METRES)
12. Point Break was 29 days between runs last start at Scone and raced well in a strong time race. The three-year-old was backed $4.8-$4.2 late in the trade and chased a fast tempo throughout before looming to win but fitness told late. That race rated highly relative to the day after adjusting for age, class, track condition and additional factors with multiple subsequent placegetters to confirm the form. The Kris Lees-trained galloper is coming out of time/sectional merit races all prep, has a dominant ratings profile relative to his rivals and receives a significant barrier change that will allow him to roll forward and control the pace. He is hard to beat with even luck and ready to peak fourth up.
Dangers: Key market watch on NZ import 3. The Orphan, who hasn’t had an official public trial but brings metropolitan form lines. He was solid first up at Cambridge on a synthetic track. 2. Little Red Power got too far back last start and hit the line well. 10. Wave can rate to win but will need to improve off his first-up effort at Muswellbrook. Add 5. Asterns Girl to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Point Break WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 5 – 2:35PM CLUB FORSTER BAR & GRILL MAIDEN HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Forget 2. Strobing’s last start at Newcastle, where he was four wide in a fast race. Prior to that start, he was brave in defeat to run third in a proven form race that has produced a subsequent winner. The three-year-old gelding is ready to peak third up, will roll forward and receives a senior rider for the first time this prep in Grant Buckley.
Dangers: 10. Ocean Flyer started a well fancied $1.70 favourite at Port Macquarie last start but raced flat. She can bounce back here and maps to have all favours. 14. Star Of Yamba wasn’t suited at Newcastle last start and hit the line well. Expect her to settle worse than midfield and savage the line. The Kris Lees-trained duo 3. Star Impact and 7. Kirameki are improving and are key late market watches.
How to play it: Strobing WIN & Ocean Flyer WIN. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 6 – 3:10PM TUNCURRY BEACH BOWLING CLUB “THE MAN WALK” COUNTRY BOOSTED CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
4. Hombre Grande resumed for his new trainer Mark Stewart and won well with the blinkers back on. Although the gelding had every chance, he produced a career peak figure and has come back improved. He maps to control the pace, is proven on the rain-affected ground and will give a sight.
Dangers: 2. Cool Amigo was perfectly ridden to run second last start at Murwillumbah and tried hard. The blinkers come off, and he brings strong form lines. 6. That’s Molly had too much to do last start and hit the line well. Expect her to get back again but will look to have the last shot. 3. Steady Jam is ticking over OK and is fit.
How to play it: Hombre Grande WIN. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 7 – 3:45PM THE BELLEVUE HOTEL TUNCURRY GOLDEN MILE (1600 METRES)
3. Sound And Vision raced flat second up and raced on his non-preferred surface at Newcastle 20 days ago. Prior to that start, he got too far back at Coffs Harbour and ran on well. He clocked 36.20 for his final 600m sectional, a strong split relative to other runners across the day. Third up, rising in distance, can settle closer from the soft draw and drops significantly in grade. Each-way.
Dangers: 10. Forever Jude was slowly away last start and wasn’t suited to a moderate tempo. Hit the line hard in a high-rating last sectional race, indicating that the step up to 1600m is ideal. 6. Millennium Jewel is a consistent type and drops in grade. She will roll forward from the tricky draw and give a sight. Add 2. Achi Baba and 7. Swing The Tide to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Sound And Vision E/W. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 8 – 4:25PM INSPIRATIONS PAINT FORSTER & TOOHEYS XXXX GOLD CUP (2100 METRES)
6. Oakfield Pinto was checked at a critical stage and couldn’t build momentum when the sprint went on last start at Wyong. Once clear, he ran on well into fourth behind some progressive types. The five-year-old gelding is on an upwards ratings spiral this prep, maps well and brings the best last-start figure.
Dangers: 3. Casirina profiles well for this race, is rock-hard fit and proven at the distance. Expect to be fighting out the finish and will handle the testing conditions. 4. Spring Break had every chance last start at Hawkesbury but has strong form lines. 2. Alloway comes through the same race as Oakfield Pinto, albeit starting longer in the market, and he can give a sight.
How to play it: Oakfield Pinto WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 9 – 5:05PM “THE EVERMORE PEARL” SPONSORED BY BROKEN BAY PEARLS BENCHMARK 66 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
9. Sir Ravanelli sat outside the leader in a slow tempo last start at Rosehill in a TAB Highway (1200m) and tried hard in defeat. He is a consistent type, receives a gear change and will benefit from having a freshen-up. All his best runs have come on rain-affected ground and expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 2. Annulus is in career best form and on an upwards ratings spiral this prep. Will need some luck from the draw but is rock-hard fit and brings the best last-start figure. 11. Unpredicted led and won well first up at Muswellbrook. He has a tactical map advantage over some of his rivals and has returned well. Market watch 7. Leeside who drops in grade. Add 3. Time For Victory and 10. Very Sharp to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Sir Ravanelli WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Best Bets: Race 4 (12) Point Break; Race 3 (7) Rubigal
Best Value: Race 5 (2) Strobing and (10) Ocean Flyer
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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