Melbourne and Richmond collide in the highly-anticipated Anzac Day Eve clash on Monday night, and the byplay for both clubs adds intrigue to the showdown.
As flagged by The Age on Sunday night, every Tigers loss benefits the Giants, and although irrelevant to the outcome of Monday’s game specifically, Melbourne is prospering from Fremantle’s struggles in 2023.
And suddenly, Richmond and the Dockers are paying a heavier price than they would’ve anticipated for their marquee off-season recruits, or at least, as things stand.
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Starting with the Tigers, they handed over a huge haul of two first-round picks, a second rounder plus an extra future first rounder to get the double deal over the line to land Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto from GWS on seven-year deals.
It means Richmond still owes the Giants a first-round pick in this year’s draft, and currently, that would be the third overall selection the 16th-placed Tigers hand over.
There’s been plenty of criticism around how Hopper and Taranto haven’t bolstered the Tigers’ midfield as intended, and as is the case for most trade recruits, so much opinion is formed based on how the team is performing.
Many tipped their additions would help Richmond return to premiership contention, but the club has instead gone in the opposite direction as its midfield remains a weak point as a collective.
Of course, injuries to key stars at Tigerland, most notably Toby Nankervis and Tom Lynch – perhaps the club’s two most important players – hasn’t helped, but it also shouldn’t be solely to blame for its underwhelming form, with just one win through five games.
Hopper and Taranto were also brought in to bridge the gap from Richmond’s veterans to its new crop of young players coming through the ranks, so it’d be unfair to judge the success of the trade after just five games.
“From the outside looking in, Richmond still thinks it’s in that premiership window. Those acquisitions were for now and to fill a gap in their game style it felt was needed,” Lewis told foxfooty.com.au.
“I think those two players have performed relatively well, but the position they’re in as a whole hasn’t performed very well – they’ve dropped off in contested possessions and clearances.
“The integration of those two players hasn’t worked in the early part of the season, and they probably haven’t gotten maximum value for the investment in the short-term.
“It’s extraordinary because you give up those future picks because you think you can achieve a lot in the short term, but you lose sight on the long-term cycle of AFL.”
The Giants would meanwhile be rubbing their hands together over the possibility of having two top seven picks in this year’s draft to help accelerate a mini rebuild of sorts.
Like Richmond, the Dockers took a big punt on Jackson, off-loading Pick 13 as well as a future first rounder and second rounder for the exciting big man, also handing him a seven-year deal believed to be worth as much as $900,000 per season.
Fremantle was of course coming off a promising 2022 season where it occupied a top four spot for much of the campaign before finishing fifth, so the addition of perhaps the game’s most exciting up-and-coming ruckman was a tantalising prospect.
Although Jackson clearly isn’t to blame for Fremantle’s struggles, his fit alongside primary ruckman Sean Darcy has been clunky – and was always a question mark – while the 13th-placed Dockers have been one of the AFL’s biggest underachieving sides this season.
It’s too early to judge the move on Fremantle’s end as well though, with is still being so early in the season and the recruitment of the 21-year old Jackson also made with a long-term view.
But the Dees will too be benefiting in that regard with claim to the Dockers’ Pick 6 and Pick 24 if the 2023 draft was held tomorrow.
“I think Fremantle went into it with a long-term approach. Luke Jackson is a young developing ruckman who shows a lot of promise, so I get we’re they’re coming from,” Lewis said.
“They were backing themselves in to perform really well this season. The first-round selection they were handing over to Melbourne, from their point of view, would’ve ideally been in the back end of the round.
“But it’s looking quite fruitful for Melbourne at the moment, it looks like it’s going to be a really high selection.
“Fremantle went into it recruiting a player for specific needs to support Sean Darcy, but Jackson is also relatively young and untapped, so they would see that as a win.
“I think Melbourne would be really confident they haven’t lost too much in giving up Jackson but also acquiring those picks.”
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Lewis admitted Fremantle has a conundrum on its hands given neither Darcy or Jackson are natural forwards and both players are best suited to playing “80 per cent” in the ruck, saying “something has to give” or Jackson needs to contribute more as a forward.
It’s clear neither move has gone to script just yet, and although there’s still plenty to play out, there’s a buyer beware message to come from it.
It highlights the risks of trading future assets, and although it only became a feature in the AFL in 2015 – and clubs can only move picks one year in the future – the concept has been a key part of team management strategy in other codes like the NBA.
A key difference in AFL however is the lesser impact one player has on their team, so clubs must tread carefully with how much they give up to acquire stars, plus we know the significance one successful draft haul can have.
Sure, there’s generational talents like Gary Ablett Jr, Chris Judd, Lance Franklin and Dustin Martin that can seemingly single-handedly change a club’s fortunes. But such superstars only come around so often, and the market value of players has skyrocketed in recent years, with clubs now paying inordinate prices to get deals done – both in monetary terms and assets given up.
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As Lewis explained, the strategy in list management is a delicate balance.
“There’s always risk involved in trading future picks and you always weigh up the pros and cons of it,” Lewis added.
“You look at the draft, the depth of the draft and what you need right here and now, but also what the draft might provide you. So there’s a lot of decisions that go into it.
“You’re then relying on your team to perform well, so the draft selection you’ve given up isn’t too high.
“If you’re trading future picks, you’re trading for a player you’ll absolutely need and a player you can build a future around.
“Or you’re trading future picks to stay in the window and be prepared to go all-in now and suffer some pain in the long run.”
