Football is here.
For Australians, that means 3am Monday wake-ups are back. And for those who don’t have the fortune of watching sport as part of their job, quietly streaming Monday Night Football on Kayo while the boss isn’t looking.
With that in mind, it’s time to run the rule over the NFL. Before you get angry or confused, this is NOT a Power Rankings, it’s a tiers system, and this is just one man’s opinion.
Nevertheless, here is every team put into tiers and analysed ahead of the 2022 season…
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SUPER BOWL FAVOURITES, JUST ASK… EVERYONE?
Buffalo Bills
OK, but what if we’re all wrong?
The NFL off-season is long. Long enough for narratives to build, collapse, and become something else.
And generally that’s what happens — we’ll get to the Cincinnati Bengals in a bit.
But in the case of the Buffalo Bills, the chatter has been consistent, and really, has only gotten more forceful as the wait for football’s gone on.
The Buffalo Bills are going to win the Super Bowl. Apparently.
Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL. Apparently. And won’t be affected at all by offensive coordinator Brian Daboll leaving to coach the Giants. Apparently.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I think Buffalo is probably the most talented team in the league. At least top three. And they certainly deserve to sit among the favourites going into the season.
But maybe, just maybe, a team that finished with an 11-6 record last year, who went just 6-5 in games outside the AFC East, and lost in the Divisional Round, needs to prove a little more before we start pencilling them in.
Buffalo did get better in the off-season, but still have legitimate weaknesses — like the secondary, which allowed that 13-second disaster against Kansas City.
I’m not saying don’t pick the Bills. But maybe don’t put the mortgage on it.
NOT GOING ANYWHERE
Los Angeles Rams
We just can’t escape cliches in the sports world.
And the one that feels the most unwarranted right now is the old ‘Super Bowl hangover’ the Rams are apparently going to take into the new season.
Von Miller is now a Bill, Andrew Whitworth has finally put his feet up, while Odell Beckham Jr. continues to float in free agency limbo, and Los Angeles has an unfriendly 2022 schedule.
But what are we talking about here? The Rams also re-signed Aaron Donald, added Bobby Wagner to the defence, and can now put Allen Robinson alongside Cooper Kupp on offence.
Matthew Stafford’s elbow issue appears to be at very least manageable, and the Rams’ win-now approach hasn’t changed at all.
I’m happy to give the Super Bowl champions the benefit of the doubt.
Cincinnati Bengals
As mentioned above, the Bengals are one of those teams that have ridden the narrative wave this off-season.
Immediately after their Super Bowl defeat, experts, one at a time, jumped off the bandwagon that had taken them all the way to the big dance. Cincinnati’s miracle run was seen as just that — a miracle — as hopes of a repeat were shut down before they’d even had a chance to think about next season.
But then the Bengals added Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La’el Collins to fix the offensive line, and the talk started to change.
One thing is clear: Cincinnati has a better roster than it did last year.
Of course, they outperformed what they had on paper in the playoffs. But now they might actually have a Super Bowl roster.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You know the drill.
It’s Tom Brady, Tampa’s still super talented, and we shouldn’t expect anything but another contending season from the Buccaneers.
But — and there is a tiny but — things don’t seem as perfect as they normally do ahead of a Brady season.
The 45-year-old retired. Then unretired. He also vanished during pre-season, before returning to tell reporters: “I’m 45 years old, man. There’s a lot of shit going on. Just gotta try to figure out life the best you can. It’s a continuous process.”
It’s all fair. But it’s also pretty strange to hear from maybe the most singularly-focused athlete we’ve ever seen.
There’s also the injuries on the offensive line that would scare you if you’re a Tampa Bay fan.
Either way, if Brady doesn’t pull another disappearing act, the Bucs should go far with the talent on the roster.
Kansas City Chiefs
There’s no Tyreek Hill. But everything else points towards a big year for Kansas City.
Patrick Mahomes, by his standards, had a less than stellar season — only throwing for 4,839 yards and 37 touchdowns in 2021 — and the Chiefs still made the AFC Championship Game, and probably should have won it.
With arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, and a more unpredictable offensive system without Hill, the stage could be set for Mahomes to remind those who need reminding who the best quarterback in the league really is.
Green Bay Packers
Nothing ever seems particularly pleasant in Green Bay, but how can you bet against them having another big year?
Sure, there’s no Davante Adams after forced a trade and signed a 5-year, $140 million ($A207m) deal in Las Vegas. I get that.
But since taking over from Mike McCarthy, head coach Matt LaFleur is 39-10 in the regular season, with Aaron Rodgers’ revenge tour on his own team working out in the weirdest way possible.
The Packers seem a lot less concerned about Adams’ departure than the rest of us. And that probably has something to do with a slight change in approach.
Expect Green Bay to lean on its defence and run game, with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to play a big role in the passing offence too.
PROVE IT
Los Angeles Chargers
There may be no team that unites — and then ultimately disappoints — football nerds quite like the Chargers.
Despite a 15-17 record as a starter, and the fact he’s never made the postseason, Justin Herbert is widely regarded as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. And I’m not saying he isn’t. Just that, like many, I’ve felt short-changed by the Chargers before.
But people, this season could be different.
Hands up if you’ve heard that one before.
In all seriousness, Los Angeles has gotten better, adding J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack on defence, and drafting some offensive line help in Zion Johnson.
This is the year, right?
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson is playing for what probably could, and should, be the biggest contract in NFL history and the Ravens are healthy again.
It’s easy to forget that Baltimore was the No. 1 seed in the AFC up until December when the injury toll eventually became too much to overcome.
This time around, the Ravens should expect some positive injury regression, and a big season from Jackson, who wants a bigger contract than the organisation is willing to offer right now.
The question mark around Jackson is his play in the post-season. A deep run this year, and the former MVP will hold all the cards.
A CHANCE… BUT IS THE QUARTERBACK ANY GOOD?
Philadelphia Eagles
I’m not exactly sure when it happened, but there was a point this off-season where we seemingly all agreed: the Philadelphia Eagles might actually be an NFC dark horse. If Jalen Hurts is any good.
The Eagles essentially fell into the playoffs last year, before being badly exposed by Tampa Bay, who dared Hurts to beat them, holding Philadelphia scoreless through three quarters.
Instead of moving on from Hurts, Philadelphia opted to stack the talent around him; a Super Bowl-ready roster that just needs a quarterback to take them to the next level.
What happens next is largely on Hurts.
San Francisco 49ers
Choosing to keep, rather than trade or waive, Jimmy Garoppolo could be San Francisco’s best move of the offseason.
While all of Kyle Shanahan’s eggs appear to be in the Trey Lance basket, there’s now at least a back-up plan for a team that, once again, is ready to challenge for a Super Bowl.
Garoppolo has proven, when healthy, that he’s a decent enough game manager to get the 49ers to the big dance.
But he’s also come up short in the biggest moments for the Niners; one of the reasons the organisation chose to give up as much as they did for Lance before last season.
Lance was reportedly ‘annoyed’ when San Francisco decided to keep Garoppolo around.
If he can’t rise to the level required to start the season, he’ll be even more annoyed when he’s benched.
Indianapolis Colts
Out goes Carson Wentz. In goes Matt Ryan.
Philip Rivers was satisfactory. Wentz wasn’t. And the Colts will be hoping Ryan can be better than both.
The offence, fortunately, won’t rest solely on Ryan’s shoulders, with the veteran’s task a simple one: don’t make any mistakes, and let Johnathan Taylor, and the defence, take the team to the playoffs.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans fans tasted life without Drew Brees last season. Now, they’ll have to deal without Sean Payton too.
Instead, it’ll be Dennis Allen making the decisions, and for the second season in a row, Jameis Winston making the throws.
There’s a whole lot of buzz around this Saints team, with some suggesting they could even spring an upset in the NFC South and finish ahead of Brady’s Buccaneers.
A lot needs to go right for that to happen.
Miami Dolphins
TuAnon, you’ve got one more shot.
The jury’s still out on Tua Tagovailoa. But we’ll have a verdict after this season, with Miami doing everything they possibly could in the offseason for him to succeed.
In came Tyreek Hill to pair with Jaylen Waddle. Terron Armstead to shore up the offensive line. Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert to add to the backfield.
And most importantly, a Kyle Shanahan disciple in Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins’ new head coach, who is expected to provide some creativity to the offence.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers will start with Mitch Trubisky under centre and might finish the season with rookie Kenny Pickett throwing the ball.
Whatever happens, it’s an upgrade on the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, who made a pretty talented offensive unit look rather ordinary last season.
This time around, it’s the same Pittsburgh defence, with a quarterback that can move and throw well enough to allow the likes of Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, rookie George Pickens, and Najee Harris to go make plays.
It’s easy to forget — I basically did — that Pittsburgh actually made the playoffs last season.
Watch them find a way to do it again.
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos have been ‘a quarterback away’ from contending for what feels like forever.
So, it’s simple: if Russell Wilson is Russell Wilson, then expect Denver to contend this year.
Let’s ride.
NOT QUITE THE SAME
Tennessee Titans
It feels harsh to judge the Titans and Ryan Tannehill on that one post-season game. But when all our suspicions were validated in their Divisional Round defeat against Cincinnati, it felt like a moment the football world drew a line through Tennessee for this season.
AJ Brown was then traded. Offensive linemen Rodger Saffold and David Quessenbury went to Buffalo. And the latest blow was edge rusher Harold Landry tearing his ACL.
Derrick Henry finally proved mortal last season when he missed time with injury, and Tannehill now has rookie quarterback Malik Willis breathing down his neck.
They might prove us wrong, but it’s hard to feel optimistic about the Titans heading into the 2022 season.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas went from overwhelming favourites in the NFC East with bettors to a team many are fading going into the new season.
That’s down to Philadelphia becoming the cool kids on the block. But also, because a typically aggressive Cowboys front office sort of stood still this offseason.
Amari Cooper went out the door. La’el Collins too. And now Tyron Smith is out injured.
Now, one of the most high-powered offences last season looks a little shaky.
The Dallas offensive line isn’t what it used to be, even if a 40-year-old Jason Peters has been brought in to help. Michael Gallup is returning from an ACL injury, and CeeDee Lamb missed the pre-season with injury too.On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys are due for some turnover regression after a monster year; if Trevon Diggs collects another 11 interceptions, I’ll eat my hat.
Dallas could be totally fine. But it’s hard to see how they’ll be better than last year.
New England Patriots
I’m not one to doubt Bill Belichick.
But man, I think I’m doubting Bill Belichick.
New England’s coaching department looks as empty as the vegetable crisper in a college student’s dorm room, there’s still no elite weapon for Mac Jones, and the Patriots will have to deal with Buffalo and Miami in an AFC East that no longer belongs to them.
Arizona Cardinals
If the Cardinals accomplish nothing else this season, they can at least claim the prize for most bizarre offseason narrative.
Kyler Murray. The contract. And the homework clause. You know the one.
Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury have displayed a habit of falling away in the second half of seasons, and that might explain the lack of buzz surrounding Arizona entering the new season.
It doesn’t help that star receiver DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six weeks of the season with a PED suspension.
IS THAT… HOPE?
Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams bailed on Aaron Rodgers. Because man, wouldn’t we all if we had to listen to him talk every day?
Rodgers’ loss is Derek Carr’s gain, with the quarterback now loaded with weapons that include Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow.
Josh McDaniels is in charge now, and his task is to get Las Vegas back to the playoffs after they defied the odds last season to squeeze in.
Their main problem? The AFC West.
Minnesota Vikings
‘New man on the Minnesota Vikings.’
A great Lizzo lyric that basically sums it up: Mike Zimmer is no longer in Minnesota, and now it’s Kevin O’Connell’s turn to try turn Kirk Cousins into a playoff-level quarterback.
O’Connell was the offensive coordinator in Los Angeles last season for the Rams who won the Super Bowl. So, if someone is going to make a Cousins offence work, it’s probably him.
The offensive line is still a question mark, but talent like Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook mitigates that. Minnesota also poached Za’Darius Smith from the Packers and added Jordan Hicks to beef up the defence.
New York Giants
Operation ‘Turn Daniel Jones into Josh Allen’ is underway. Even if it might be futile.
The man behind Allen’s rise, Brian Daboll, is now New York’s head coach. And because of that, Giants fans — including myself — are allowing themselves to feel some sort of optimism heading into the new season.
With Daboll in charge, Saquon Barkley fit again, and two top-10 draft picks in Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal, the Giants should be better than they were last year.
My word, they can’t be much worse.
BAD, BUT FUN
Carolina Panthers
The Baker Mayfield revenge szn is here. And I’m all for it.
This is Matt Rhule’s last chance to make it work in Carolina, and he’s got a quarterback with a point to prove, a healthy Christian McCaffrey and Jaycee Horn, and a new first-round pick in Ikem Ekwonu to bolster the offensive line.
If — and it’s a big if — McCafftrey can stay fit through the season, Carolina shapes to be a fun team who could surprise a few.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta was maybe the ugliest seven-win team in NFL history last season.
They may win fewer games this season, but they should be a whole lot more enjoyable to watch.
Marcus Mariota will start the year under centre, with rookie Desmond Ridder ready to step in if things go south.
But the excitement basically revolves around the weapons on offence, with sophomore tight end Kyle Pitts expected to truly explode in his second year alongside rookie wide receiver Drake London.
Oh, and who knows what Cordarrelle Patterson can do this year.
Arthur Smith is a good coach, the offence is fun, and the defence is bad enough that the Falcons should be in their fair share of shootouts.
Detroit Lions
Detroit was already getting buzz. And then fans watched Hard Knocks.
Now, you’d have to be a rival NFC North fan to root against Dan Campbell and the Lions.
After one of the most impressive three-win seasons in recent memory last season, Detroit is expected to make a far bigger splash this time around.
Jacksonville Jaguars
With a coach who definitely knows who Aaron Donald is, things should look a little different in Jacksonville this year.
The Urban Meyer experience is over, Doug Pederson is in control, and Trevor Lawrence might actually stand a chance of living up to the hype.
Houston Texans
Davis Mills was frisky, at times, last year. Rookie running back Dameon Pearce looks fun. And Houston should play hard for Lovie Smith.
But with a strong QB draft class coming, and the franchise anything but committed to Mills under centre, don’t expect the Texans to rack up many wins this season.
BAD, AND NO FUN
New York Jets
It always starts with hope.
Then, gradually, things go wrong.
The Jets were given their flowers after a draft that seemed to hit all the right notes.
But then Mekhi Becton went down, followed by Zach Wilson, and suddenly all that optimism has turned to despair; a feeling all too familiar for Jets fans.
Wilson should be back in Week 4. But for now, it’s Joe Flacco leading an improved Jets roster into the new season.
First up, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Gulp.
Washington Commanders
We can pretend to care about this mess of an organisation. But really, for most of us, Washington’s 2022 campaign will be about one thing: Carson Wentz.
After being thrown out of Indianapolis for his Week 17 capitulation against Jacksonville, Wentz has one more chance to prove he belongs as a starter in the NFL.
In theory, he should be an upgrade on Taylor Heinicke. And in theory, having both Terry McLaurin and rookie Jahan Dotson should mean Washington’s offence poses a bit more of a threat.
Ron Rivera’s defence inexplicably no-showed last season, but should be better too.
Still, it’s Washington and Wentz. No.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks’ decision to enter the 2022 season with Geno Smith as the starting quarterback is one NFL fans have now absorbed, but something that still doesn’t really make any sense.
It’s Pete Carroll time in Seattle with Russell Wilson out the door. His first act? Start a back-up quarterback, with his only other option being Drew Lock.
Someone make it make sense.
Seattle will be bad. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will be wasted. But hey, let Carroll cook, I suppose.
Chicago Bears
At what point would Justin Fields be within his right to sue the Bears for professional negligence? My word.
Fields’ talent isn’t really up for debate. His offensive line certainly is, though. As are his weapons.
Chicago watched Fields get squashed for most of last season, and decided to do it again as they drafted two defensive players, before taking a 25-year-old receiver in the third round.
Good luck, Justin.
NOT WORTH TALKING ABOUT
Cleveland Browns
The decision to trade for Deshaun Watson, and then hand him the biggest deal in NFL history, before the quarterback’s legal issues had even been properly dealt with tells you all you need to know about the Cleveland Browns organisation, and the people who run it.
Watson is guaranteed more money than any player who will step foot on the field this year. But he’s not allowed to take part until Week 12 after 24 women filed civil lawsuits against him for sexual misconduct.
Remember when the Browns were a feel-good story?
