Sydney and Essendon are sitting in the premiership window box seat after five rounds, with a trio of Melbourne-based clubs not far behind.
Statistics show of the last 17 premiers, 15 of those have sat in the top six for both offence and defence – and that is where both the Swans and Bombers currently rank.
Just outside of that top six loom Melbourne, Collingwood and St Kilda while there’s big concerns for the Western Bulldogs who are currently ranked 17th in the premiership window.
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SEE THE FULL PREMIERSHIP WINDOW RANKINGS BELOW
Alarmingly, no premier in the past 17 years has come from below the defensive top six in worrying signs for Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane who have shown firepower up forward.
Only the Western Bulldogs (2016) and Richmond (2017) have won flags without sitting in the top six offensive stats – but they still ranked top six defensively.
As it stands, if that defensive premiers trend were to continue, there’s seven teams in the race – Sydney, Essendon, Collingwood, St Kilda, Carlton and Richmond/Fremantle who are tied for points allowed.
WHERE YOU WANT TO BE
“If you’re an Essendon fan, right now you’re rapt,” On the Couch host Garry Lyon said.
“Offensively and defensively you’re going really well.
“If you’re a Collingwood fan or a St Kilda fan, you’re not too far away. Defensively really sound, offensively not quite there.
“Melbourne, the number one offensively team in the competition, but just sitting outside the top six from a defensive point of view.
“Crows are going well, can score, got to get better at defence.
“We know the Cats can always score.
“The Lions are in there, but they need to get better at defending.”
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WHERE YOU DON’T WANT TO BE
“The Western Bulldogs, we all think it’s a pretty powerful and potent offensive team, but they sit here at number 17 for offence,” Lyon lamented.
Fellow panellist Jonathan Brown conceded it was a “long way back” for the Bulldogs after the start to the season, given they aren’t ranking well in offence or defence.
Nathan Buckley was concerned the club had put all their eggs in the talls basket.
“The Bulldogs spent all their biccies on talls, mainly in front of the ball,” he said.
“The Bulldogs have been criticised for not having enough keys – either in front or behind. Now they’ve got a plethora of them … right now there’s too much gap between (captain Marcus) Bontempelli and the next guys which makes him an easy target to knock him over, tag him and hit him hard.”
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SAINTS GO MARCHING IN
The Saints are ranked as the number defensive team in the competition, with Collingwood hot on their heels.
“St Kilda are a great running team. They get huge numbers to every contest,” Brown praised.
“They’ll spread quickly from the contest, Brad Hill starting to work his way back into good football.
“There’s a lack of time and space.”
Buckley praised both St Kilda and Collingwood’s pressure game off the back of “really good structure”.
“I think they balance up pressure on the ball with having great balance in their defence to go and outmark and intercept and go the other way,” he said.
“We’ve seen both of these sides, and (Magpies coach) Craig McRae described it as there was nowhere to move. Basically described it as pressure packed and that’s the type of football you need to get used to against the best defensive sides.”
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WHO FLIPPED THE SCRIPT
Statistics show Richmond have completely turned the tide on their playing profile in 2023.
“This year Richmond has flipped their profile. Last year they outscored everyone, they got scored against,” Brown said.
“This year, they’ve been harder to score against but they can’t score themselves.”
The Tigers are clinging to a decent spot in the premiership window, as they rank equal with Fremantle for points allowed.
WHERE TO PRIORITISE
Nathan Buckley says sides sitting on the premiership window fence need to make defence the priority.
With the past 17 premiers ranked inside the top 6 for that stat, Buckley said he liked where Carlton were sitting after five rounds.
“If you’ve got a priority, got to get your defence in the top six to give yourself a chance,” he said.
“I like where Carlton are, I think they’ve really worked on their defensive profile and the fact they’re above that line is a great sign.
“We know, until the weekend they hadn’t lost a game of footy.
“They’ve really solidified their defensive structures. It’s just a matter of getting their balance right. They’ve lost a bit of their stoppage DNA.”
Stats show the Blues are ranked 12th in clearance differential this season – down from 2nd in 2022, and 15th in points from clearances – down from 4th.
“Right now they are not only run of the mill (as a midfield), they are going backwards,” Lyon lamented.
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PREMIERSHIP WINDOW RANKINGS AFTER FIVE ROUNDS
Almost all AFL premiers ranked in top six in both categories
POINTS SCORED
1. Melbourne
2. Adelaide
3. Geelong
=4. Essendon
=4. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Collingwood
8. St Kilda
9. Port Adelaide
10. Fremantle
11. GWS Giants
12. West Coast
13. Carlton
14. North Melbourne
15. Richmond
16. Gold Coast
17. Western Bulldogs
18. Hawthorn
POINTS ALLOWED
1. St Kilda
2. Sydney
3. Essendon
4. Collingwood
5. Carlton
=6. Fremantle
=6. Richmond
8. Melbourne
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Geelong
11. GWS Giants
12. Adelaide
13. Brisbane
14. Port Adelaide
15. Gold Coast
16. North Melbourne
17. Hawthorn
18. West Coast
