Many Carlton fans groaned upon learning that Mitch McGovern had suffered calf tightness during the warm-up on Thursday night and would be a late scratching at the Adelaide Oval.
The Blues were facing a primed Adelaide team at a ground where Carlton have lost all seven of their games against the Crows or Port Adelaide. They were not in stellar form, either, having scraped home against the Giants – assisted by a timely free for dissent – and then struggled for a half against a Kangaroos outfit that was without their two key defenders on Good Friday.
The Blues had little margin for mishap and there was something awfully predictable about McGovern’s injury at this critical moment, when Michael Voss’s team had established a platform to make the leap from fringe finals team to genuine top six or even top four contenders.
Carlton’s dismembering by a greatly improved Adelaide – the result shaped by the first 15 minutes of utter Crow domination – exposed the significant issues facing the Blues in a season in which finals should be the bare minimum given their top-end talent and trajectory.
The Blues have three overlapping problems that need redress if they are to finally end two decades of mediocrity and contend. These are: the lack of pace in the midfield; over-reliance on their key forward duo and – as underscored by McGovern’s injury – the large group of players, three highly paid, who are forever injured.
Mitch McGovern.Credit: Getty Images
Adelaide exposed Carlton’s pace deficit in the midfield – a weakness that the Blues know all about and as yet have been unable to repair in trades. While the drafting of Ollie Hollands will help Carlton’s running capacity, he is a first-year player and won’t make a serious impact until next year at best.
Zac Williams, a costly free agent from Greater Western Sydney, was supposed to bring outside speed to a midfield that has been defined by inside bulls, headed by Patrick Cripps, Matthew Kennedy and George Hewett. Alas, Williams (knee reconstruction) won’t play this year and is only a half-back flanker, not a mid.
Adam Cerra is a talented footballer, but no grass-burner. And while the outstanding Sam Walsh is the club’s best runner, he has little support in that department. There is no one akin to Sydney’s Chad Warner or Collingwood’s Jack Crisp – quick and powerful runners – in the Carlton midfield.
The Blues lack pace, yet brought back Blake Acres – who opened poorly and then improved – with one-paced, flint-hard Kennedy.
If Carlton’s midfield mix has an overload of bulls and too few gazelles, the Adelaide demolition also highlighted those other problems.
The excessive reliance on Curnow and McKay was particularly notable against a Crows side whose greatest asset is their diverse, multi-threat attack, in which Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty, Riley Thilthorpe, Izak Rankine and Josh Rachelle offer different styles.
Outside Curnow and McKay, there is no reliable goal source. Jesse Motlop has the makings of a dangerous small forward, eventually. Corey Durdin isn’t at the level yet. Jack Silvagni’s toil cannot be criticised, but he doesn’t draw the ball in this Curnow-McKay-centric attack.
Jack Martin could be a nice foil for Curnow and McKay if he ever a) played with sufficient regularity and b) played with consistency as a consequence. Martin has never been fit enough for long enough.
Williams came on a six-year deal worth close to $800,000 a season. He’s missed 26 of 47 games since he crossed to Carlton (two because of suspension). McGovern has been unavailable for 30 of those 47 matches since 2021, while Martin has been out for 21 games and counting. Martin cost the Blues about $3 million on a massively front-ended five-year contract.
McGovern, too, came on a five-year deal that expires this year. And if Marchbank cost much less, he’s played even less. He’s been available for just eight of those 47 games. Ditto for the forgotten David Cuningham, who’s been out of contention for 38 of the 47 games.
Sam Philp, pick 20 in the 2019 draft and possessed of genuine speed, is on the inactive list with a foot stress fracture and has had a wretched run. Brodie Kemp, recovered from a knee reconstruction but unable to break into the current side, is another frustration.
Add the developing kids who aren’t up to AFL level yet and it’s evident that Carlton are picking from a heavily reduced squad, well short of the 30 “bona-fide” players that the club’s triple-premiership coach David Parkin reckoned necessary to win a flag.
Carlton are a team with fantastic foundations in terms of key positions and ball-winners. But it will be hard for the Blues to graduate with deep September honours if they can’t fix the problems of insufficient pace and player availability. At season’s end, tough calls will be necessary.
