Gather Round kicks off with a huge clash between two finals contenders. Yes two.
Because at this (very early) stage of the season, all signs point to the Adelaide Crows – who finished among the bottom five clubs in the previous three consecutive seasons – having a profile and style that can match it with the AFL’s best teams.
Few before the season started would’ve predicted the Crows-Blues clash on Thursday night to be one of the must-watch matches of Gather Round. Even fewer would’ve predicted Matthew Nicks’ men to make this year’s finals series – in fact no Fox Footy pundits tipped the Crows would feature in September.
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But as dual premiership Kangaroo David King told the Fox Footy Podcast this week in a cameo appearance: “Don’t snooze on the Crows … they’re coming and coming hard.”
The Crows after four rounds sit seventh on the ladder with a 2-2 record. If they’d kick more accurately in their two losses to the Giants (12.18) and Tigers (10.16), they’d arguably be closer to 3-1 or even 4-0.
Their wins over Port Adelaide and Fremantle were breathtaking. But if Adelaide can knock off Carlton, you suspect more believers will jump on the bandwagon.
Most pundits believe Melbourne and Collingwood have already emerged as the clear top two premiership favourites. But if you were doing an AFL power rankings, third spot would be tough to decipher.
Some experts would say the third-best team now is St Kilda, simply because Ross Lyon’s troops haven’t lost a game yet and have a strong defensive identity. Others would say the Blues, who also haven’t lost a game but were lucky to escape with a draw in Round 1, or even Brisbane, which beat the Demons and Magpies at home but had poor away losses against Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs.
But the stats show the Crows deserve to be in the conversation.
Champion Data uses a ‘core four’ system to determine how strong and sustainable a club’s on-field brand is. The four statistical categories are: Ball movement, defending ball movement, clearance differential and post-clearance contested possession differential.
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According to the core four, Melbourne and Collingwood are well ahead of the rest of the competition. Adelaide, though, sits third and leads the chasing peloton pack.
The Crows are ranked second for ball movement, third for post-clearance contested possessions, sixth for clearance and 11th for defending ball movement. Their core four profile is the third-best in the AFL.
“They (Melbourne and Collingwood) are the top two by panels … but the Adelaide Crows come up really high on everything,” King said.
King has previously said he’s a massive fan of Matthew Nicks and that he has all the coaching traits to lead the Crows to finals success.
The Crows have remained patient with – and loyal to – Nicks over his first few years in charge while the wins haven’t flowed. But now this young group is beginning to put it together on the field, Nicks’ strong system is paying dividends.
And the players are clearly behind Nicks, which is personified by the workrate of the club’s high half-forwards across the first few rounds.
Adelaide’s list choices, too, are finally starting to pay off, particularly with the players they’ve acquired to play forward of centre.
Riley Thilthorpe (Pick 2) and Luke Pedlar (Pick 11), who were taken by the Crows with their first two selections in the 2020 draft, showed excellent form in the Showdown win over Port Adelaide, booting eight goals between them.
Max Michalanney – the Crows’ father-son pick from the first round of the 2022 draft – has also played with maturity beyond his years as a key defender across his first four games.
And then there’s Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine, who’ve brought an exciting dynamic to the Crows’ forward half.
After closely monitoring Rankine’s progress across 48 games in three seasons with the Suns, the Crows last year pounced with a blockbuster trade centred around the club’s Pick 5 that landed the gifted forward-midfielder they had long coveted.
Four rounds into the season and Rankine sits equal-fourth on the Coleman Medal table – only Jeremy Cameron has had more shots at goal than Rankine – while he also sits seventh for score involvements and inside 50 disposals.
Nicks supports Rankine through abuse | 01:19
Rachele, who was taken with Pick 6 in the 2021 draft, is showing just how dynamic he can be as a ‘striker’, causing chaos close to goal then winning centre bounce clearances.
“We need to celebrate what Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine have done for this football club this season. What they’ve been able to produce on the field has no doubt led to Adelaide’s success so far,” dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna told Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“What’s the most impressive thing about these two is with forwards and winning games, you think you get on the end of it. But these two guys have actually been the generators of their (Adelaide’s) performances.
“I think it’s fascinating the impact these two are having on the football club. When the Crows can break even through the midfield and get some supply, these two are dynamite.”
Montagna pointed out that Rachele was the second-highest rated mid-forward in the competition – behind Demons superstar Christian Petracca – while he was also Adelaide’s best centre bounce player.
“He’s a second-year player, Rachele. We’re giving Nick Daicos a lot of credit – and so we should – but what he’s doing for his second year, along with Rankine, has transformed this Crows team,” he said.
“They’re playing with a bit of swagger.”
Eight-time All-Australian Nathan Buckley added: “The thing that stands out is the way they carry themselves … a little bit of arrogance and confidence and they’re backing that up with consistent workrate and effort. When you match talent with that, that’s a dangerous combination.”
The big question mark on Adelaide is around the talent and inside ball-winning ability of its midfield.
Rory Laird is a gun, but there’s a chasm between him and the next best midfielder, which is Rory Sloane, who hasn’t been at as many centre bounces this season.
Perhaps new skipper Jordan Dawson is the answer.
In Adelaide’s past two wins, Dawson has had his best two contested possession tallies: 13 against Fremantle and 12 against Port Adelaide when he won the Showdown Medal.
The Crows gave up a first-round pick to acquire Dawson, who arrived at the club as one of the league’s most versatile flankers. But few Adelaide fans would’ve predicted the left-footer to become their next big-bodied midfielder.
“Jordan Dawson going into the midfield has been a masterstroke the last two weeks … He’s maybe the big midfielder they’ve been craving. He’s been awesome,” Montagna said.
The Crows on Thursday night will face a significant test against one of the best on-ball brigades in the competition.
Blues welcome back star man Sam Walsh | 01:03
How Laird, Dawson and co fare against the likes of Patrick Cripps, Matthew Kennedy, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra and George Hewett will be fascinating.
But match the Blues – or any contending team this season – at the coalface and Crows fans have every right to dream big.
“We know they’ve got the talent in the front half – and that is a threat for the competition when they get the ball down there – but if they can break even through the midfield and win groundball and clearance, they are going to challenge most teams in the competition,” Montagna said.
