Why are our two biggest Super Rugby clubs struggling, asked Georgina Robinson in The Sydney Morning Herald last month.
The short answer is: tradition.
Of course, there is a bit of gallows humour there, but history tells us there is more than an element of truth to it, particularly for Queensland.
In 2004, the Reds finished 10th out of 12; in 2005 they were 10th out of 12; in 2006 they were 12th out of 14; in 2007 they were 14th out of 14, in 2008 they were 12th out of 13, in 2009 they were 13th out of 14 … and on we go.
The Waratahs have a happier record, but ask any NSW fan and they’ll tell you they’ve had some very lean years. One Super Rugby title for such a proud rugby state does not scream overachievement.
This context can help us address the fundamental question: why do Australian Super Rugby clubs struggle?
Jake Gordon and Waratahs teammates looking dejected after the game against the Chiefs.Credit: Getty Images
There are various theories, and two of the most common are the expansion to five Super Rugby clubs (therefore diluting the player pool), and the loss of players overseas. Let’s add a third: a painful lack of coach and player development and the Rugby World Cup hosting myth. We’ll come back to this critical issue later.
No one should dismiss any of these theories outright, but instead give them weight on merit.
The expansion argument, for example, seems like it makes sense, but as the historical results above show, the Reds were struggling just fine by themselves before the introduction of the Force in 2006.
Also, how do you explain the Rebels’ introduction in 2011 and the titles for the Reds in 2011 and the Waratahs in 2014? It may also seem remarkable now, but the five Australian clubs either won or drew 50 per cent of their games against New Zealand opposition in 2013.
James Slipper in action for the Wallabies against Argentina during the 2015 Rugby World Cup semi-final. Credit: AP
So, what is going on? There is the 2015 cliff-face theory, when Super Rugby performances suddenly dropped after that year’s World Cup.
In 2016, in the 10-team Australasian conference, the Brumbies were second, the Waratahs were sixth, and the Rebels, Force and Reds were eighth, ninth and 10th.
In 2017, the Brumbies were second, and the Force, Reds, Waratahs and Rebels were seventh, eighth, ninth and 10th.
This is a dramatic decline from prior seasons, and this is where the loss of players overseas comes into it.
It’s actually not a startling exodus – many of the Wallabies’ 2015 World Cup squad were playing in Australia again in 2016 – but with Japan growing increasingly hungry for players, there was a hollowing out of the overall player base.
So, expansion is not responsible for the struggles, per se, but when it is mixed with player movement, it becomes an issue.
The third element is coach and player development, and the World Cup hosting myth.
France head coach Fabien Galthie.Credit: PA
By 2016, all of those 10-year-olds inspired by watching the Wallabies host the World Cup in 2003 should have been flooding into the system, right?
It’s not that simple. In fact, so-called tier-one countries who host World Cups tend to regress in the following decade.
You’d struggle to find a New Zealander who would argue that Kiwi rugby and the All Blacks weren’t weaker in 2021 than in 2011, when they hosted the RWC.
England? Even worse. They held it in 2015 and have subsequently seen two Premiership clubs go under, while players in their struggling Test side agitate for moves to France and Japan.
France? They were so bad in the decade after 2007 that they were humiliated 62-13 by the All Blacks at the 2015 RWC. Their renaissance has been recent, after a peace deal between the union and the clubs, and the appointment of coach Fabien Galthie in 2019.
There is no automatic legacy or dividend from hosting a RWC, at least in the men’s game, so be wary of anyone who tells you otherwise.
Instead, player and coach development is hard, laborious work – only the Brumbies have shown a consistent ability to get it right.
But there is some better news, at least in the short term. The lure of the British and Irish series in 2025 is clearly having a positive effect on players’ decisions about their future.
The broken UK market has also reduced the “pull” factor, and more talent is staying in Australia.
Remember the 50 per cent statistic in 2013? It came as Australian players were busting a gut in Super Rugby to make the Wallabies squad to face the Lions.
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