Changing of the guard as Ponga concern prompts switch: Way-too-early predicted Maroons side

It’s been one of the most competitive starts to a NRL season in history which means the fight for State of Origin jerseys is already heating up.

Queensland coach Billy Slater and his New South Wales counterpart Brad Fittler will name their squads for game one in just under eight weeks time.

Debate has already begun over several positions and based on the first four rounds, several players are in line to lose their spots.

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Foxsports.com.au has put together a form guide for the contenders in each position, and has predicted who will wear the prestigious jerseys in 2023.

Here is our way-too-early Queensland Maroons side ahead of the series opener in Adelaide on May 31.

FULLBACK

Incumbent: Kalyn Ponga

Predicted 2023 fullback: Reece Walsh

Analysis: Knights superstar Kalyn Ponga goes to another level when he pulls on a Maroons jersey and last year delivered a man-of-the-match performance in the series decider. Ponga was the difference as he scored a try, ran for 247 metres and produced 15 tackle breaks. However, a fourth concussion in 10 months in Round 2 has sidelined the playmaker who travelled to Canada last week to meet with a specialist. We don’t believe Ponga will be back to his devastating best by the time Origin rolls around which means Broncos sensation Reece Walsh will wear the No. 1 jersey. Walsh was picked to become Queensland’s youngest player in 26 years, as an 18-year-old in 2021, but a hamstring injury just days before Game II ruled him out. Walsh has been in sublime touch in Brisbane’s unbeaten start to the season and will be rewarded with a Maroons debut. Dolphins star recruit Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who played Origin in 2021, has also enjoyed a strong start to the season and Gold Coast’s AJ Brimson is a contender, but we have Walsh ahead at the moment.

WINGERS

Incumbents: Selwyn Cobbo, Xavier Coates (Game I), Murray Taulagi (Game II) and Corey Oates (Game III)

Predicted 2023 wingers: Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates

Analysis: It took just 28 minutes for Xavier Coates’ 2022 Origin campaign to be over with the Storm winger suffering a high ankle sprain in Game I. Cowboys gun Murray Taulagi slotted into his place over then-teammate Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, before he was ruled out of Game III with Covid. Corey Oates came in for the decider but he broke his jaw in Brisbane’s first game of the season which could see him struggle to retain his spot, despite a strong 2022 club campaign which saw him bag 20 tries. Taulagi is also racing the clock to be fit for the series opener following an MCL injury and it’s unlikely he’ll get enough minutes in his legs to be considered for selection for Game I, which opens the door for Storm winger Coates to return. Broncos flyer Selwyn Cobbo enjoyed a strong debut series before he suffered an ugly head knock in the opening minutes of Game III – he’ll be the first winger picked this year.

CENTRES

Incumbents: Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai

Predicted 2023 centres: Valentine Holmes and Dane Gagai

Analysis: Queenslanders pick and stick and this year will be no different. There was plenty of chatter around Knights veteran Dane Gagai’s place in the team heading into the series decider last year after some poor defensive work in the first two games. But Slater stuck solid and Gagai repaid the faith with a strong showing in the decider. The 32-year-old has played 21 games for Queensland since debuting in 2015 and will line up for the Maroons again this year. Cowboys star Valentine Holmes is one of the NRL’s best outside backs and started for Australia on the wing in the World Cup final last November, being a sharpshooter off the tee. Holmes played a key role in North Queensland’s resurgence as premiership contenders in 2022 and is another automatic selection for Slater.

FIVE-EIGHTH

Incumbent: Cameron Munster (Game I and II), Tom Dearden (Game III)

Predicted 2023 five-eighth: Cameron Munster

Analysis: An untimely bout of Covid cost Storm star Cameron Munster his spot in the 2022 decider, but Cowboys young gun Tom Dearden stepped in with aplomb. Dearden set up the first try of Game III and more than held his own in the Origin pressure cooker. But the Queensland No. 6 jersey belongs to Munster for as long as he wants it. On his day, the talisman is unplayable with the ability to create something out of nothing and a running game that is second to none.

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HALFBACK

Incumbent: Daly Cherry-Evans

Predicted 2023 halfback: Daly Cherry-Evans

Analysis: He may be 34, but Daly Cherry-Evans is showing no signs of slowing down and has 19 Origins under his belt to date. The Sea Eagles halfback was one of Queensland’s best in 2022 and pulled the strings in the decider with over 600 kick metres.

LOCK

Incumbent: Reuben Cotter (Game I), Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Game II), Patrick Carrigan (Game III)

Predicted 2023 lock: Pat Carrigan

Analysis: Broncos star Patrick Carrigan won the 2022 Wally Lewis Medal, despite playing off the bench in the first two games. It saw him picked in the Kangaroos World Cup squad and came off the bench as Australia beat Samoa in the final. Carrigan will be one of Slater’s first players picked in 2023. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Reuben Cotter provide injury cover, while Eels recruit J’maine Hopgood, but he’ll need to bide his time for now.

SECOND ROWERS

Incumbents: Kurt Capewell, Felise Kaufusi (Game I and II), Jeremiah Nanai (Game III)

Predicted 2023 second rowers: Kurt Capewell and Jeremiah Nanai

Analysis: Kurt Capewell has become a mainstay of the Maroons over the last three seasons, with his silky smooth skills complementing a strong running game. Capewell pulls the strings in attack while his second row partner in crime, Felise Kaufusi, levels blokes in defence. Storm-turned-Dolphins enforcer Kaufusi missed the decider last year to be by his sick father’s bedside in the US and was replaced by Cowboys young gun Jeremiah Nanai. The booming backrower is a try-scoring machine, having scored 20 in his 30 North Queensland appearances since making his debut in 2021. Nanai’s time has come to earn the starting spot, with Kaufusi adding impact off the bench by laying out tired Blues players. Titans wrecking ball David Fifita hasn’t played Origin since 2021 but he’s enjoyed a strong start to the NRL season and could earn a spot on the bench. Rabbitohs gun Jai Arrow played Games II and III off the bench last year but could be the odd man out in 2023 with Queensland enjoying an embarrassment of riches in the forwards. Dolphins star recruit Tom Gilbert made his Maroons debut in Game III last year and has enjoyed stellar starts to 2023, but could also be squeezed out.

HOOKER

Incumbent: Ben Hunt

Predicted 2023 hooker: Bent Hunt

Analysis: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Slater went with the one-two punch in 2022 of starting Bent Hunt and playing Harry Grant off the bench and then Kangaroos coach Mal Meninga used the same tactic at the World Cup, which Australia won. Bulldogs recruit Reed Mahoney was picked in the Maroons’ 2021 squad but didn’t play and will need injuries to earn his debut this year.

PROPS

Incumbents: Josh Papalii, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Game I), Lindsay Collins (Game II and III),

Predicted 2023 props: Josh Papalii and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

Analysis: Storm skipper Christian Welch (achilles) missed the entire 2022 series which opened the door for Roosters enforcer Lindsay Collins. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui wore the No. 8 jersey in Game I before moving to lock in Game II after Reuben Cotter (hamstring) went down. It saw Collins slot into the front row for the final two games of the series, but we’re tipping him to be shifted to the bench this year, likewise Welch. Raiders veteran Josh Papalii started all three games last year and although he’s made just one NRL appearance this season, his experience can’t be overstated and his name will be one of the first on Slater’s team sheet.

Queensland Maroons predicted side:

1. Reece Walsh

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Valentine Holmes

4. Dane Gagai

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Daly Cherry-Evans

8. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

9. Ben Hunt

10. Josh Papalii

11. Jeremiah Nanai

12. Kurt Capewell

13. Pat Carrigan

14. Harry Grant

15. Reuben Cotter

16. Lindsay Collins

17. Felise Kaufusi

2022 players predicted to miss out in 2023: Kalyn Ponga, Tom Gilbert, Jai Arrow, Tom Dearden, Corey Oates, Xavier Coates.

Capped Maroons in contention but also set to miss out: David Fifita, Christian Welch and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

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