Premier League without VAR: Liverpool 6 points above relegation, Man Utd out of top four

Premier League without VAR: Liverpool 6 points above relegation, Man Utd out of top four

The 2022-23 Premier League season is just past the halfway point, 199 games old, and it’s fair to say it’s been a season to forget for Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool. But it could have been a lot worse if they hadn’t had a series of key VAR decisions go in their favour.

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Liverpool have seen four goals disallowed for their opponents by the VAR, more than any other club, and two of those came at crucial times and were potentially result-changing; the Reds were also awarded a goal when 2-0 down in a game they went on to draw.

Last season, our VAR Effect Table showed that Arsenal would have qualified for the Champions League in place of arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur if it hadn’t been for VAR. The Gunners have more points without VAR this season too, and would actually still be on course to emulate the “Invincibles” of 2003-04 with an unbeaten record. But they are no longer five points clear of Manchester City at the summit.

Like we did last season, we’re looking at all VAR decisions across the Premier League, and seeing how they might have affected the outcome of games.

It’s not just about the number of times a team gets a favourable VAR call or about how many goals are affected. What’s more important is when these VAR decisions take place and, crucially, whether that impact would ultimately have changed the final score.

Crucially, we’re not saying the VAR decisions were wrong — we’re just looking at what might have happened if the video assistant didn’t exist and the original decisions stood.