Arsenal are top of the Premier League at the midway point of the season and are on pace to reach 100 points, equalling the highest-ever points total in the league. At the rate they’re going, they’ll pass last year’s points total before the end of March. It’s a remarkable feat for a side that had not finished in the top four since 2016, and it marks a steady progression under Mikel Arteta: eighth to fifth to first.
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Yet while he and the players are, rightly, getting tons of plaudits and will likely be rewarded with contracts and bonuses, the Kroenkes, who own the club, might want to consider a bonus pot for another part of their staff: the sports science, fitness, medical and physiotherapy teams. Because, simply put, where Arsenal are now is astounding and near unprecedented.
This is, by some distance, the most settled starting lineup in the league. Seven players have started every single game this season. Of the others, Martin Odegaard has missed one, Thomas Partey three and Gabriel Jesus (who is out injured) five. Oleksandr Zinchenko also had a significant spell out injured, missing eight starts. All told, the 11 players who have started the most games for Arsenal this season have started 91.9% of their matches, making them the most settled side in the league.
(Explaining the table: “Players” refers to the number that started every PL game this season, “Total starts” refers to total starts by the 11 most frequent starters divided by total possible starts, and “%” refers to the percentage of all total starts by the 11 most frequent starters)
What does this “settled team” metric tell us? For one, they’ve largely avoided injury and Arteta was happy enough with their performances that he saw no need to tinker with the team. And, perhaps as a result, they’ve developed plenty of chemistry and cohesion.
Obviously, having a “settled team” does not necessarily correlate with success. Everton are the seventh most “settled team” in the league and they have the fewest points in the table and have just sacked their manager, Frank Lampard. It’s also worth considering that this isn’t some “holy grail” of a metric, because there are factors well beyond your control.
Sometimes players are injured going into the season or they arrive at the end of the transfer window when the season has already started or they leave in January, all of which impacts the numbers. Some, like Gabriel Jesus, get hurt on international duty. Some managers may choose to rotate and rest players more than others — particularly if they’re involved in European competitions like the Champions League — have a deep squad or simply like to adjust their team to their next opponent, hoping to gain an edge. Manchester City, who clock in at 77.7% — below the league average (78.7%) — are an obvious example of this.
And, most of all, this is a physical sport in which impact injuries can happen at any time. While there are experts out there who will tell you that you can cut down on soft-tissue injuries if you know what you’re doing, they too can be unpredictable. There’s definitely an element of luck and statistical variance in this and, viewed from the outside without access to the players or their medical records, in the vast majority of cases, it’s extremely difficult to say definitively whether an injury could have been avoided. However, as a lagging indicator to help understand a team’s success, there’s value in this.
