A week ago, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson took an unusual step.
It had been over a month since he suffered a sprained PCL in his left knee and more than two weeks since the 26-year-old was supposed to return from that injury.
At least, that is what an initial report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested and yet Jackson was still not on the field, even as the Ravens prepared to begin their playoff push against the Cincinnati Bengals.
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An agent may have convinced Jackson waiting out for a deal like Watson’s was not a wise move. But Jackson is his own agent — and that just makes things all the more complicated. Jackson was willing to take the risk, walking a delicate tightrope where he would arrive at the fifth and final year of his rookie contract without a new deal. “God forbid the wrong thing happens,” the former league MVP said at the time. The wrong thing did happen. But the latest injury hasn’t necessarily hurt Jackson in the end. Instead, it has arguably only given him even more leverage and exposed just how badly Baltimore need him. Since going down injured, the Ravens have only scored more than one touchdown in one of seven games without Jackson. Looking at a bigger sample size, Baltimore ranks as the league’s 10th best offence in EPA per play with Jackson playing over the last two years. The offence plummets to the 30th-best when their franchise quarterback is sidelined. Those damning statistics came courtesy of The Ringer’s Ben Solak, who argued on the ‘Extra Point Taken’ podcast that the Ravens have no one to blame but themselves for Jackson’s contract drama. “This is the exact outcome that you want to avoid,” he said. “When Lamar is on the field this is a top-five offence by DVOA. They did this after trading Marquise Brown away and having first-round receiver Rashod Bateman get hurt. “The plan didn’t work in terms of making the change at wide receiver and they were still a top-five offence by DVOA when Lamar was on the field. Lamar was saving this team. “The offence was working because of Lamar more evidently than the offence had ever worked because of Lamar and the offence had always worked because of Lamar.” Add in one of the league’s best defensive units, only bolstered by the Roquan Smith trade, and all the ingredients are there for a Super Bowl contender. Except when Jackson is injured. Or not on the team entirely, and now the Ravens risk facing that exact reality after refusing to give Jackson what he wanted. Sure, they may be right that the Watson contract is an anomaly. And sure, Jackson may not have taken the leap as a passer that Baltimore was after. But the Ravens also didn’t exactly set him up for success with clear upgrades at wide receiver after trading Brown. “The offence needs Lamar,” Solak said. “He has better hold in leverage and potential than so many others do. It’s going to be so ugly without him.” Of course, there is every chance the Ravens don’t have to do it without him. They have three options if that is the case. The first is simply agreeing to a new deal with Jackson, although that is going to cost them. But that is the brutal lesson to be learned out of this mess according to Solak. “Because of the Watson contract, because of the nature of contracts changing and the landscape changing, it’s going to be a worse deal than you could have signed a year ago and that’s why you just sign the guy,” he said. “Just do it. It’s the most important thing. If you have to sign him to the biggest quarterback contract in the league at the time, you just have to. You’re going to look dumb for six weeks and then someone else is going to sign a bigger deal. You have to do it.” There are two other alternatives, but neither are ideal. The first involves using the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, which means that if he signs with another team the Ravens have the chance to either match that deal or get two first-round picks. Jackson is worth a lot more than that though. Goal line fumble turns into INSANE TD | 00:58 The other option is using the exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, which would keep him in Baltimore on a one-year, $45 million ($A65m) deal. Solak though said that could create more drama. “When Lamar Jackson shows up to training camp and practises on a franchise tag, I’ll fly,” he said. “I’ll eat my hat if that happens. I’d be stunned. With the way this has gone, it’d be shocking. I think if they tag him, I think Lamar holds in and this thing gets gnarly.” It is part of the reason why Sheil Kapadia, a fellow journalist at The Ringer, described the Ravens as “the most interesting offseason team in the NFL” on the same podcast. “It just feels to me like something has to give,” Kapadia said. “I could be wrong, cooler heads might prevail and they run it back next year. But at this point in time and this could be recency bias, you have one playoff win in five years with Lamar, he’s missed 10 games over the past two seasons, you have this squabble over his contract. “I think John Harbaugh is a great coach, is there some staleness there? There are so many things going on with that franchise, which for years felt like just a stable [organisation where] you know what you’re getting with the Ravens, you know what you’re getting when you walk into that building. “Now all of a sudden it feels like chaos has taken over here in the final six weeks. I think they are going to be maybe the story when you look at one team in the NFL.” For now, the Ravens can take solace in the fact Tom Brady is yet to make a decision on his future, somewhat shielding them from the spotlight. There are plenty of other teams who have big decisions to make at quarterback this offseason too. But none have the current ability and potential ceiling that Jackson has and the former MVP’s teammates have already made it clear they want the 26-year-old back in Baltimore, not just next season but long into the future. “You can’t let a guy like him go,” Ravens defensive tackle Calais Campbell said. “I know it’s football and there’s always some new exciting toy, a new exciting kid that has potential to go out there and be great, but (Jackson) is a known. You know Lamar Jackson is an incredible player. “I think it’s in the best interest of the Ravens organisation to give him a long-term contract and make him our guy.” Running back J.K. Dobbins, meanwhile, was even more blunt after the loss to the Bengals as he told reporters the Ravens “would have won” if Jackson was on the field. But one longtime league executive told The Athleticthat the Ravens will “never” give Jackson the “Watson-type contract” he is after. So, does that mean Baltimore could actually trade him? “I see a divorce unless their doctors are privately telling them Lamar really can’t play because of the injury, which seems doubtful with the way Harbaugh has handled it,” the executive added. “I could see a trade next spring if they can get a high enough pick to get a new QB. Lamar appears to have a ceiling that Jalen Hurts poked through this year. Harbaugh is making it seem like they are tired of the situation. “They will never give him the Watson-type contract he reportedly covets.” Neither party may be willing to budge at this stage but soon enough something has to give.
