After their poor start, VfL Wolfsburg were one of the in-form teams just before the break. Based on the same values as above, we should see them finish in the top six instead.
Fight at the bottom
At the other end of the table, Hertha Berlin, FC Augsburg, VfB Stuttgart, VfL Bochum and Schalke 04 all are trying to improve following disappointing first halves of the season.
Stuttgart are difficult to judge as they’ve hired Bruno Labbadia as their new head coach and all their first-half trends and style of play could completely change. Labbadia also has a reputation of saving teams from the drop.
Hertha Berlin have what it takes to not be relegated as they’re defensively stable, which is evidenced in their duels and interceptions statistics. They’re also better than the other aforementioned teams when it comes to big chances and shots on goal. However, they lack quality in chances in general and advancing the ball into the final third, which has scuppered any meaningful consistency in results. They’ll be in the relegation fight for the long run but should not finish lower than the relegation playoff.
Augsburg and Bochum will be the ones primarily fighting between automatic relegation and the relegation playoff. Both teams’ issues are similar: both are in the bottom half of the table for shots on goal, possessions ending in goals and chance creation. Augsburg are better than Bochum when it comes to their intensity, as seen in their higher ranking in duels, aerial duels and high pressures; while Bochum are the stronger team when it comes to possessions ending in shots. Because Augsburg have better quality through the team, they should finish above Bochum in the relegation playoff.
And that leaves Schalke rock bottom. Despite slightly improved statistics since new coach Thomas Reis was appointed at the end of October, they’re still the bottom three in many metrics including goals, shots on goal, getting into the final third, and the list goes on. They may have improved statistically, but they still lost three of the four games under Reis. While he can absolutely get out of relegation, there is nothing in the numbers to suggest that he will.
