What seemed like a risk at the time has since become the norm. In 2017, it appeared barely credible that Real Madrid would pay €45 million to sign a 16-year-old Brazilian who had not played a senior game for his club. In hindsight, it stands as a wonderful piece of transfer business. Vinicius Junior has developed into one of the most dangerous attacking players on the planet, whose goal decided last season’s Champions League final.
The deal seemed like an outlier six years ago, the reaction of a club still smarting on seeing Neymar sign with rivals Barcelona for €86.2m a few years earlier and desperate not to lose out on another Brazilian of exceptional potential. But this type of deal is becoming more common. In 2019, Gabriel Martinelli was acquired by Arsenal for €8m from Ituano, a small club on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, before he had got anywhere near the Brazilian first division. And barely a glance was raised when Real Madrid signed another 16-year-old, Endrick from Palmeiras, for a total of €72m last month.
The major European clubs now want to sign South American talent as early as they can — meaning that they are thoroughly prepared to take a hunch on potential alone. It is a route Chelsea are now following with the €20m signing of 18-year-old Vasco da Gama midfielder Andrey Santos. While he is a less glamorous player than Vinicius or Martinelli, Santos is a well built box-to-box midfielder — a position where Brazilians have found it more difficult to adapt to European football than the wide strikers. This is a huge part of the explanation for signing the players so early; for legal reasons the clubs have to wait until the youngsters turn 18 to bring them over, and the consensus view is that the sooner they come, the better.
European football is quicker and more intense, and this especially impacts central midfielders since the ball moves through their zone of the field much more swiftly. There is less time for the player to decide what to do on the ball, and the European clubs want their players exposed to this reality as soon as possible. There is an obvious template for Santos, that of Douglas Luiz of Aston Villa. Same position and with similar characteristics, both of them made their names helping Vasco win promotion to Brazil’s top flight. Luiz played a handful of games in the first division before Europe came calling, while Santos is going straight from the recently completed second-division campaign to the Premier League — and probably to a loan move.
