For the second consecutive year, the Australian Open has been turned on its head.
Carlos Alcaraz’s withdrawal from the first major of the year may not be totally unsurprising given his injury struggles since winning the US Open, but it remains significant given his tenuous hold on the world No.1 ranking.
While he broke through for his first grand slam at the age of just 19, Alcaraz has not been beyond the third round in his two main draw appearances in Melbourne.
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Oaska still in doubt for Australian Open | 00:31
The rapid improvement Alcaraz has showed thus far in his career indicates he would’ve gone much deeper than the third round in this year’s event, which would’ve resulted in more ranking points and a greater chance of holding onto the coveted top spot.
Instead, his absence leaves the door ajar for a change in the pecking order, with Novak Djokovic potentially a big beneficiary.
Djokovic returning to number one spot at the Australian Open would be tinged with irony, given it was his deportation from the country last January that deprived that event of the then-world No.1 and led to the rankings shake-up that took place throughout 2022.
For Djokovic to reclaim the ranking he has occupied for 373 weeks across his career, two things need to happen.
First, Casper Ruud needs to either lose in Auckland or, if he wins, fail to make the final at the Australian Open; an event where he has never progressed beyond the fourth round.
Secondly, Djokovic must win the Adelaide International and then a 10th Australian Open title.
If Djokovic wins the Adelaide International and Australian Open, he will return to world No.1 unless Casper Ruud wins in Auckland and makes the final at the Australian Open, where he has never progressed beyond the fourth round.
Alcaraz’s withdrawal could also prove a godsend for Rafael Nadal, with the defending Australian Open champion needing all the help he can get judging by recent form.
Nadal’s two losses to Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur at the United Cup have only exacerbated questions about the 36-year-old’s state of body and mind.
While winning two majors in 2022 and going as many as two slams clear of Djokovic and Roger Federer, Nadal has won just four of his last 11 matches.
At Wimbledon, he was forced to withdraw with an abdominal tear and since then has looked well and truly off his historic best.
The withdrawal of his compatriot ensures Nadal will enter the Australian Open as the top seed, which could provide him more time to find his best tennis before coming up against some of the game’s fellow heavyweights.
There’s very little separating the world’s best players, but the injury of Alcaraz may well have stalled the official transition to the next generation of tennis stars, allowing Djokovic and Nadal one more chance to scale the mountain.
