Tuesday’s awful scenes in Cincinnati have thrown a dark cloud over the conclusion of the NFL season – and while the health of Damar Hamlin is everyone’s priority, the show will go on.
There are still several on-field questions hanging over the suspended Bills-Bengals game, including whether the game will be played, how it’ll be adjudicated if it isn’t, and even whether the playoffs could be shifted around a rescheduled fixture.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reported “momentum” was heading towards the game being declared a no contest, with winning percentage used for seeding involving those two teams.
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NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE (AEDT)
Wildcard Round
Sunday January 15 to Tuesday January 17
Divisional Round
Sunday January 22 to Monday January 23
Conference Championships
Monday January 30
Super Bowl LVII
Monday February 13, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
AFC STANDINGS (After Week 17)
1. Kansas City (13-3) [West] – y
2. Buffalo (12-3) [East] – y
3. Cincinnati (11-4) [North] – x
4. Jacksonville (8-8) [South]
5. LA Chargers (10-6) [West] – x
6. Baltimore (10-6) [North] – x
7. New England (8-8) [East]
—
8. Miami (8-8) [East]
9. Pittsburgh (8-8) [North]
11. Tennessee (7-9) [South] (No.10 NY Jets ahead of Titans on tiebreak but eliminated)
Eliminated: NY Jets, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Denver, Houston
y = clinched division, x = clinched playoffs
Predicted Week 1 playoff match-ups
1. Kansas City
7. Miami at 2. Buffalo
6. Baltimore at 3. Cincinnati
5. LA Chargers at 4. Jacksonville
No.1 seed scenarios
if Bills-Bengals not played
CHIEFS win No.1 seed with win over Raiders
BILLS win No.1 seed with Chiefs loss and win over Patriots
if Bills-Bengals played
BILLS win No.1 seed with wins over Bengals, Patriots
CHIEFS win No.1 seed with win over Raiders and a Bills loss
AFC North scenarios
if Bills-Bengals not played
BENGALS win division
if Bills-Bengals played
BENGALS win division with win over Bills or Ravens
RAVENS win division with win over Bengals and Bills def Bengals
AFC South scenarios
Winner of JAGUARS v TITANS wins division
TITANS eliminated with a loss
JAGUARS eliminated with a loss unless Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins all lose in Week 18
AFC East
won by BILLS
AFC West
won by CHIEFS
Wildcard scenarios
CHARGERS and RAVENS locked into playoffs
PATRIOTS win No.7 seed with win over Bills
DOLPHINS win No.7 seed with win over Jets and Bills def Patriots
STEELERS win No.7 seed with win over Browns and Bills def Patriots and Jets def Dolphins
JAGUARS win No.7 seed (if they lose to Titans) with losses by Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers
Rookie keeps Steelers’ season alive | 00:18
NFC STANDINGS (After Week 17)
1. Philadelphia (13-3) [East] – x
2. San Francisco (12-4) [West] – y
3. Minnesota (12-4) [North] – y
4. Tampa Bay (8-8) [South] – y
5. Dallas (11-4) [East] – x
6. NY Giants (9-6-1) [East] – x
8. Seattle (8-8) [West]
—
8. Detroit (8-8) [North]
9. Green Bay (8-8) [North]
Eliminated: Washington, New Orleans, Carolina, LA Rams, Atlanta, Arizona, Chicago
y = clinched division, x = clinched playoffs
Predicted Week 1 playoff match-ups
1. Philadelphia BYE
7. Green Bay at 2. San Francisco
6. NY Giants at 3. Minnesota
5. Dallas at 4. Tampa Bay
No.1 seed scenarios
EAGLES win No.1 seed with win over Giants OR losses by Cowboys, 49ers
49ERS win No.1 seed with win over Cardinals and Giants def Eagles
COWBOYS win No.1 seed with win over Commanders and losses by Eagles, 49ers
NFC East scenarios
EAGLES win division with win over Giants
COWBOYS win division with win over Commanders and Giants def Eagles
NFC North
won by VIKINGS
NFC West
won by 49ERS
NFC South
won by BUCCANEERS
Wildcard scenarios
COWBOYS and GIANTS locked into playoffs
PACKERS win No.7 seed with win over Lions
SEAHAWKS win No.7 seed with win over Rams and Lions def Packers
LIONS win No.7 seed with win over Packers and Rams def Seahawks
WOOF! Nixon goes 105 yards in unreal TD | 01:07
WHO ARE THE SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS?
Across the course of the season seven true contenders have developed – three from the NFC and four from the AFC.
First, the latter, which has been remarkably similar to last year with Buffalo, Kansas City and Cincinnati looking like the class of the conference – while advanced stats also give Baltimore plenty of respect.
Either the Bills or Chiefs will earn the No.1 seed (the status of Bills-Bengals, and whether it’ll be played, will play a heavy part in the race) and several advantages.
Not only will they get the lone bye week, and hosting rights for the conference title game if they get there, but they’ll also avoid the more dangerous divisional match-up. Assuming the Chiefs finish No.1 as currently expected, they could face the Jaguars or Chargers in the divisional round, while the Bills could cop the dangerous Bengals.
The Ravens, potentially the No.6 seed, would be dangerous for the No.1 seed as well but that assumes Lamar Jackson returns and gets back to his best – something we’ve rarely seen from him once the regular season ends.
Football Outsiders’ all-encompassing DVOA metric has the Bills as the best team across the course of the season, with the No.2 offence and No.4 defence. The Chiefs are No.5 but improving, their issue as always being their defence (ranked No.23) over the offence (No.1).
The Bengals have also gotten better in recent months with Joe Burrow and the offence (No.4) limiting turnovers and getting improved protection from the offensive line, while the defence (No.12) is good if not great.
Whoever comes out of the 4-5 match-up – the AFC South champion, likely Jacksonville, probably hosting the LA Chargers – will be a major underdog in their divisional round game.
The Jaguars (No.14 overall, No.9 offence, No.27 defence) have seen Trevor Lawrence starting to reach his potential and if there’s any sort of shock run from them, it’ll be because of Lawrence making the leap into superstardom much like Burrow did last post-season.
The Chargers (No.18 overall, No.19 offence, No.15 defence) are just fine while Tennessee (No.23 overall, No.21 offence, No.16 defence) have fallen off a cliff.
Cowboys too strong for Tennessee | 01:11
The pointlessness of expanding the playoffs to seven teams is likely to be on display in the 2-7 wildcard game, with the Chiefs or Bills almost surely going to dominate whoever of Miami, New England or Pittsburgh limps into the final wildcard spot.
Only the Dolphins have shown enough this season to warrant any sort of respect, and they are so very streaky (and currently without Tua Tagovailoa anyway) it’s impossible to trust them. The Patriots could win the Super Bowl if offence is ruled illegal.
On the NFC side, we’re guaranteed a new conference champion following the Rams’ collapse, and there are three top contenders.
We start with Philadelphia, who’ve lost consecutive games without Jalen Hurts, but had otherwise stumbled just once without their MVP-calibre quarterback this season.
An uber-talented side (No.2 overall, No.3 offence, No.5 defence), they should still earn the top seed in the conference – but that may not provide quite as much of an advantage in the NFC as it does in the AFC.
That’s because the No.5 seed, if it’s not the Eagles themselves, will be Dallas – who are surely good enough to overcome years of agonising defeats and the potential for coach Mike McCarthy to stuff things up again. The Cowboys (No.4 overall, No.14 offence, No.2 defence) would at least be a challenge to Philly in the divisional round, whereas the No.4 seed Tampa Bay (No.17 overall, No.17 offence, No.10 defence) looks a shadow of its Super Bowl champion side.
Perhaps if the Buccaneers can hire a hypnotist to fool the offence into thinking every single play is part of a two-minute drill, they’ll have a chance. It otherwise seems unlikely.
The other leading NFC contender is San Francisco (No.3 overall, No.7 offence, No.1 defence), who are in the curious position of relying so very little on their quarterback because of their incredible talent at every other position that Mr Irrelevant himself Brock Purdy could lead them to glory.
On one hand it’s incredibly impressive that the last player of the draft can keep the 49ers juggernaut moving. He’s the first rookie to win four straight starts since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. But at the same time, it’s worth paying attention to the typical trend with fill-in quarterbacks.
They can start well – as we’ve seen over recent seasons with the Jets’ Mike White and the Cowboys’ Cooper Rush – but once opponents have a few games worth of tape, they know how to attack their flaws.
Snow angel celebration beside injured QB | 00:37
For Purdy, it’s a lack of arm strength and physical attributes. His intelligence has allowed him to take care of the Kyle Shanahan offence quite quickly; but playoff opponents will know he’s not going to challenge them deep.
It’s pretty clear Purdy is more talented than his draft position indicates but he’s not the next Tom Brady or anything to that degree; he might be Jimmy Garoppolo. Which, as we’ve seen over the past two seasons, can be enough for this team to contend.
But just imagine if the 49ers had taken Justin Fields, who many (including this author) thought was the second-best QB in the 2021 draft, instead of Trey Lance (who admittedly could’ve improved over the course of this season if he hadn’t gotten hurt)? Fields’ talent might be enough to get this team over the top.
Anyway; the 49ers, if they get the No.2 seed as you’d expect, may be in line for another playoff showdown with their old foes Green Bay (No.12 overall, No.11 offence, No.18 offence) – who are the favorites for the No.7 spot. That may not be easy, but the Niners should still win it.
They might actually get an easier game in the divisional round, assuming set-to-be-No.3 Minnesota (No.28 overall, No.20 offence, No.25 defence) gets through its wildcard round game against the locked-into-No.6 New York Giants (No.21 overall, No.12 offence, No.29 defence).
The Vikings, as we wrote about earlier this week, are frauds. They’re set to be the luckiest team in NFL history, in terms of Pythagorean wins, and according to Football Outsiders are about to become one of the 10 worst playoff teams in the last 40 years.
None of the other teams on that list went past the divisional round though four of the worst five won a wildcard game – the worst being the 2010 ‘Beastquake’ Seahawks.
If the Giants win, then the 49ers could get Dallas in the divisional round, which would be quite the upgrade in opposition level.
Whichever team earns the No.7 seed – the aforementioned Packers, Detroit (No.9 overall, No.6 offence, No.28 defence) or Seattle (No.10 overall, No.13 offence, No.21 defence) will probably be a more dangerous opponent for the No.2 seed than they’d like, but an upset remains unlikely.
The Packers have been particularly impressive over their recent winning streak to surge back into playoff contention but neither their offence nor defence, even at their best, looks good enough to drive a Super Bowl contender.
