It’s the great debate that will keep emerging at this time of year: bye or no bye?
Footy has long been a survival of the fittest – a grind for 22 matches across the home-and-away season before diving straight into finals. If we’d stuck with that tradition, then I think Geelong and one of Melbourne or Sydney would probably have a foot in the door for the grand final.
The Cats and Swans are both on lengthy winning streaks, while the Demons rediscovered a certain brashness in the final two rounds.
Collingwood have also been riding an incredible wave of emotion that’s come with all of their heart-stopping victories.
Every one of those top-four teams has a level of confidence and momentum that could be stopped in its tracks by the bye.
For others, like the Brisbane Lions, the Western Bulldogs and even Fremantle who’ve been scratchy at times, the week off might just be the circuit breaker they need.
Darcy Moore addresses his teammates.Credit:AFL Photos
But while some have argued the top-four teams no longer have the advantage they should, if they also earn the week off ahead of a preliminary final, I believe the positives of the bye outweigh the negatives.
While the bye might bring those top-four teams back to the pack a little, I’ve enjoyed the evenness and unpredictability of recent finals series.
The top four should have an advantage, but not to the point where it’s completely lopsided.
To me the double chance and a home final (unless you’re Geelong) is reward enough for what’s achieved during the home-and-away season.
The Dogs’ premiership win of 2016 doesn’t happen without the pre-finals bye because of all the players they got back from injury.
This year there would have been no Dustin Martin, Jeremy Cameron or Tom Papley, among others, for the first week of September. The finals are surely better with those names fit and firing.
Likewise, the boost the week off provides other sore and tired bodies ensures the game itself is far better.
So, who will I have my eye on over the next month?
On Thursday night, it’s Joe Daniher.
Joe really needs a big finals series, but not in the way many might think. We know what he’s capable of – the high marks and spectacular goals – but this September should be all about the basics. Joe simply needs to make the percentage plays, whether it be kicking for goal or finding a teammate when required. Let the other stuff become the cream on top.
Dion Prestia, meanwhile, is the barometer for Richmond. While Martin and Shai Bolton get most of the attention, Prestia is arguably the Tigers’ most important player.
With his ball-winning ability and two-way running he’s a vital cog in their machine. Without him everything else can break down.
Dusty and Shai will still need to do their thing for Damien Hardwick’s men to be a chance this September, but so much of that will come from what Prestia does at the coalface.
On Friday night, when reigning premiers Melbourne tackle Sydney, I’ve got a sharp focus on Ben Brown who’s probably had an indifferent year compared to 2021. He’s had his excuses, missing a few games because of his knee issues, but his influence isn’t about kicks, marks and goals.
For Ben, it’s all about competing, particularly against the Swans. He simply can’t allow the McCartins free rein to mark the footy. When he is strong in the contest, the Demons are a much better team.
It means the likes of Kysaiah Pickett and Charlie Spargo can anticipate the drop of the ball to hit the scoreboard or apply pressure. It also frees up Bayley Fritsch.
With Tom McDonald only just making his return in the VFL, Brown is so important structurally to the Dees’ premiership defence.
For the Swans there are so many X-factor players, but it’s Callum Mills who, I believe, is set to play the most crucial role of all.
He’s become an All-Australian this year on the back of playing on the opposition’s best midfielder, while still being prolific himself.
Mills ensures those around him have more freedom and that selfless role will be especially important against a team like Melbourne.
While there’s an argument for him to play on Christian Petracca, I would send him straight to the source – and that’s Clayton Oliver.
On Saturday, it’s the workmanlike Magpies against the Cats.
Craig McRae’s men have been so even across the board this season with contributions from any number of players including Brayden Maynard, Jack Crisp, Scott Pendlebury and Josh Daicos.
But Darcy Moore is the man I’ll be watching most closely.
I don’t think he’s been quite as good as last year, with the gap between his best and his worst a little wider.
He can be that dominant intercept player, turning defence into attack very quickly, but at the same time has been beaten because of the latitude he gives his opponents.
For Darcy it’s all about decision-making – knowing when to go and when to play tight. It’s seemed he’s often played his opponent with a 10-metre leg-rope. From here it must be more like four.
At the other end of the MCG on Saturday is Tom Stewart, who I reckon has been a little off since he’s come back from suspension.
Maybe that bump on Prestia has weighed on him, only he can answer that, but there can be no doubt about the way he attacks the footy this September.
While the Cats don’t have the reliance on him that they once did, for them to be successful I still think Stewart needs to be at his best.
Finally on Saturday night, it’s Rory Lobb who needs to fire for Fremantle.
Bulldogs ruckman Tim English has a big task against Fremantle on Saturday night.Credit:Getty Images
I had originally earmarked Nat Fyfe pre-hamstring, but with the skipper injured Lobb becomes even more important.
He showed what he can do against the Dogs only a few weeks ago and for the Dockers to realise their potential Lobb needs to be clunking them.
For the Bulldogs, Tim English is the man.
He’s had a good year without being outstanding, but when he’s “on” he’s so influential.
He faces a big task up against Sean Darcy in the ruck, particularly now the Dogs’ key extractor Tom Liberatore won’t be at his feet.
For the Dogs to win out west I want to see a Max Gawn-style game from English, pushing forward to kick goals, while dropping back in the hole when his team is under pressure.
