Geelong heads into the 2022 AFL finals series as the heavy favourite to finally end its years of near-misses and claim a second flag under Chris Scott.
Of Fox Footy’s 16 analysts, 13 have tipped the minor premiers to follow in Melbourne’s footsteps and claim the flag after finishing on top of the ladder. That’s despite the Demons being the only team to do it since 2013.
Melbourne and Sydney, who finished second and third on the ladder and face off in Friday night’s qualifying final, were the only other teams tipped to even make the Grand Final.
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This year’s crystal ball is very similar to last year’s, with just three voters not tipping Melbourne in 2021, and three voters not tipping Geelong in 2022.
As for the player of the finals, it’s a wide-open race – as long as you play for Geelong, with six different Cats nominated and spearhead Jeremy Cameron the favourite.
Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver – last year’s winner – was the only non-Cat to receive multiple votes.
The winner has come from the premier in four of six seasons, Collingwood’s Steele Sidebottom (2018) and Sydney’s Josh Kennedy (2016) having the advantage of playing four finals instead of three when they won it despite their teams not claiming the flag.
A team has gone out of the finals in straight sets in three of the last four seasons, but most tipsters believe it won’t happen in 2022.
Sydney received two votes to lose twice in a row – to Melbourne and either Brisbane or Richmond – while Melbourne and Collingwood each earned one nomination.
EXPERT FINALS PREDICTIONS (16 tipsters)
Premier: Geelong Cats 13 votes, Melbourne 2, Sydney Swans 1
Runner-up: Melbourne 10, Sydney Swans 3, Geelong Cats 3
Gary Ayres Medal (Player of the finals): Jeremy Cameron 4, Tom Stewart 3, Clayton Oliver 2, Mark Blicavs, Chad Warner, Mitch Duncan, Lance Franklin, Tom Atkins, Christian Petracca and Tom Hawkins 1
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No 12, Yes Sydney Swans 2, Yes Melbourne and Yes Collingwood 1
DERMOTT BRERETON (Fox Footy)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Geelong Cats
Gary Ayres Medal: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
JONATHAN BROWN (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? Yes, Sydney Swans
BEN COTTON (Foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
BEN DIXON (Fox Footy)
Premier: Sydney Swans
Runner-up: Geelong Cats
Gary Ayres Medal: Lance Franklin (Sydney Swans)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? Yes, Melbourne
CATHERINE HEALEY (Foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Melbourne
Runner-up: Geelong Cats
Gary Ayres Medal: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? Yes, Sydney Swans
ANTHONY HUDSON (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? Yes, Collingwood
DAVID KING (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
JORDAN LEWIS (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
MAX LAUGHTON (Foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Sydney Swans
Gary Ayres Medal: Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
KATH LOUGHNAN (Fox Footy and AFL Tonight)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
ALASTAIR LYNCH (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
LEIGH MONTAGNA (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
CAMERON MOONEY (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Sydney Swans
Gary Ayres Medal: Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
NICK RIEWOLDT (Fox Footy)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Mitch Duncan (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
BEN WATERWORTH (Foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Sydney Swans
Gary Ayres Medal: Chad Warner (Sydney Swans)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
DAVID ZITA (Foxfooty.com.au)
Premier: Geelong Cats
Runner-up: Melbourne
Gary Ayres Medal: Tom Hawkins (Geelong Cats)
Will anyone be knocked out in straight sets, and if so, who? No
